Is it About to be Josh Kelley SZN? ⚡️

Currently daydreaming of a Falcons backfield where Bijan Robinson is used how he should be.

What’s in store:

• Injuries aplenty heading into Week 2 🩼. Read on to see which players are in jeopardy of missing time.

• Target Drake London? He had 0 points in Week 1! Hear Tyler out on this one.

• Travis Etienne did something last week he’s never done in his career! See what might have led to Etienne’s big opening day fantasy performance.

• Chargers RB Austin Ekeler misses practice for second-straight day on Thursday

  • While he still has one more day to log at least a limited practice ahead of the Chargers Week 2 game against the Titans, it‘s trending more and more in the direction of Josh Kelley assuming the led role in LA’s backfield. After both receiving the same number of touches in the Chargers’ Week 1 game against the Dolphins, Kelley’s stock was already on its way up; he was also one of the top waiver wire additions this week. Kelley might not be the talent that Ekeler is, but on an offense that ran the ball as effectively as the Chargers did in Week 1, he has the potential to finish as a Top-12 back. This would be Ekeler’s first game missed since Week 16 of the 2021 season.

• Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins misses practice for second-straight day on Thursday

  • Like Austin Ekeler, DeAndre Hopkins still has a chance to play Sunday, but he would be sorely missed in a matchup against a Chargers secondary fresh off a torching at the hands of Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill. Hopkins commanded 13 targets in his first game in Tennessee and put up relatively modest production on that high volume. If Hopkins would miss, Treylon Burks would become a very solid WR3/flex play with upside in what should be a higher scoring game than the Titans season opener against the Saints.

• Packers RB Aaron Jones, WR Christian Watson miss practice Thursday

  • As we get closer to Sunday and continue to see Jones and Watson fail to log even limited practices, it seems like both are trending towards being unavailable in Week 2. Watson, the presumed WR1 in the Packers offense when he returns, missed last week, but the Packers offense hummed right along thanks to 86 receiving yards from Aaron Jones. If Jones would miss, the target distribution could be tight between Romeo Doubs and Luke Musgrave – and bear in mind, Doubs was likely on a snap count in Week 1 as he made his way back from injury. A.J. Dillon would be worth a look as a low-ceiling RB2 if he draws the start for the Packers against the Falcons.

• Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks diagnosed with sprained MCL, status uncertain for Week 2

  • Cooks popped up on the injury report yesterday for the Cowboys after a quiet outing in Week 2. While the injury doesn’t appear to be serious and likely isn’t a multi-week injury, it could be enough to keep him from playing at 100% this week. The Cowboys haven’t ruled out the possibility of Cooks missing the game entirely, either – but even if he does suit up, he’ll face a very tough matchup against the Jets outside corners. He’s looking like a prime sit candidate this week even if he is healthy.

• 1. Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, Detroit Lions

  There was a mass panic within the fantasy football community when the Lions opened the 2023 regular season against the Chiefs and 12th overall pick Jahmyr Gibbs played a secondary role (7 carries, 2 catches, 27% snap share) to David Montgomery (21 carries, 79% snap share) and saw the veteran find the endzone.

  I wrote an article a few days back on the Gibbs situation, but I'll reiterate the narrative here. There was far more good than bad in the debut for Gibbs. He was electric, hyper-efficient (6.0 YPC), posted a serviceable 8 points in PPR scoring, and was a mere stumble away from a walk-in touchdown that would've seen a completely different narrative for the rookie's debut.

  It'll likely be a few weeks before Gibbs is truly involved to the extent that we were expecting (and HC Dan Campbell had noted before the opener that Detroit would be "smart" to limit Gibbs' workload early), but that type of production in such a limited role and within a negative game script (for Gibbs) is promising for Gibbs' season-long prospects.
  

  I'm targeting the rookie very hard in all leagues that I don't have him. He's likely a season-long top-15 RB at the price of a low-end RB2/FLEX after Week 1.

   

  2. Drake London - WR, Atlanta Falcons

  It couldn't have been much of an uglier Week 1 for Drake London, drawing just 1 target and failing to bring it in. Part of his lack of utilization can be attributed to the extremely run-heavy game plan in Week 1 with the Falcons attempting just 18 total passes (to 26 runs).

  Going forward, Atlanta doesn't appear to be likely to find themselves in many games where they led for the majority of the game and didn't need to throw (like they did against Carolina), which means that 90% route participation will be translating into targets when the game script is flipped in favor of the passing game, especially when he registered an incredible 28.2% target share last year (3rd in the NFL).

