Justin Fields ➡️ Steelers?

Happy Friday, everyone. We’re heading into the first weekend of the offseason, and it already feels like it’s been too long without football. Hopefully these newsletter will help carry you through!

What’s in store:

• Could Brandon Aiyuk be out of San Fran in 2024? Yes, we know - it’s February. But it’s not like we haven’t been clamoring for him to have a role as a true WR1.

• Mike Tomlin + Justin Fields. Who says no? Could be the Bears, honestly. But it’s an intriguing potential combo in Pittsburgh that’s been making waves this week.

• ICYMI: Faraz’s Senior Bowl standout receivers. HIs list includes the son of arguably the greatest WR of all time 👀.

• Who were the most and least efficient running backs in 2023? The leaders and losers might surprise you.

• 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk and his camp stir the pot by suggesting a departure from San Francisco this offseason could be in the cards

  • Could all of this just be smoke following a deflating loss in the Super Bowl in all-time dramatic fashion? It very well may be. But when rumors are thrown around of one of the league’s most productive receivers potentially being on the move, we can’t just glance over it. Aiyuk was one of the most efficient pass catchers in the NFL this season on a per-reception basis, finishing second in the NFL in yards per reception behind George Pickens and finishing as the only WR with over 1300 receiving yards on fewer than 100 targets. The problem for Aiyuk in San Francisco has been opportunity throughout his career, competing with the likes of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, and eventually Christian McCaffrey for targets week in and week out. Aiyuk remains under contract with the 49ers through 2024, but if San Fran would be unable to come to terms with Aiyuk on whatever drama has unfolded these past few days, he would be one of the most sought-after weapons in the league this offseason, both in real life and in fantasy football.

• Steelers HC Mike Tomlin reportedly a ‘big fan’ of Bears QB Justin Fields, per Adam Schefter

  • At this point, anything is an upgrade over the Steelers’ current QB situation – but it’s not just the fact that Joe Flacco would be an acceptable alternative to Kenny Pickett. Fields flashed some of the playmaking ability over the course of the second half of the year that he just hasn’t been able to harness since being drafted in 2021, and for an offense like Pittsburgh’s that’s just missing the catalyst at signal caller, Fields could be a perfect fit. With a two-headed monster in the backfield (Najee and Warren), plus Diontae, Pickens, and Freiermuth in the passing game, Fields could have his best combination of weapons and coaching that he’s seen in his career should he land in Pittsburgh. The offseason has yet to even officially start, but the fact that Tomlin has yes for Fields suggests that the Steelers could make themselves a home for Fields’ second chance in the NFL. Sometimes a change of scenery is all a player needs – just look at Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. 🤷‍♂️

• Seahawks QB Geno Smith set to remain in Seattle for 2024 season amid head coaching, offensive coordinator changes

  • Smith was never in real danger of hitting the curb in Seattle, but the head coaching change from Pete Carroll to Mike Macdonald has ushered in a new era of football for the Seahawks. Seattle lost their offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron a few weeks ago to the Bears in the inital wave of this year’s hiring cycle, leaving the future uncertain for what the Seahawks offense could look like in 2024. To replace Waldron, Seattle brought in the pass-heavy Ryan Grubb who coached Heisman trophy finalist Michael Penix and the Washington Huskies for the past two years. With the same weapons at their disposal as last season in D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, JSN, Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, Smith will have a chance to return to his 2022 form that saw him throw for 30 touchdowns and finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback.

I think both Roman Wilson and Ricky Pearsall can be very solid slot WRs at the next level - they both showed good footwork, but were smooth in their route running, and it was hard for DBs to keep up with them - both showed some nice speed, too. Roman Wilson was just a tad bit better than Pearsall for me during the week, made the most of his reps - and you look at the numbers from last season - ranked 28th of 148 qualifying Power 5 WRs in yards/reception, 17th of 148 in yards/route run, and he was PFF’s 14th highest graded WR among those 148 WRs. Pretty good season. Ran out of the slot over the last two years, and did his thing against some good corners in the senior bowl, particularly one rep against Quinyon Mitchell in front of the entire squad at the end of practice.

Ricky Pearsall was right there, too… the speed was there, the route running was there, and he had some of my favorite reps of any WR during the week. He was being targeted during 11 on 11s, which is big - both of these guys were - 9th most yards/route run out of the slot last year - qualified at 50+ targets in the slot, 6th highest catch percentage among those slot WRs. Both of these guys will likely hear their name called between Round 2 and 3.

While you’re reading, make sure to stay tuned for the Upper Hand Fantasy Dynasty Kit that will be available in 14 days! The offseason is officially here for all 32 teams, but it’s never too early to get ahead and pick up an edge on your opponents for the 2024 season!

Brenden Rice has some upside - he’s big, he has some speed, he uses that physicality, and he has some underrated route running as well. And for a big man, he can move pretty nicely in and out of his cuts. He showed versatility, so I’m definitely intrigued in his game. I will say, one of the coolest moments for me during the week was being able to talk to his dad, Jerry Rice – I watched them chop it up together after practice, and then watched Jerry chop it up with Terrell Owens… literally just a few steps away from these guys on the field - really cool stuff. Anyway, the physicality for Rice was there - on Day 1 there were two straight reps of him getting held - multiple flags thrown by the refs on his way into the end zone, and he caught a TD both times despite the physicality. He fought through it, wasn’t satisified with just the flag, but still did his thing - that says a lot about him in my opinion.

He also showed his route running ability too without getting physical - the fact that he was able to show multiple assets of his game was very smart on his part and he actually executed on it. Release, separation - he showed it. He did have a couple of drops here and there, but it didn’t really overshadow the great moments he had. When you look at the numbers last year, there were 139 Power 5 WRs who had 50+ targets, he ranked 14th among those WRS in yards/route run - 14th among them in yards/reception, too. I can see jumping up to Round 2 potentially after what he showed this week, and the pedigree he has.

If 2023 felt like an odd year for the fantasy football running back, you're definitely onto something. Austin Ekeler was a non factor for most of the year, Devin Singletary was a quality starting option, and Raheem Mostert scored 21 touchdowns. All surprising developments – but perhaps the most surprising stats to come out of this past season were in the department of efficiency metrics.

Your most efficient running back on a per-carry basis in terms of creating after first contact? That would be none other than 28-year old James Conner, who led all running backs with 200+ carries in 2023 in yards after contact per attempt (3.93) and missed tackles forced per attempt (0.29). Those numbers are above all your favorite playmaking ball carriers, including Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne, and Breece Hall.

James Conner’s 2023 was a story of triumph, but Josh Jacobs? Not so much. He was on the complete opposite end of the spectrum, ranking dead last in those same efficiency metrics: yards after contact per attempt (2.35) and missed tackles forced per attempt (0.12). After finishing as the overall RB3 in fantasy points and fantasy points per game in 2022, Jacobs took a huge step back in a contract year in 2023 – and now looks primed to test out the market in free agency ahead of 2024.