The Jets are DEEP in the trenches 🫣

This is it, everyone: your last chance to punch your ticket to the fantasy playoffs. Or, play spoiler for someone else trying to get in!

What’s in store:

• Joe Flacco or Dorian Thompson-Robinson: who will it be? Kevin Stefanski says we won’t know for now - but Flacco played just as good as, if not better than, any QB the Browns have fielded this year.

• Derrick Henry is all clear for Week 14! ⚔️ The matchup against Miami is less than ideal… but we’ll take Henry in our lineups for the final week of the regular season.

• Faraz’s top takeaways from a hectic Week 13. One thing is for certain: Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are deep in the trenches in NY.

• Is the Mahomes-Kelce connection slowing down? Statistically, that’s a very real possibility in 2023.

• Browns HC Kevin Stefanski won’t name week 14 starter as rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson remains in NFL’s concussion protocol

  • Given that Joe Flacco largely played solid football for the Browns and had them in position to win the game against the Rams on Sunday, it’s unlikely that the Browns would be in a rush to get DTR back from his concussion and under center in Week 14. As a 39-year old quarterback fresh off the couch, Flacco’s arm was as lively and accurate as any Browns QB to take snaps for the team this year. His two touchdown passes tied Deshaun Watson for the most by a Browns QB in a game this year, as well, with both DTR and P.J. Walker being unable to throw for more than one touchdown in any of their combined starts. Flacco hyper-targeted WR Elijah Moore and had Amari Cooper off to a respectable start before he left the game with a concussion, and he looked for all intents and purposes like the best shot the Browns have at relevance on the offensive side of the ball the rest of the way. Fantasy managers should pay close attention to reports out of Cleveland this week to have an idea of which quarterback will be dropping back against the Jaguars next Sunday afternoon.

• Titans RB Derrick Henry is on track to play in Week 14 vs Dolphins and is not in the concussion protocol, per HC Mike Vrabel

  • The news comes after Henry’s fantasy managers watched his most productive game of the year get cut short due to injury in Week 13. Now that it’s officially just an injury scare and Henry is on track to play in Week 14 barring a setback from out of left field, fantasy managers can expect to start Henry against the Dolphins as a mid-RB2. Henry has found the end zone four times over the past two weeks while averaging 21 opportunities a game against two squishy run defenses, so while he does enter the game against Miami with some momentum, it could very well be a Tyjae Spears game against the Dolphins if Miami would jump out to an early lead. Given the Dolphins strong defensive play as of Jalen Ramsey’s return to the lineup, the touchdown upside for Henry could be limited in Week 14 in a potentially overwhelmingly negative game script.

• Jets QB Zach Wilson ‘reluctant’ to take the reigns of the Jets’ offense as New York’s coaching staff would like to start him in Week 14

  • Reports have also surfaced that Wilson has expressed his desire to take over once again as starting quarterback to HC Robert Saleh, so it’s almost impossible to guess exactly which signal caller New York will be trotting out in Week 14 against the Texans’ yound and fast defense. The Jets have run clean through their options on the roster and seen no change in the results on the field, with the Jets failing to score more than 13 points in any of their six games since their bye. As a result, the Jets offense has become a wasteland in terms of fantasy value, with even RB Breece Hall being rendered to a mere low-RB2 in the wash. Given what we’ve seen from Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian in their respective time on the field, it’s clear that Zach Wilson gives the Jets their best chance of producing fantasy-relevant players moving forward; but if Wilson isn’t interested in quarterbacking the Jets the rest of the way as certain reports indicate, fantasy managers could be stuck in purgatory with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson for the rest of the season.

Jahmyr Gibbs quiet for second-straight week

• Only 2 targets for Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions did get up early, and Goff only threw the ball 25 times, but this is the first time Gibbs hasn’t seen at least 5 targets since Week 3. I’d expect that to bounce back next week against Chicago - he’s had two somewhat down performances in a row, but I’m still goin to continue to start him in what should be a competitive game in Chicago in Week 14. It’s worth noting that David Montgomery is still the clear lead back on early downs, and it’s really just the receptions that need to be there for Gibbs to have his value - and I think that will come more often than not. Sunday was the first time in a month and a half that the targets just weren’t there for him. They also weren’t there for Amon-Ra St. Brown - very quiet game from him… the Saints took him out of the game.

