Kamara Likely to Face Suspension in 2023 😬

We made it. There’s 2023 NFL football to watch tonight. :D

What’s in store:

• Kamara will likely face a suspension to start 2023 😬 Nobody knows how long just yet.

• So many headlines, so few conclusions! 😵‍💫 Faraz breaks down everything we’ve seen so far at training camp.

• Tiered fantasy rankings are here for WRs! Zach brings in his top four pass catcher tiers for 2023.

• Jets vs Browns: Which names should we be paying attention to?Tyler has you covered with the important names to watch tonight.

• RB Alvin Kamara expected to be suspended by the NFL for incident in Las Vegas

  • While there’s no guarantee yet on whether there truly will be a suspension for Kamara, or for how long, the tea leaves suggest that the Saints RB will face punishment in the form of missing games. Earlier reports indicated that Kamara hoped to meet with Commissioner Roger Goodell in hopes of lowering any potential suspension for 2023, but that meeting has yet to take place as of the writing of this newsletter. Any time missed by the star running back, however, will open the door for Jamaal Williams and rookie RB Kendre Miller to take on significant work in the Saints offense – the latter of which could carve out a significant role for himself in 2023.

• Cooper Kupp, Calvin Ridley dealing with hamstring, toe injuries, respectively

  • Kupp, who has a hamstring injury, is expected to miss more time than Ridley, who is dealing with a toe issue. The expectation is that Kupp does not see any action during the preseason in hopes of being ready for the Rams season-opener. The Rams are likely being extra cautious with their top receiver, but the situation should be monitored as the regular season draws near. As a result, Faraz has moved Kupp down the rankings, and is now more comfortable taking Tyreek, Kelce, and Diggs over him. Meanwhile in Jacksonville, Calvin Ridley was not held out of practice, but rather was simply limited on Wednesday. Assuming he suffers no setbacks, we can anticipate Ridley easily being back to 100% health by the time Week 1 rolls around.

• Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers solidifying themselves as best WRs at Ravens camp so far

  • With WR Rashod Bateman still making his return from his Lisfranc injury suffered last season, it makes sense that the Ravens first-round pick and largest offensive free agent signing this season are making noise in camp. Ravens beats have been especially impressed by Zay Flowers, who seems to be making the most of the golden opportunity to build chemistry with Lamar Jackson ahead of 2023. With Bateman likely to be limited for a few weeks whenever he takes the field this season and Beckham turning 31 in November, Flowers seems like the Ravens’ most dynamic pass catcher this year. And in a revamped passing game spearheaded by the addition of OC Todd Monken, Flowers could easily finish as the No. 2 target earner behind Mark Andrews in his rookie year.

• Darren Waller is the clear #1 target in the Giants offense, has been impossible to defend, and it’s been extremely evident during the first week that he’s Daniel Jones’ favorite target.

• Training wheels are off for Dalton Kincaid. Bills’ beat reporter Joe Buscaglia reports that Kincaid has been consistently targeted by Allen every practice, and they are involving him a ton in the Allen-led offense through the first few practices. It’s been a little bit of the opposite for Gabe Davis.

• James Cook has been consistently the first RB with Allen and the first-team offense. Their GM called him a three-down back, and there has been no question that he’s their RB1. Damien Harris is the clear RB2 behind Cook.

• There is serious rapport built between Justin Fields and DJ Moore. Bears beat reporter for The Athletic Adam Jahns says “their connection is by far the best thing going early in camp after it started in OTAs.”

• There is no competition for TE Jake Ferguson in Dallas. Luke Schoonmaker could still be a few weeks out, and missing camp time as a rookie TE does not help him. His ADP never made sense to me, but it looks like he’s the last fantasy relevant TE option you can draft.

• Using two tight ends is definitely something the Patriots will be doing, but it’s actually been Hunter Henry, and not Mike Gesicki, as Mac Jones’ favorite target through the first few camp practices. “Slower start to camp for Mike Gesicki,” says Evan Lazar of Patriots.com.

• A lot of positive vibes around Elijah Moore - he’s being used a ton. The base offense seems to have 3 WRs on the field, and looks to have Moore in the slot, while Amari Cooper and DPJ man the outside. Cooper is back in practice after a minor early camp injury.

