Jonnu Smith is a Steeler & Miami's new Tight End 🐬

• Steelers acquire former Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith in trade involving late-round pick swap, S Minkah Fitzpatrick and CB Jalen Ramsey

  • Arthur Smith just couldn’t resist reuniting for the third time with his former TE from his time in Tennessee and Atlanta. Smith finds his way to Pittsburgh after weeks of rumors surrounding contract negotiations between the tight end and the Dolphins, signing a one-year, $12.5M deal to don the black and gold in 2025. Arthur Smith’s dreams of a TE by committee have come to fruition at the cost of both Jonnu Smith' and Pat Friermuth’s fantasy values, who are likely to split reps in some capacity and be parasites to each other’s top-10 TE aspirations. Because of the anticipated two-headed monster at TE, D.K. Metcalf doesn’t get hit too hard in terms of the kind of target share we should expect him to see in 2025 – however, anything close to a full time role for Jonnu could hinder him a bit. At the end of the day, though, it’s a move from ‘zero’ target competition to ‘some’, making it likely not worth losing sleep over. As for the Dolphins offense, Darren Waller is expected to fill in the role the Jonnu Smith occupied in 2024, but it would be naive to expect Waller to step in right away after spending a year away from the game and start producing the same way Jonnu did. Instead, those vacated targets could (and should) be distributed among the Dolphins’ top three weapons in Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane. At the end of the day, however, it all comes down to Tua Tagovailoa both A) staying healthy and B) having ample time to throw. Without time to throw last year, Tua’s downfield target rate suffered considerably and needs to come back up for Hill, Waddle, and co. to capitalize.

• Dolphins trade for and sign former Giants TE Darren Waller in late-round pick swap as Waller comes out of retirement to join Miami

  • In what amounts essentially to a corresponding move to the Jonnu Smith trade, Miami has found its presumptive new TE1 in former Giants and Raiders TE Darren Waller. Waller was scooped out of retirement, and at age 33, we’ll see if the former top-2 fantasy tight end has anything left in the tank as he looks to replace Smith in the Dolphins offense. The last time we saw Waller was back in 2023 when he was catching passes from Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, and Tommy Devito in New York; he lasted one season with the Giants and put up just 552 receiving yards and one touchdown in 12 games of action. Waller hasn’t played a full season of games since his best years in 2020 and 2021 with the Raiders, and he’s only gotten older since. He’ll also be competing with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane for targets from Tua Tagovailoa; a tall task, to be sure, but one that can be completed as evidenced by Jonnu Smith’s 111 targets last year in the same capacity. While Waller has long been an intriguing talent and fantasy pick over the years, it’s hard to imagine a situation where he gets peppered like Jonnu did as the Dolphins’ lead tight end, and he profiles as nothing more than an upside dart throw at the position for teams looking to add some upside late in drafts or off the waivers.

• Jaguars RB Travis Etienne expected to remain as the team’s ‘top back’ going into the 2025 season, per the Florida Times-Union’s Demetrius Harvey

  • The statement was made more so in reference to Etienne’s current standing on the depth chart and left the door open for the potential for Etienne to fall down a spot or two depending on ‘how the team’s run game evolves.’ Specifically, Harvey made a point to reference that Etienne' could find a home as the team’s receiving back – something that he’s proven himself capable of early in his NFL career and in college despite a lackluster showing in 2024. Given the fact that Etienne is, after all, a former first round pick himself, it would make sense for him to get the first crack at the team’s lead role in 2025 –however, as we saw last year in Tampa Bay, Liam Coen won’t be afraid to give more playing time to players who deserve opportunity. That’s how Bucky Irving came to be, and with Bhayshul Tuten boasting a very strong and efficient college profile, any underperformance based on the team’s expectations of Etienne could land him in a Rachaad White type of role this season behind either Tuten or even Tank Bigsby. Bigsby saw the most carries last season, but going into 2025, it’s truly anyone’s game. With Etienne’s price in the low-RB3 range, it’s hard to go wrong with him because his upside is well within the RB2 range. But with three capable runners in the backfield, it would take a lot for Etienne to play head and shoulders above the other two RBs this year.

Can the Bengals duplicate their 2024 success in the passing game in 2025?

Joe Burrow played all 17 games in 2024 and had a career year - 4900 passing yards, 43 passing TDs - the Bengals were basically the most pass heavy team in the NFL - it’s why both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins finished Top-5 in fantasy points per game. Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Godwin, Justin Jefferson, and then Tee Higgins with 19.3 fantasy points per game were the leaders in fantasy points per game last season - and actually, both Higgins and Jefferson averaged 19.3 fantasy points between Weeks 1 and 17. Just wild.

The problem is - can we depend on Higgins to play and produce when we need him to? That’s been the only real knock with him. He’s also up and down - he came through so big in the fantasy playoffs last year… WR15, WR11, and overall WR1 in the championship round with 40 points. He followed that up with 9.3 fantasy points the game after, by the way… and of course, this is the type of volatile player that you’re perfectly fine with in your lineup each week for the upside. He had a WR50 finish in between a WR2, WR16, WR15 finish - but hey, again, he’s part of the most pass heavy offense in the league, and he had a solid 24% target share, which ranked 28th among WRs last year – but because the Bengals passed it so much, he ranked 9th in targets/game. 5th in expected fantasy points/game, too. He was only behind Malik Nabers, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Davante Adams in that category last year.

Now, Higgins is going off the board at WR13 in best ball, and I totally get that - he’s going to pull in some big weeks. In redraft though, it’s hard for me to pull him off the board ahead of guys like Chase Brown and Breece Hall. It’s really just a lot to do with how much I’ve been able to trust (or not trust) Higgins over the years, but if I knew he was going to be healthy all year, I would be perfectly fine with this price. At the end of the day, once WRs like Drake London, Ladd McConkey are off the board, that price tag sits fine with me - but then you have guys like Davante Adams and Rashee Rice still on the board when he’s coming off, so I’m not sure if I’m ok with that. He’s not a full avoid for me at that price of the WR13 - and I’m not one to label guys injury prone - but man, the highs have been high, and the lows have been low with Higgins. But there’s no doubt he’s a must-start player anytime he’s healthy, and has the upside to be the overall WR1 any given week.

The other thing to consider is whether or not Joe Burrow is going to throw 40+ TDs again. There were only two QBs ever to throw 40+ TDs two years in a row: Tom Brady threw 40 and 43 TDs in 2020 and 2021, and Drew Brees threw 43 and 46 in 2011 and 2012. That’s it. Two of the greatest to ever do it.

Is Joe Burrow going to be join this list? He definitely can, but history isn’t on his side - the chances of him actually doing it isn’t great. The yardage too - Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford the only two QBs who have thrown for 4900 yards or more multiple seasons in a row. So the chance he repeats last year is not high, just by the historic numbers. He finished as the QB3 in points per game last season behind Lamar and Josh Allen, he’s the QB5 off the board, but I just don’t like drafting non-rushing QBs so early - the 42nd player off the board? Joe Burrow? Way too early. He’s not even going that high on Underdog - they got it right around 62, I think that’s fine, but in single QB redraft he’s going way higher, and he’s a full avoid for me there. I’d rather wait on QB opposed to paying an inflated price after what could be his career year.

I will say though - if anyone has the perfect storm brewing, it’s Burrow - extremely pass first in neutral situations, and then you consider how bad the defense is going to be, always chasing points, always in competitive games - it’s an amazing situation for any elite passer.