Hear me out: the Raiders trade Josh Jacobs for Jonathan Taylor bearing in mind that the fantasy landscape will remain wonderfully intact!

Wishful thinking? 🥹

What’s in store:

• Jonathan Taylor has been granted permission to seek a trade! It was an unfortunate letdown for Jacobs managers yesterday morning.

• 5 late round running back targets to take fliers on. Faraz delivers his list of ballcarriers to consider drafting after round 10.

• The BEST value draft picks in each round, 1-6! Zach brings us his list of bargain ADPs that you can take advantage of today.

• Which Commanders WR should you be drafting? Find out who Tyler prefers between McLaurin and Dotson!

• Colts give RB Jonathan Taylor permission to seek trade, ending stalemate between two sides

  • While this is a great development for Jonathan Taylor, the situation remains incredibly complicated due to the logistics of moving a player of his caliber – especially in the market that we’ve seen unfold over the course of the offseason. The Colts are reportedly asking for a 1st round pick or a combination of picks equivalent to a 1st round pick. Given that Taylor would likely require a new contract, it’s going to be difficult for Indianapolis to find a realistic suitor for the talented running back. The most obvious landing spots are Kansas City and Miami, but it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs shelling out big money for a running back when they’ve proven that they can reach and win a Super Bowl without the services of a top-tier RB. Miami would be an excellent destination for Taylor, who would immediately step in as the unquestioned lead back on an already loaded Dolphins offense.

• NFL Media tries to speak the end of Josh Jacobs’ holdout into existence, but Jacobs himself says “not so fast”

  • Multiple reports emerged yesterday indicating that Josh Jacobs planned to report to Raiders camp ahead of Week 1, but the man himself in question, Josh Jacobs, took to X (formerly Twitter) and indicated that the situation had not changed. This is one of the murkiest storylines of the offseason, and there will be no way of knowing for sure whether or not Jacobs will be available in Week 1 until he’s back with the team and practicing. However, this is the closest we’ve come to anything in the way of progress in Jacobs’ holdout, so for his fantasy managers, this is something to hang their hat on until more clarity is offered.

• Rams WR Cooper Kupp expected to return to practice this week

  • Kupp has missed the entire month of August with a hamstring injury, but with plenty of time to rest and no reason to rush his return, he should be back to 100% by the time Week 1 rolls around for the Rams. When he’s on the field, he is quite possibly the best fantasy football player in the league – and in a situation that remains largely unchanged, Kupp is set up to once again be the focal point of the Rams offense and garner heavy target volume. The threat of re-injury does loom given Kupp’s age, but there’s no reason to allow that to impact where he is taken at the top of drafts.

• The drumbeat for Eagles RB Kenneth Gainwell to lead the RB room grows louder

  • Eagles beat reporter Bo Wulf echoed recent reports that Kenneth Gainwell has ascended to the top spot on the Eagles depth chart, going as far as saying that Gainwell will “end up playing the most. Because he is the most reliable.” The possibility of Gainwell starting the year as the No. 1 back would be one of the most surprising developments of the offseason, considering that the Eagles went out of their way to trade for D’Andre Swift during the draft and signed Rashaad Penny in free agency. However, reports have indicated that Gainwell’s momentum is stemming from his familiarity with the system and reliability over the past two years – which leaves the door open for either Swift or Penny to establish roles for themselves during the season.

• Jaylen Warren - 11th round

  • Warren already took over the passing down role last year, even in Najee’s healthy games. His ranks in yards after contact, missed tackles forced, yards/touch, and yards/route run all indicators that Warren can be more than one of the best 3-down handcuffs in fantasy. I’d expect a further push into Najee’s workload

• Jeff Wilson - 14th round

  • Wilson was the preferred RB when him and Mostert were on the field together last year, and De’Von Achane replicates a lot of what Mostert can do and more. I’d expect Wilson to be the bigger back complement to Achane, and the goal line back on a very good offense.

• Tyjae Spears - 14th round

  • Derrick Henry is way past the carry and age threshold, and should already be over the RB cliff - but he’s the king for a reason. Spears profiles as the passing down RB as soon as Week 1, but would step in as a talented 3-down RB if Henry were to go down.