Tier 1: Can’t Go Wrong Drafting Them

• Justin Jefferson - Not much to be said here. A player of Jefferson’s caliber won’t be affected by the addition of Jordan Addison. As long as Kirk Cousins is under center, Jefferson is the undisputed fantasy WR1.

• Ja’Marr Chase - Don’t let an injury last year cloud your judgement of Chase this season. Despite missing four games, he still managed to finish as a WR1 in 2022, and as the WR6 in PPR pts/game. Nothing has changed for Chase, and there’s nothing to worry about at this point with Burrow’s health.

• Tyreek Hill - He says he’s chasing 2,000 yards in 2023, and given his speed, Hill might literally and figuratively catch up to it. Waddle is a great complement to Hill, but Tyreek won’t ever be overtaken in this offense. Tua’s health is paramount, but I can’t rank Hill lower because I’m scared of him getting hurt.

• Stefon Diggs - Diggs has amassed over 150 targets and 100 receptions in all three of his years in Buffalo, and that's the expectation heading into 2023. Even with Dalton Kincaid and James Cook figuring to see substantial roles, there’s no substitute in the Bills offense for Josh Allen’s favorite target.

Tier 2: Elite Talent, Elite Target-Earning Abillity

• Cooper Kupp - After missing the majority of the year last year and dealing with a minor injury this year, I’m expecting to see Kupp return to form – but not before he knocks off some rust. The same goes for his QB, Matthew Stafford, who really wasn’t playing well at all in 2022 before he went down, either. Those two factors make him just slightly riskier than the pass catchers in the top tier.

• Ceedee Lamb - Lamb entered the upper echelon of fantasy production last season, finishing as 1 of 7 WRs with over 100 receptions on the year. He produced even despite Dak Prescott missing five games, and he was the overall WR3 from Week 7 on after Dak returned to action.

• A.J. Brown - Two wide receivers finished 2022 with 17+ yards per reception on 75 or more receptions: Jaylen Waddle and A.J. Brown. He was also hyper productive after the catch, ranking 3rd in YAC/reception. Brown finally received WR1 usage in his first year in Philly, and he’s a threat to finish as the overall WR1 every week.

• Garrett Wilson - The most speculative of any WR in this tier, but he belongs here by virtue of his performance last year and the tremendous QB upgrade he’ll enjoy this season. Wilson is the clear No. 1 and hit all the metrics we like to see for rookie receivers.

Tier 3: Elite Talent, but with some questions

• Amon-Ra St. Brown - Would be a tier higher if not for a very low aDOT (4th-lowest of 75 qualifying receivers). St. Brown is an incredibly high-security investment, though, averaging just under nine targets a game last year – including a two-game stretch where he managed just 7 targets total while dealing with injury.

• Calvin Ridley - This year’s darling of training camp belongs no lower than the third tier of fantasy receivers. With an ascending Trevor Lawrence at QB, a history of production in crowded offenses, and film that quells worries about him having to knock off rust after being away from the game, it’s wheels up for Ridley as a potential Top-8 fantasy WR in his return to the NFL.

• Davante Adams - We had this same debate last year when Adams went from Rodgers to Carr at QB, but he proved that he can produce independent of whoever is passing the ball. Jimmy G is probably the least dynamic QB he’s played with to date, which raises concerns just a bit about his ability to reach his true ceiling and compete for a Top-5 finish.

• Chris Olave - Derek Carr is an upgrade over the QB play he’s had so far in his short career, but there’s plenty of question marks surrounding this Saints offense, especially in the receiving game. Olave will hold his own, regardless, but a re-emergence from Michael Thomas or heavy RB involvement in the passing game could limit Olave’s ceiling.

• Keenan Allen - Not many analysts have Keenan Allen this high in their rankings, but he’s Justin Herbert’s clear favorite target whenever he’s on the field. He’s had 10+ targets in 59% of his games since Herbert joined the team in 2020, and at least 8 targets in 76% of his starts. If not for the injury last season, Allen would have finished among the league’s best in total production in 2022. He has plenty of target competition in LA, though, especially with the Chargers using a first round pick on TCU standout Quentin Johnston.

Tier 4: Could Sneak in as Low WR1s

• Jaylen Waddle - Waddle is an excellent receiver with elite deep-threat ability, but he massively overproduced on his volume last year. He’s still on a good offense, but that efficiency could come back down to Earth - he was the only receiver with less than 120 targets to finish inside the Top-12 in PPR points scored.

