Anybody else catching themselves taking random shots on players late in drafts just because of preseason performances? 🥴

What’s in store:

• Is a 3-down role in the cards for Zeke in New England? Probably not… but Bill O’Brien just said something different!

• Mid-Round wide receiver draft cheat sheet. Don’t get tripped up by false bargains - Faraz assesses pass catchers going back to back to back in his rankings!

• Two high-upside receivers for drafters chasing it all! See a few of Zach’s upside shots heading into 2023.

• Is Kenneth Walker worth a pick even at a slightly deflated ADP? Find out if you should be worried about Zach Charbonnet.

• Colts Rookie WR Josh Downs starts in the slot over teammate Isaiah McKenzie

  • Colts beat reporter Nate Atkins also said that Indy could rely on Josh Downs’ skillset on underneath and short routes to help acclimate Anthony Richardson to the NFL climate. McKenzie, who was a relatively cheap free agent acquisition coming off a solid year in Buffalo, took the first snaps in the Colts preseason opener, but the script was flipped in this weekend’s action with Josh Downs getting the start. He’s received rave reviews so far in camp and should be able to challenge for significant snaps as the Colts starting slot receiver in the regular season. His ultimate ceiling, of course, will depend on Anthony Richardson’s development in year 1.

• Patriots OC Bill O’Brien says that newly acquired RB Ezekiel Elliott is capable of contributing on all three downs

  • It’s obviously unlikely that we see Zeke become anything close to a third-down back in the Patriots offense, but before last season when Tony Pollard emerged, Zeke had gone four straight seasons with 65+ targets dating back to 2018. It seems like New England has plans to work Elliott into the playcalling for 2023, but it’s hard to imagine a situation where the Patriots deliberately take Rhamondre Stevenson off the field in favor of Zeke outside of some red zone and goal line trips. Elliott’s presence certainly doesn’t help Rhamondre, but Zeke won’t be able to claim a fantasy-relevant role to the point where it bears consideration whether or not to start him on a weekly basis – even as a flex option.

• Mike Evans - WR34, 66.3 (6th Round)

  • Is this the year Evans is held back from his perpetual 1000+ yard season? It might be, especially if Chris Godwin leads in target share once again. It's hard to imagine Baker Mayfield allowing a perimeter WR to be very fantasy relevant, because we haven't really seen it before.

  • Evans is still very talented, but if Tom Brady was struggling to get Evans to be consistent for fantasy, I don't see a scenario where anything gets better for him this year in his age-30 season. He had the lowest 3rd lowest target share of any 100+ target WR last year, and the 5th lowest targets/route run. He had the 4th lowest 1st read share of any of those WRs too... I'm fading Evans this year.

  • Verdict: AVOID

• Rashod Bateman - WR48, 98.2 (9th Round)

  • Bateman will likely start the year a little slow due to his off-season Lisfranc surgery, but he could be his full self in the October time frame. When that happens, don't be surprised if he takes the league by storm.

  • I've been a Bateman truther, and while I don't have him ranked too high right now, it's mainly because of the potential slow start and to guard myself against any potential setbacks before he's back at 100%. If I miss out on Ravens receivers and Bateman is off to a relatively slow start, I might buy him low after a few weeks into the season.

  • Take a look at his Reception Perception profile - the dude is an alpha WR just waiting for opportunity. On a way more balanced offense, if he's the alpha I think he is, Bateman can be a league winner. All eyes are on Zay Flowers, rightfully so, and he is who I am drafting first because I'm a fan of his too (he's healthy), but I would not be surprised if he takes a backseat to Bateman once he's at 100%.

  • Last year, Bateman ranked 12th in yards/route run among 120 WRs before he got hurt. He was banged up during his first several weeks of the season too, but in the first three weeks when he was completely healthy, he ranked third in YPRR (3.55) only behind Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs - ridiculously small sample size, but just trying to paint a picture of how good he can be.

  • Whoever the #1 WR on this offense is - whether it's him or Zay, can be a league winner.

  • Verdict: TARGET

• Courtland Sutton - WR45, 92.4 (8th Round)

  • Sutton has consistently been quarterback Russell Wilson's top target in training camp. He is fully healthy and has demonstrated more explosiveness than in any training camp since 2020, when he was dominant in practices leading up to his ACL injury.

  • "We kind of favor bigger receivers, so he fits that prototype, or that type that we like," Payton said. "It would be too early to make that comparison (to Thomas), but they are 'Xs' that are good-sized players. When you look at their stature, I would agree." Sutton and Jeudy have nearly identical target numbers when they were both on the field together last season.