• Jerome Ford - 15th round

  • Ford is the clear #2 RB behind Nick Chubb, and could be taking over the Kareem Hunt role. I’m not depending on any standalone value, but if Chubb gets hurt, we could see Ford take over on a good offense behind a great offensive line. Viewing Ford as a high-value handcuff.

• Chase Brown - 17th round

  • Brown can handle a big workload, and would be a high-value early down handcuff on a good offense if Mixon were to go down. Given how inefficient Mixon was last year, as well as him approaching the RB drop-off carry threshold, Brown is someone I’d be rostering in case Mixon can’t hold up.

Round 1: RB Bijan Robinson, 7.8

Runner-Up: WR Stefon Diggs, 8.5

- Bijan is suffering just slightly in his ADP because of the presence of two other capable RBs in Atlantas backfield (Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson), but all signs are pointing – and have been pointing – to him being the Falcons workhorse back. Miss me with his RB3 placement on the Atlanta’s keyword “unofficial” depth charts; he wasn’t selected at 8th overall to sit behind a late-round running back from the draft prior and a long-time veteran. Robinson’s combination of talent, draft capital, and situation makes him as bulletproof a pick at RB as Justin Jefferson is at WR – he can finish as the overall RB1. And coming off the board in the latter half of the first round, he’s a bargain at his price. Stefon Diggs is the runner up here, but doesn’t trump Bijan because of the scarcity that exists at RB.

Round 2: RB Tony Pollard, 16.5

Runner-Up: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, 13.3

- Pollard’s upside makes him worthy of a 1st-round pick in 2023, but his ADP is still lagging behind because we have yet to see him handle a workload over 200 carries. Lucky for us, we can take advantage of that lag and get ahead of his true fantasy breakout, which is imminent with essentially all of his competition for volume disappearing with Ezekiel Elliott’s departure. He finished with Top 2 marks in yards per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, breakaway run %, and yards per reception, making him one of the most efficient backs in the NFL. With a goal line role, his touchdowns could increase significantly en route to a potential overall RB1 finish. And in the 2nd round, that’s a fantastic payoff.

Round 3: WR Keenan Allen, 35.7

Runner-Up: RB Josh Jacobs, 31.1

- Josh Jacobs would be the surefire pick here if the reports of his holdout coming to an end were more substantial. But the uncertainty surrounding his situation is enough to make him less of a value in the third round than Keenan Allen, who has proven that – when healthy – he is Justin Herbert’s favorite target on an offense that is extremely pass-heavy. The addition of Kellen Moore should only make things easier on Allen, who was the PPR WR4 from Weeks 11-18 when he returned to action off his injury. In that span, he also led the Chargers in target share by a full 10 percentage points (24.8%) and racked up an exceptional 38.9% air yards share. Nothing is stopping Allen from doing the same in 2023, who should have another fantasy WR1 season in him while Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston duke it out for the No. 2 spot in the pecking order.

Round 4: QB Justin Fields, 43.6

Runner-Up: RB Joe Mixon, 41.9

- The value in the fourth round gets scarce, with almost every player in this range having a reasonable path to underperforming this year (these are your D.J. Moores, your Terry McLaurins, and your Drake Londons). Mixon has one of the safest floors in the 4th round, making him the runner up – but no other player in this range has the scoring ceiling of Justin Fields. Assuming he can stay healthy, we should be looking at close to another ~1000 yard season on the ground from him, and with new help along the offensive line and at WR (the aforementioned D.J. Moore), Fields has overall QB1 upside with a floor that should be safely buoyed by his rushing production. And in the fourth round, you could build an excellent 4-round start with the flexibility of knowing you can get Fields’ rushing upside relatively late compared to the other top ball carriers at QB.

Round 5: WR Diontae Johnson, 55.6

Runner-Up: RB Alexander Mattison, 59.6

- I was very tempted to put Alexander Mattison here as the top value in Round 5, but there isn’t enough of a sample size with Mattison in the lead role for me to confidently label him that way. For Diontae Johnson, though, there’s no shortage of evidence of him being a proven fantasy commodity. We’ve seen him operate as a target-earning machine for the past two years, earning 25+% target share in both 2021 and 2022. Not only is positive regression due for Johnson after not scoring a touchdown last season, but Kenny Pickett also seems to have improved his game from Year 1 to Year 2 (three drives with the starters, three touchdowns in two preseason games). Sure, George Pickens can make flashy plays, but Johnson should be a lock once again for the heavy target volume that has allowed him to be fantasy relevant since he joined the Steelers.