• Devonta Smith - Nothing against Smith as a player, but competing with A.J. Brown on a weekly basis for looks in a bottom-third offense by passing volume will ultimately limit your production at the end of the day. A.J. Brown saw the 4th-most red zone targets among all WRs, while Smith ranked just 29th.

• Amari Cooper - Cooper was able to finish as the overall WR10 despite dealing with backup QB play all year. He should remain the unquestioned No. 1 target in the Browns offense for 2023, and with Deshaun Watson taking a step forward compared to last year, Cooper can be uber productive at an affordable price point in drafts right now. He scored the most touchdowns in a season of any year in his career with the Browns, as well.

August 3rd (Hall of Fame Game)

Cedric Tillman (WR - Cleveland Browns) - vs NYJ, 8:00 PM on NBC

• It'll be our first look at rookie WR Cedric Tillman in an NFL uniform tonight. Selected in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft (73rd overall), Tillman is coming off a down (and injury-riddled) 2022 collegiate season that saw him feature in just 6 games after an excellent Junior season in 2021 with over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs.

• Tillman will likely be running with the 2's (and possibly get some time with the 3's) in the preseason opener, currently slotted in as a backup WR behind Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones on the outside (with Elijah Moore in the slot).

• What we'll really see is where within the pecking order of the 2's he is, relative to the likes of Anthony Schwartz, Marquise Goodwin, and Jakeem Grant in a rather deep Browns' receiving corps. Less action, especially in comparison to those WRs, means more for his likely involvement in 2023.

Israel Abanikanda (RB - New York Jets) - vs CLE, 8:00 PM on NBC

• Abanikanda is another rookie likely making his preseason debut tonight, drafted in the 5th round (143rd overall) in the 2023 Draft out of Pitt after a very strong senior campaign with just shy of 1,600 total yards and 21 TDs.

• Currently competing for the RB3 spot behind Breece Hall and Michael Carter with Zonovan Knight, there's a lot of uncertainty with the Jets' backfield and what opportunities may be presented in 2023. With Hall on the PUP List from his ACL tear (and the potential to miss the beginning of the season due to such) and Dalvin Cook leaving his visit with the Jets without a contract (even with the potential to still sign), it leaves a crowded competition to unfold in New York for the time being.

• I'm excited to see how involved he is tonight. Similar to Tillman, less will likely mean more for Abanikanda as a limited workload in the HOF game, especially relative to his spot on the depth chart, could imply the Jets are more likely to stand pat with their current RB situation and potentially offer a role to Abanikanda as a rookie.

Demetric Felton (RB - Cleveland Browns) - vs NYJ, 8:00 PM on NBC

• The Browns' backfield is a major question mark beyond the obvious in Nick Chubb, now seeing the opening of the potential handcuff/RB2 role with the departure of Kareem Hunt this offseason.

• Jerome Ford is currently slotted in as the unofficial RB2 in the backfield to open the preseason, but I am more intrigued by Felton's prospects, even if he enters the season as the "RB3" on the depth chart. The reasoning: his receiving abilities.

• As an RB/WR hybrid type of player, Felton has the opportunity to carve out a notable role this season in the receiving game with the departure of Hunt and Nick Chubb's relative inability to produce as a receiver.

• I'm looking forward to seeing how much time Ford & Felton get tonight (as well as whether it is a definitive 1-2 or a 1A-1B situation) as well as seeing if/how involved Felton is schemed into the receiving game.

Giants QB Daniel Jones was able to finish as the overall QB9 last year, much to the surprise of the fantasy community after failing to finish as a top-20 QB in each of the three years before 2022. However, that finish was buoyed heavily by Jones’ rushing ability, with the fourth-year QB putting up over 700 yards rushing and 7 touchdowns on the ground.

It was a different story through the air, though, just as it’s been throughout his career. It was another year, another failure to support a Top-36 fantasy WR by Jones, who has yet to do so since entering the leagues since 2019. That might have more to do with the quality of the WRs he’s played with, but it remains that Giants receivers simply have not produced at a fantasy relevant level since Jones has been under center.

The Giants did go out and get help for Jones in the passing game this offseason, adding the closest thing to a WR without being a WR in TE Darren Waller via trade. Waller has already been peppered with targets according to numerous training camp reports, and despite not playing at WR, Waller could be in line to be the Giants’ most productive pass catcher in over five years.