Justin Fields is Set to Start in Week 11! 🐻

So ready for a real Thursday night football game. Sucks that I don’t have Amazon Prime 😤

What’s in store:

• Justin Fields is set to take the field for the first time since Week 6! 🐻 You can now return D.J. Moore to his rightful place in your starting lineup.

• BUY these two running backs ahead of the trade deadline! Jerome Ford and Breece Hall have some of the more favorable schedules the rest of the way.

• Deshaun Watson lands on IR. Dorian Thompson Robinson is the starter… for now.

• Diontae Johnson syndrome is real. See who’s been allergic to the end zone through ten games in Jacksonville.

• Bears QB Justin Fields set to make his return from thumb injury in Week 11 vs Lions

  • After an extended 4-week absence, Fields is expected to suit up for the Bears’ divisional showdown in Detroit against the red-hot Lions. The last time we saw Fields, he was coming off of two straight Top-3 finishes at the quarterback position in back-to-back games against Denver and Washington while propelling WR D.J. Moore to fantasy stardom. The Bears have struggled on offense, to say the least, with their third-year signal caller sidelined – and while Tyson Bagent played admirably for an undrafted rookie, the Bears offense lacked the dynamism that Fields will provide moving forward. D.J. Moore and company will get a significant upgrade with Fields back under center in Chicago, and fantasy managers can expect a rock-solid floor from him on a weekly basis with a ceiling as high as it’s been in his short career so far. He draws a tough matchup against Detroit in Week 11, but has a much better matchup on tap in Week 12 before Chicago’s Week 13 bye.

• Browns rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson set to make second start of the year with Deshaun Watson out for season

  • The Deshaun Watson injury saga comes to an ungraceful end for the 2023 season, with the $230 million quarterback headed to injured reserve to have season-ending shoulder surgery. For what it’s worth – and we mentioned this in this newsletter not long ago as one of our stats of the day – Watson was a perfectly serviceable fantasy quarterback despite the negative connotation surrounding his play. The Browns have since announced that they’re turning to rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson in relief of Watson over P.J. Walker, which isn’t fantastic news for Browns pass catchers moving forward. Amari Cooper will likely hang around as a high-WR3 , but names like Elijah Moore and David Njoku are likely to fall by the wayside thanks to the general downgrade in quarterback play. With a backup under center, RBs Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are likely to shoulder even more of an already large load, which is a welcome development for them in fantasy land.

• Chargers WR Keenan Allen misses practice Wednesday with shoulder injury

  • It’s the same shoulder injury that he picked up during his monster game against the Lions last week. With the adrenaline no longer kicking, it’s not surprising to see that Allen was held out of practice yesterday. It’s still pretty early in the week, so while it’s definitely concerning to see one of the premier fantasy wide receivers in the game not participating in practice, we’ll reserve any panic about Allen’s status for later in the week. If Allen continues to miss practices heading into Sunday’s matchup against the Packers, though, fantasy managers should be prepared with backup options to stand in for Allen while he’s out. It doesn’t seem like the injury is likely to be one that holds him out for multiple games, and Brandon Staley has said that the Chargers are hopeful he’ll be ready to go. If he would miss, WRs Quentin Johnston and Jalen Guyton would be in line for expanded roles in the dynamic Chargers passing offense.

BUY RB Jerome Ford, CLE

• Jerome Ford is a RB who I think is a little undervalued right now based on the role that he has. Obviously with the Deshaun Watson news he could be easier to buy, but I’m not overly worried about Watson not being behind center the rest of the way when it comes to Ford. Cleveland’s got a good defense that will allow this running game to rack up volume - their team identify is the run game anyway, and in the weeks without Watson, we’ve had several top 15 fantasy finishes out of this backfield.

• Now, Ford hasn’t scored a TD since Week 7 and he’s been banged up… but the last 2 games, he’s taken the clear lead in snaps. He jumped from 44% and 31% snap share in Weeks 7 and 9 to 63% and 66% the last two weeks, and he’s averaging 22.5 opportunities over the last two. His route participation has also jumped to above 60% - targets will follow, and he had a 25% target share in Week 9. He’s the clear 2 minute and long down and distance back, but Kareem Hunt has been the clear goal line back for them lately.