Breece Hall is stuck in a wasteland

• Breece Hall’s efficiency on the ground has been absolute shit these past few weeks… teams are stacking the box and taking him out of the game. Not surprisingly, nobody is respecting the pass at all… the floor is there in PPR given all the dump offs he’s been in line to get, but we haven’t seen that ceiling from earlier in the season in a while. He’s wasting away with Garrett Wilson in New York right now. But he’s under 3 yards per carry in 5 of his last 6 games… and he handled 13 carries for 16 yards in this one… just absolutely brutal. He’s a RB2 in PPR next week against Houston, but if you’re not in a PPR league, you’re pretty much banking on a breakaway run or reception to salvage his day… he’s extremely capable of that, though, which is why it’s really tough to bench him. It’s crazy to say, but they need Zach Wilson back under center. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see that next week.

Conner and McBride shine vs PIT

• James Conner came out of nowhere with a huge performance against his old team - 25 carries for 105 yards and 2 TDs. Conner also ended up getting some of the passing down work as well with Emari Demercado getting banged up in this game, and even though Michael Carter was involved a little bit , it wasn’t enough to warrant any concern about him being a mainstay piece in this offense.

• Kyler Murray didn’t throw it a whole lot, but when he did he threw it to Trey McBride - 8 catches for 89 and a TD on 9 targets (39% share) for McBride… he’s looking like an elite tight end. Extremely efficient, he’s a target hog, and you’re extremely happy if you have him right now… but also, you’re even more happy in dynasty if you snagged him - he could be someone who you’re starting for years to come.

• Hollywood Brown ended up leaving the game because of that heel injury he came in questionable with… he ended up with no catches and gave you a big donut in your lineup if you started him. He did run 20 routes, so that was 74% of the dropbacks… but if he’s running that many routes, you’d expect him to put up something. Hopefully it didn’t cost you the win.

Moss and Pittman Jr. are utilization kings 👑

• Zack Moss ended up playing a bell cow role with 94% of snaps for the Colts but couldn’t find the end zone, and he wasn’t overly involved in the receiving game. As a result, it didn’t amount to fantasy points - he ended up with 22 opportunities, but the Titans stifled the run in this game: his 19 carries only went for 51 yards. Probably his worst game of the season… but he has a great matchup against the Bengals next week though, so make sure he’s in your lineup for that one. Chase the utilization, not the production as a wide old friend of ours once told me.

• Also, Michael Pittman is a baller. 16 targets, 11 catches, 105 yards and a TD against the Titans Sunday - I talked him having the good matchup and Josh Downs having the tough matchup, and that played out in this one with Downs only catching 3 balls for 14 yards. But damn Pittman has emerged as one of the league’s best WRs… he’s a clear alpha, and is getting the job done. He’s a weekly fantasy WR1. Solid matchup next week against the Bengals, too, although Josh Downs will be more in play for that game than this past one against Tennessee.

If you haven’t already noticed, the Chiefs offense and Patrick Mahomes are in a bit of a funk – and the problem is more than just dropped passes this season (although that’s definitely not helping the situation, either). Through 13 weeks of the fantasy regular season, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce still rank among the league’s best in terms of fantasy points per game - but they haven’t dominated at the level we’ve grown accustomed to seeing them dominate over the past few years.

So far through 13 games, Patrick Mahomes is averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game, tying him as the QB7 in that statistic in that span with Sam Howell and Jordan Love. Over the past five seasons (2018-2022), Mahomes averaged 23.5 fantasy points per game compared to the lowly 19.3 fantasy points he’s averaging per game this year - an 18% decrease in production this season compared to the past five years on average for Mahomes.

That’s coincided with a significant dip in production for what has historically been the top fantasy football tight end in the NFL since 2018, Travis Kelce. Since 2018 over the last five years, Kelce has averaged 18 fantasy points per game compared to 16.7 per game this year; not as sharp a decrease in overall production, but still notable. The most notable detail, however, about Travis Kelce’s 2023 season is the fact that he has rejoined the rest of the TE pack at the top of the fantasy scoreboards – and that he hasn’t operated as the positional advantage he was drafted to be this season.

From 2018-2022, the average PPR point margin between Travis Kelce and the next-highest scoring tight end in fantasy football through 13 weeks was 36.2 points. This year, Travis Kelce is the leader in fantasy points per game at the position by 1.1 points per game, but he has not separated himself from the rest of the pack as he has done in years past. In other words, the positional advantage that many of Kelce’s managers drafted him to provide simply hasn’t been there this season - a microcosm of a Kansas City offense that has scored just 22.9 team points per game in 2023.