Round 6: RB J.K. Dobbins, 67.3

Runner-Up: TE George Kittle, 62.8

- It was a very close battle between Kittle and Dobbins for the best value in the 6th round, but Dobbins has breakout written all over him this season in a more balanced Ravens offense. Don’t get it twisted – Kittle is still a value as well, but the price you’re paying for his services, while palatable, doesn’t qualify as a steal like Dobbins’s price. Dobbins is an explosive runner with a career yards per carry over 5.0, and new OC Todd Monken has also expressed interest in getting him involved int he receiving game, as well. With his mini-holdout resolved and little competition for touches around him in the RB room, Dobbins has a relatively clear path to finishing as an RB1 if he can stay healthy.

Terry McLaurin

McLaurin has always been a ‘good but not great’ fantasy WR throughout his career, finishing as the WR29 in 2019, the WR20 in 2020, the WR25 in 2021, and now the WR14 in 2022.

Prior to 2022, he had been one of the most inconsistent WRs in fantasy, but last season he showed something different – going for 9+ points in 14 games and 10+ points in 12 games, offering a relatively stable WR2 floor for owners.

My concern is that a good portion of his success came without Jahan Dotson, whether he was inactive or severely limited due to injury. When Dotson was involved in the offense (3+ targets), McLaurin was actually the lesser of the two in terms of production, ranking 16th in points and 24th in PPG compared to Dotson’s 13th and 20th respectively. It’s not an overly notable difference, nor was McLaurin’s performance poor, but it is worth noting as Eric Bieniemy’s scheme favors the interior routes, which aligns more with Dotson than McLaurin.

Going as a low-end WR2 (WR22 on ECR, WR24 on ADP) in the late-4th/early-5th round range, I don’t necessarily dislike the price on McLaurin and have him valued at that point. However, I will likely go with an option with more upside and comparable security (especially given the QB situation in Washington), such as Calvin Ridley or Jerry Jeudy, who command similar prices.

Jahan Dotson

After being selected 16th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, Dotson had one of the more conflicting seasons among WRs. He showed major flashes of potential but was also limited by poor QB play and injuries, which cost him 5 games early in his rookie season.

When he was involved, he was fantastic. In the 9 games where he registered 3+ targets, he posted 10+ points in all but two of them and ranked as the WR13 in points across those games, even exceeding fellow WR Terry McLaurin in production.

By no means am I saying he will be a better fantasy WR than McLaurin this year, but the potential is certainly there. With him already proving very productive when active (and not limited), plus the introduction of an Eric Bienemy offense that revolves around short-to-intermediate range passes to the center of the field (Dotson’s area), it would not be a shock to see the former 1st round pick emerge as a WR2 for fantasy.

In the late-7th/early-8th round range as a fringe-WR3/WR4 option, I am heavily targeting Dotson as a sleeper WR in most of my drafts. It appears that the volume will be there and with him being one of the better possession receivers in the NFL, I believe Dotson can (and will)

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Certain quarterbacks tend to play especially well against their divisional opponents (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen), which can lead to consistent big fantasy days over the course of a season given that each QB plays six divisional games a year. Not suprisingly, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes were two of the top-5 quarterbacks in points per game against opponents in their respective divisions – but No. 4 on the list might turn some heads 👀.

Despite an overall down year in 2022, Russell Wilson finished 4th among all QBs in points per game against divisional opponents with a whopping 21.4 points per game – the same production point as Jalen Hurts against the NFL East. Wilson’s run against AFC West opponents featured his only 4 top-5 weekly finishes of the season, including two against Kansas City (one of which he was injured in and left early).

While the rest of Wilson’s 2022 didn’t go exactly according to plan (to say the least), the fact that he was able to produce at an elite level against teams he will be seeing more often than any other is a silver lining – and offers optimism that with a better coaching staff and system around him, Russell Wilson can turn things around in 2023.