• Can that change? Maybe. But I’d move forward assuming he will not get that role - but you can rest easy knowing that those TDs will come based on the amount of overall opportunity he’s getting. They just might not be on the goal line.

• I’m not sure the Browns will be game scripted out of many games moving forward, either… look at the schedule the next few weeks for them: Pittsburgh and Denver the next two weeks, then the Rams, then Jacksonville, Chicago, Houston, Jets - the game script will be there, and the volume will be there as a result. Things are lining up for Ford to have a great rest of season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a Top-15 back moving forward with a chance to crack the Top-12 RB if he does end up getting some of that goal line work.

BUY RB Breece Hall, NYJ

• I think Michael Carter being released actually makes a significant positive impact for Breece Hall. Michael Carter was getting 72% of the long down and distance snaps, and 71% of the 2 minute snaps of the season - and now all of that work is going to Breece. Dalvin Cook has had 5% of the long down and distance snaps and 0% of the 2 minute snaps this year - you can be sure that that vacated work isn’t going to him.

• Breece Hall’s floor and ceiling just got a lot higher for a team who will have to heavily depend on him - he’s had two down games, but he saw a season high in snap share in Week 10, and we’re about to see season highs in route participation this upcoming week.

• The Jets also have neutral matchups all the way through the end of the year - except for Cleveland in Week 17. That’s in the championship week, which isn’t ideal, but the Browns have been a little susceptible to big plays, allowing the 2nd highest rate of 20+ yard rushing plays, and the 5th highest rate of 20+ yard receiving plays to RBs. That’s Breece’s game right there… as long as he’s healthy, I don’t see a world where he finishes outside the Top-12 the rest of the way between the schedule and the way the offense is going to be running.

SELL QB Josh Dobbs, MIN

• If you need help at RB or WR and you’re holding Josh Dobbs along with another quality starting QB like Joe Burrow or Jalen Hurts because you needed someone during his bye week, use this opportunity to move him after the three monster games he just had. Get a RB or WR back from the team that badly needs a QB.

• I don’t want to sell my team short on upside by putting the cart before the horse when it comes to QB injuries - I want to play to win, and I want to bolster my starting lineup as much as possible going into this stretch. Even if I have someone like Kyler Murray who just came back, I am fine moving Dobbs if I can get a high-end RB2 or high-end WR2 - some teams are just desperate to solve their QB situation and you can do a 1 for 1 with Dobbs right now. Or you can add a WR with Dobbs to get a higher-end WR, and similarly with a RB if that’s what you need.

• Otherwise, I’m perfectly fine starting Dobbs as a QB1 rest of season… but just wanted to point out the fact that a lot of people might have 2 very startable QBs on their roster, and one of them should be moved so that they can improve the rest of their starting lineup.

Jaguars TE Evan Engram has been one of the most consistent fantasy options at the position through ten weeks of the 2023 season despite glaring issues in Jacksonville’s passing attack. The seventh-year pro has racked up at least seven targets in every game since Week 2 and ranks among the league’s best in target share among tight ends, but is lacking in one critical department that has hamstrung his production from reaching the high-TE1 stratosphere.

Unfortunately for Engram, he’s suffering from an acute case of Diontae Johnson syndrome. That is, he’s earned the third-most total targets and the fourth-highest target share among all NFL tight ends so far this season, but he has zero touchdowns to show for it. He’s the only tight end inside the top-12 in target share without a score in 2023, but that might not be entirely his fault…

The biggest story for the Jaguars this season has been the struggles of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has fallen significantly short of the lofty expectations set ahead of his third campaign. His 9:6 touchdown to interception ratio has left Jaguars pass catchers with little upside to chase in the offense, and Engram has been feeling the effects of the lowered QB play - he has zero end zone targets this year after having five through ten weeks in 2022. With matchups against some of the NFL’s best overall defenses coming up after Week 12 – including games agains the Bengals, Browns, and Ravens – time is running out for Engram to start capitalizing on the volume he’s received.