Jonnu Smith is headed to South Beach 🏝️

One more weekend, and then it’s all going down next week. Free agency is officially here, and we can’t wait to see where some of the top names end up.

What’s in store:

• Are Russell Wilson and Mike Tomlin on a crash course? 🧐 There’s reportedly mutual interest between Pittsburgh and the former Super Bowl winner.

• Arthur Smith loses out on the Jonnu Smith sweepstakes. Was he ever in it? We’ll probably never know, but the veteran TE is heading to Miami.

• Ranking the top-3 receivers from this year’s draft class. 🥇🥈🥉 Faraz takes us through his rationale and where he places your favorite fantasy prospects from the 2024 draft.

• A sneak peek at the dynasty startup primer from the Upper Hand Dynasty Kit! Keep reading for an exclusive look at some of Faraz’s top tips.

• Free Agent QB Russell Wilson, Steelers have mutual interest in each other, expected to meet in days leading up to free agency

  • Is Russell Wilson the BEST answer for the Steelers QB woes at this current juncture? Probably not – but they have a roster that’s proven itself perfectly capable of contending right now, and Wilson has both the pedigree and the experience to at least give Pittsburgh a fighting chance at a competent offense and to contend for a deep playoff run (insert Arthur Smith meme here). Wilson hasn’t looked the part of Mr. Unlimited over the past three seasons – in fact, he’s looked more like Mr. Limited – but the reality of the situation is that Mike Tomlin has a shotgun up his you-know-what and even serviceable QB play could be enough to save him from getting the axe come next January, no matter how impressive his winning season streak is. So it should come as no surprise that the Steelers have interest in a former Super Bowl winning QB that needs a change of scenery, and the Steelers have the weapons on offense to satisfy any free agent signal caller looking for a new home. Pittsburgh has also been tied to Justin Fields, among others, so this is still a developing situation – but if both parties would hit it off, we very well may see Russell Wilson donning the black and gold at Heinz fi- erm, Acrisure Stadium, next year.

• TE Jonnu Smith signs with Dolphins on 2-year, $10M deal

  • A surprise career year in Atlanta alongside Kyle Pitts as part of the Arthur Smith scheme gave Smith new life on the market, and he’ll now take his talents to South Florida where the Dolphins have largely operated without a tight end with Mike McDaniel at the helm. There’s clearly a role for him to assume in the offense, and the fact that he’s under contract for not one, but two years suggests that McDaniel could have a vision for him as a real contributor to the offense. Lucky for fantasy managers, there isn’t a unicorn ahead of Smith on the depth chart that he’ll be displacing by taking the field, and this landing spot for Smith may have just solidified his status as the first sleeper at the tight end position going into 2024 (barring unforeseen circumstances like the Dolphins somehow landing Brock Bowers). Smith is coming off his most productive season from a total receptions and receiving yards standpoint and will look to bolster Miami’s passing attack in 2024.

• WR Michael Thomas is expected to be released by the Saints this offseason

  • The Michael Thomas falloff will have to be studied in the years to come, as injuries have plagued the former NFL offensive player of the year since his record-setting campaign in 2019. Since catching 149 passes that year, Thomas has managed just 95 total catches and four touchdowns in the ensuing four seasons, of which he has missed 47 of a potential 67 games – including the entirety of the 2021 season. Put bluntly, he hasn’t been fantasy relevant for the past four years and was most recently outperformed by both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed in 2023 in the fantasy department. At 31 years old with a medical history longer than a CVS receipt, the market for Thomas as a free agent will likely be quite dry in the early going. Expect Thomas to potentially garner interest later on in the second wave of the free agency cycle or potentially even closer to the start of thr 2024 season over the summer. Given his injury history and limited production as of late, he’ll profile as a flier both in real life and in fantasy – assuming he does eventually sign somewhere.

Marvin Harrison has been the top dog for a while now. He’s the #1 WR on most draft boards, and there are plenty of good reasons why; he’s the most complete WR prospect in this class, and maybe the most complete we’ve seen in a while. 

He’s an elite route runner who runs a full route tree, and his hands are pretty much made of glue. And his body control combined with his frame gives him the ability to make incredible contested catches on a routine basis. Press coverage is not an issue with Harrison.

Among 1069 eligible Power 5 WRs over the last 20 years, Harrison ranked 28th in career yards/route run. His 39% career dominator rating and his 31% career targets/route run are both best in class. But as good as Harrison is, some of the other prospects in this class aren’t far behind him – and you should be excited about that.

Malik Nabers is more of my WR1B to Harrison than a clear step down as a WR2. Some people might use his 57% career slot snaps against him, but you just can’t – he’s the best of this group in short area quickness and separating upon release.

He broke out at 19 - combine that with 1st round draft capital, and he’s sitting pretty historically. He’s one of the best after the catch over the last 20 years - among 1069 eligible Power 5 WRs, he ranks 25th in missed tackles forced/reception.

He ranked 1st among all Power 5 WRs in yards/route run this past season, but his career production and efficiency numbers are straight up bonkers across the board. Among 2200+ WRs over the last 20 years, these are Malik Nabers’ rankings and raw numbers:

• Targets - 66th (275)

• Receptions - 46th (190)

• Yards - 15th (3015)

• YAC - 39 (1252)

• TDs - 53 (21)

• YAC/rec - 192 (6.6)

• YPRR - 39 (2.83)

• MTF/rec - 25 (0.31)

Pretty ridiculous.

Of course, we cant forget about Rome Odunze, who had one of the best seasons of any Power 5 WR over the last 20 years with a 140/92/1639/13 line. All four of those numbers are Top-5 individually in 2023. Odunze is also in the top 10% of Power 5 WRs over the last 20 years in yards/route run.

He’s also a very good route runner, and has a combination of body control + large catch radius + high point with downfield ability that makes him special.

• Don't draft young players in the hopes that they will all turn into studs. I like to aim to win now, as soon as Year 1. Mix in young studs with productive veterans.

• Situations can change very quickly. The biggest constant with a player is his talent. However, don't undervalue a player's situation in dynasty. If talent meets awesome situation, that player inherently has more value. At the same time, don't overvalue less talented players in good situations.

• You should always be looking to win now, but have seeds for the future. However, it's probably better to value winning more than those seeds who haven't become productive studs just yet. Would you rather try to win a championship or wait/hope that the hype on a young player comes to fruition soon? Always a question to keep in the front of your mind. Understand who will produce highly for you now and over the next year or two, and value them more.

• There's nothing wrong with trading early startup picks for mid rounders to accumulate more extremely solid players for less elite players.

• Young stud WRs are the cornerstone of any dynasty team. However, if the aim is to win right away, don't use the zero-RB strategy; aim to get a few solid RBs somewhat early on. One strategy is to go hero RB - just one stud/elite RB early, and then wait several rounds before your next one. If you ended up accumulating extra middle round picks, there will be some young WRs to choose from if you do take more than one RB earlier on.