  It likely won't translate to the top-20 production that we were hoping for out of London entering the season, but at the very least London should be a serviceable WR3/FLEX option going forward - something that will likely be easy to acquire with owners panicking after a donut in Week 1.

   

  3. Jaylen Waddle - WR, Miami Dolphins
  

  This Miami offense looks very fast and very good. And that came with Jaylen Waddle not seeing a massive workload (5 targets, 4 catches) in Week 1 while Tyreek Hill went for an absurd 11-215-2 (on 15 targets).

  11.8 points typically is outside the threshold of a 'buy low', especially for someone like Waddle, but with how good the Dolphins' passing attack looked and how limited Waddle was involved, now may likely be the last chance to acquire what will likely be a season-long top-10 WR at a reasonable price. Tyreek Hill had his game in Week 1 (and will likely have a few more throughout the season) but Waddle will certainly have his fair share of games as a very high-scoring WR.

  He was the WR8 in 2022 while Tua was healthy, averaging over 19 PPG in those games, and that appears very well within the cards this season. I'm buying him at a mid-WR2 price tag after an average Week 1.

   

  4. Tee Higgins - WR, Cincinnati Bengals

  Week 1 was horrific for the entire Bengals' offense as they only managed 142 total yards and 82 via the air in Joe Burrow's worst game of his career. It wasn't any better for Higgins individually, failing to record a single catch even despite EIGHT targets.
  

  Higgins was exceptional in 2022 when on the field (10+ points in every game he fully played, 2nd-most consistent fantasy WR, WR4 in games he fully played) and the Bengals' offense will turn it around after a rough Week 1 - we saw a similar story (not necessarily to this extent) last year with Joe Burrow's 4 opening day INTs in 2022.
  

  You're not going to get Higgins for quite as much of a discount due to his 0-point performance as another 0-point producer like Drake London, but I'd be willing to bet you can acquire Higgins in most cases for the price tag of a mid-WR2 - a price I would be salivating over given the likely top-10 value he provides the rest of the way.

   

  5. AJ Dillon - RB, Green Bay Packers
  

  Especially if you are an Aaron Jones owner - this is for you.
  

  Dillon was one of my favorite "handcuff" options heading into the season, realistically offering top-10 value in the situation of an Aaron Jones injury, but also offering likely FLEX value on his own. The injury hasn't happened (in its entirety, with Aaron Jones suffering what appears to be a minor hamstring injury in Week 1), but the upside is certainly there should Jones miss any time.

  But I'm not targeting Dillon simply to be an injury-based option. The Packers' offense and Jordan Love looked very good in the opener against Chicago and, while I wouldn't anticipate them to continue to produce at that level over the entire season, it's a promising sign. In that offensive explosion, Dillon's stat line wasn't overly exciting with 13 carries for 19 yards and 2 catches (3 targets) for 17 yards, but he was heavily involved, leading the backfield in carries, touches, receptions, and snap share (48%). Dillon also got 3 attempts inside the 5-yard line but was unable to convert and ultimately saw Aaron Jones get a 1-yard TD after back-to-back goal-line attempts by Dillon.

  With the goal-line work going to Dillon, Jones currently dealing with a hamstring injury, a likely increasing workload as the season progresses (as we have seen each year with Dillon), and coming off a down Week 1 (which will limit his trade price), Dillon should be a relatively affordable RB3 to acquire and should be a high-priority target, especially for those that lost J.K. Dobbins last week.

Coming into the 2023 season, Travis Etienne’s price in drafts just seemed way too high. The volume was there for him in 2022, but the production was not – and even when he had the lead role locked up, he failed to be a factor in the passing game, logging more than 3 receptions in a week just three times last year. However, that all changed on Sunday out of left field…

Etienne logged a 68.6% route participation in Week 1 against the Colts, which ranked as the third-highest among all NFL RBs and was the highest route participation he’s seen in his entire career. With that added work, Etienne reeled in all five of his targets on the afternoon, making him a real threat in PPR formats.

What’s most confounding about this sudden spike in work in the receiving game is that the Jaguars waited until AFTER Calvin Ridley joined the offense to start getting Etienne involved in passing situations. It’s a one game sample size, but this usage is unlike any we’ve seen so far for Etienne in his career – and if it continues, he could potentially live up to his high ADP coming into the year.