  • Verdict: SLEEPER

Jaylen Waddle 🐬 - WR11, 2nd Round

• I’ve never seen a game log from a top-10 fantasy receiver quite like what Jaylen Waddle posted in 2022. He had five weekly top-10 finishes where he averaged 27.1 PPR points per game, which is absolutely ridiculous, but he also had five games where he posted point totals in the single digits (he averaged 5.3 PPR points per game in those). He finished as a weekly WR2 just twice last year.

• So what does that mean? It means Waddle is either winning you your week or losing it. There’s very little in between on a weekly basis for Waddle, especially running opposite Tyreek Hill in the Dolphins offense. The good news is that Tua is healthy, and that's especially encouraging considering that Waddle’s five best games all came with him under center. He was a top-10 receiver in five games out of 12 where Tua was healthy, and he was top-7 in four. That kind of upside can’t be ignored, especially considering the nature of the Dolphins offense which is, simply put, speed.

• Tua was second in ADOT last year, so he’s going to continue to throw it deep as he should. I don’t particularly like his price on Underdog right now – that volatility isn’t something I want to take on with my second pick of the draft. But I completely understand shooting for the week-winning upside that Waddle undeniably has.

Jordan Addison 🟣 - WR37, 6-7 Turn

• It’s obviously going to be interesting to see if Addison can compete for targets in the same offense as the best fantasy receiver in the league right now and a Top-5 fantasy tight end, but I think it’s definitely possible. He should step right into the spot vacated by Adam Thielen, which featured plenty of touchdowns over the years while Thielen operated in that role.

• Cousins is a consistent fantasy quarterback and distributes the ball well, and throws at a high volume in Kevin O’Connell’s system (643 pass attempts ranked fourth in the NFL). Addison is more talented than Thielen was, and he should have no trouble upping the ceiling that exists for the Vikings WR2 role. He might not be a WR1 alongside Justin Jefferson because of T.J. Hockenson’s presence in the offense, but he can be a WR2 very easily – potentially top-20.

• He’s being drafted as a high WR4 right now, and that’s inexpensive relative to the upside that he can have. We’re all about targeting good players in good offenses, and I’m confident about Addison’s upside being higher than guys going ahead of him, including Mike Evans, Michael Pittman, and even Marquise Brown.

After finishing his collegiate career at Michigan State with an incredible 1,700+ yard, 19 TD season that saw him finish 6th in Heisman voting in 2021, Kenneth Walker was selected 41st overall by the Seattle Seahawks.

While it took a few weeks for him to truly establish a role in the Seahawks’ offense, once he did in Week 5, he took off, posting 12+ points in 11 of his final 12 games – the only one of which he failed to do that in, he was injured early in (only recording 3 carries). From Week 5 onward, Walker was the RB11 in PPR scoring, ending the season with over 1,200 total yards and 9 TDs in a near-Offensive Rookie of the Year season.

Unfortunately, there’s very little certainty for Walker heading into 2023 with the Seahawks drafting two RBs in the 2023 NFL Draft, selecting Zach Charbonnet in the 2nd round and Kenny McIntosh in the 7th round.

Walker was never a receiving back, thus making McIntosh’s acquisition relatively insignificant, but the addition of Zach Charbonnet, especially given his profile as a power RB that can carry a heavy workload and the significant draft capital invested in him, there’s no clarity on the pecking order or workload split in Seattle.

There’s always the possibility that Charbonnet doesn’t see significant work, seeing as the Seahawks drafted Rashaad Penny in the 1st round in 2018 and gave him only 24% of the backfield carries as a rookie, but the odds are against that happening again.

I really like the player and the playing style of Walker, but the extreme lack of security (and absence of receiving work) leaves me very skeptical of his 2023 prospects. At his price as a mid-RB2 (RB16 on ECR, RB17 on ADP) in the 3rd/early-4th round, I am likely targeting other options as my RB2 with more security and just as much potential.

No player on the Cardinals offense is likely to thrive in fantasy football this season through quality of opportunity over quantity, but enough quantity should allow a select few players to be fantasy relevant in 2023 despite poor overall production. There are the obvious candidates to be volume-based values in drafts (Marquise Brown, James Conner), but rookie WR Michael Wilson has seemingly played his way into that same consideration heading into 2023.

Wilson’s usage so far in the preseason has been indicative of a player that has earned a starting role in the Cardinals offense. He’s played in 22 of 24 total snaps with the starters across the first two games of the preseason, starting over Rondale Moore. He seems to be filling the role left vacant by DeAndre Hopkins’ departure and could stand to see significant target volume on an offense that figures to be playing from behind for a good portion of the year.

What makes Wilson especially intriguing is his draft price: currently coming off the board on Underdog as the WR86 in the 16th round, he has a chance to be a flex candidate via his projected volume alone. His value could be bolstered by the return of Kyler Murray at any point in the season, as well, making him a very strong, appreciable asset coming off the board quite late in drafts.