The Jets Cut the Wrong Running Back 😂

It’s trade deadline week here at Upper Hand Fantasy. Time to pull some strings to get your team into the big dance.

What’s in store:

• Tee Higgins probably won’t be playing tomorrow night. Should we be prepared to have him miss Week 12, too? 😦

• The Jets cut one of their running backs… and it wasn’t Dalvin Cook. Michael Carter is off to greener pastures as a result of gang green’s latest move.

• Last-minute trade deadline advice from Zach! Puka Nacua and Brian Robinson headline his list on this fine Wednesday morning.

• The Sun God has found his fantasy ceiling. After a solid first four games, Amon-Ra St. Brown has turned up the heat in his last four. ☀️

• Bengals WR Tee Higgins misses practice Tuesday, expected to be out for Thursday night vs Ravens

  • Higgins was labeled ‘week-to-week’ last Wednesday after suffering a hamstring injury in practice, and with a short turnaround for Cincinnati following a tough home loss against the Texans, Higgins is unlikely to go in Week 11, as well. Ja’Marr Chase will be locked in for a high target share as usual with his primary competition for targets not available for the second straight game, while Trenton Irwin and Tyler Boyd are primed to be solid plays as well with more opportunity. Higgins will likely have a chance to return in Week 12 against the Steelers, but fantasy managers should be prepared for the dynamic No. 2 in Cincinnati to be out until as late as week 13 given the nature of hamstring injuries.

• Jets move on from RB Michael Carter in surprise move ahead of Week 11

  • We’d be lying if we said we saw this one coming – although cutting a running back didn’t seem to be out of the realm of possibility considering Dalvin Cook’s frustration with his workload and his underwhelming performances through the first half of the season. Without Michael Carter eating into the 2-minute and long down and distance snaps, Breece Hall is likely to see a considerable bump in usage. This is assuming that the Jets don’t suddenly pivot to Dalvin Cook in those situations – which would be a mistake considering how inefficient Cook has been. As for Michael Carter, he’ll be added elsewhere in short order and should be prioritized on the waiver wire by teams needing help at the RB position. While he likely won’t be taking on a lead role any time soon, his chops in the passing game can give him intriguing flex appeal in PPR formats.

• Steelers RB Jaylen Warren officially named as team’s starting running back moving forward

  • This seems like a bit of a formality at this point, as Warren was already cutting significantly into Najee Harris’s workload this season – and he’s looked much better than Najee while he’s done it. Warren has essentially filled the 2022 Tony Pollard role on the Steelers in 2023 operating behind Najee Harris, but after being named the starter, a few more touches per game than what he’s been earning so far this season could be thrown his way. Despite the news, Najee Harris is likely to maintain a fantasy-relevant workload even with Warren being named the starter – but it’s going to come down to how efficient he can be on even slightly limited work that will determine how we view Najee moving forward. The bottom line here: Warren and Harris have essentially swapped roles, and they’ll likely continue to be ranked back to back until (or unless) something drastic happens.

• SELL RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS

  • Did you know that Brian Robinson is currently the overall RB6 in total points scored this year? If it hasn’t felt like it, you’re right - that's a misleading stat. He’s actually the RB15 in points per game, and he’s had two outlier performances this season that are inflating his production to mask what’s been a pretty miserable fantasy season for him through ten weeks.

  • Take out Robinson’s game this week where he caught six passes for 119 yards and a touchdown and the game in Week 2 against the Broncos, and suddenly Robinson is only averaging 10.8 points per game as the RB33. But Zach, you’re cherrypicking his best games out of his game log. Well, I’ll ask you this: do those two games look like unpredictable flukes to you? Because they do to me.

  • Robinson had caught more than two passes in a game just once before last week. He was the Commanders’ lead receiver against the Seahawks. That doesn’t happen often at all, and his first big performance was one of three games where he saw more than 15 carries. The usage he’s gotten places him most realistically as a back-end RB2/high RB3. Does he have the upside for the type of performance he had last week? Yeah, obviously - it happened twice this season. But the majority of the time, you’re only getting 9 or 10 points a game from him.

  • And then you look long term at what his schedule the rest of the way looks like: the Commanders have the 6th-hardest remaining strength of fantasy schedule, including two dates with the Cowboys and matchups with the Rams, Niners, and Jets on tap. Sam Howell has also been on fire, so moving off of Robinson now could save you a lot of headache later – and Robinson still hasn’t had his bye yet!

  BUY WR Puka Nacua, LAR

  • The nightmare is over guys: Matthew Stafford is back, Brett Rypien isn’t even on the team anymore, and Carson Wentz isn’t set to start for the first time in 2023. Puka Nacua has gone the past four weeks scoring in the single digits three times and hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 5, so he should be relatively available on the trade market coming off the Rams’ bye. And it’s not like Puka’s quiet games these past four weeks have been solely the product of Brett Rypien – well, ok, the past two have – but there’s precedent for a quiet game with Stafford under center. It happened in Week 6, so the price on Puka shouldn’t be out of reach.

  • Since Cooper Kupp’s return in Week 5, Puka Nacua has had a 30% target share and air yards share, coincidentally, but for obvious reasons I already talked about, the production hasn’t followed that utilization. Those are WR1 numbers, and with Stafford back in the lineup, he should be able to start coming through on that utilization starting this week. But what’s most interesting to me when it comes to buying Puka Nacua is his schedule in the fantasy playoffs: he gets the Commanders in Week 15, who are allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to WRs this year, and then the Giants in Week 17, who are allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to WRs this year! Can’t ask for much better than that in your first playoff game and championship round.

  • He’s been quiet these past few weeks, but the Rams could come alive down the stretch with Stafford back under center – and especially if they’re vying for wild card positioning.

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has been quite possibly the most dependable fantasy WR of 2023 so far, scoring at least 14.2 fantasy points in all of his eight games he’s played and ranking as the overall WR6 in fantasy points per game. While those numbers have obviously been fantastic, St. Brown has taken things to a new level over his last four games, a development that’s been overshadowed by the excellence of WRs like Ceedee Lamb and A.J. Brown in that same time frame.

After averaging just 17.6 fantasy points per game through his first four games –still good for the WR11 in average points per game in that span – and missing Week 5 against the Panthers, St. Brown’s average points per game have skyrocketed to 25.2 over his past four games, good for 3rd in the NFL behind the aforementioned Ceedee Lamb and A.J. Brown in that span. He’s also caught eight passes in three of his last four games as opposed to having just 8+ catches in a game just once through his first four games, and also has two 30+ point outings in the past four games, as well.

He’s definitely found his ceiling, and what’s even better about that is that it hasn’t come at the cost of a lower weekly floor. On the season, St. Brown has had at least six catches and 50 yards OR a touchdown in every game he’s played, and 70+ receiving yards in every game but one this year. Even with the return of Jameson Williams and the emergence of stars in Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown has not only maintained his league-winning fantasy production, but he’s become even more productive. He’s as matchup-proof as a fantasy wide receiver can be, and will likely find himself being ranked as a weekly top-5 receiver for the rest of the season.