Khalil Shakir inks first big deal of the offseason 🖊️

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• Browns GM Andrew Berry said QB Deshaun Watson will miss ‘significant time’ during 2025 season; RB Nick Chubb set to ‘hit the market’

  • Berry touched on multiple topics facing the Browns as they enter the new league year and offseason, starting first with the injury status of QB Deshaun Watson. As you already know, the Browns don’t have a QB on the roster as of today that wouldn’t be laughed at if they were to get the start in Week 1, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that he ‘fully expects’ the Browns to select a QB with the second overall pick in the draft. This makes sense, especially given the fact that the Browns’ $240M man re-ruptured his Achilles a second time after initially tearing it in Week 8 of the regular season. With Watson set to miss a good portion of the 2025 season as he recovers, the Browns will have to start from scratch in the QB room heading into next year. That will likely start with signing a bridge quarterback for the time being in free agency, with many rumors indicating that a potential reunion between head coach Kevin Stefanski and QB Kirk Cousins could be on the horizon. Regardless of which veteran is brought in, all focus will be on the QB Cleveland selects in this year’s draft, with at least one of Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, and Jaxson Dart set to be available by the time they’re on the clock. Meanwhile, Berry also commented on the future of free agent RB Nick Chubb, indicating Tuesday that the veteran RB and lifelong Brown is likely to become a free agent at the start of the new league year. While the door isn’t shut on a potential cheap extension for Chubb, it’s hard to imagine the Browns shelling out anything more than the minimum for a player who’s been oft-injured over the past few seasons.

• QB Matthew Stafford’s future with Rams remains uncertain, granted permission to speak with other teams about potential trade

  • The tea leaves are telling us that Matthew Stafford could legitimately be on the move this offseason assuming that the Rams don’t want to commit long term to their 37-year starter at a high price point. That price point is rumored to be above the $50M a year mark for Stafford’s services, which would place Stafford among the league’s highest-paid passers should he land a deal with that kind of value ahead of 2025. The issue? Durability concerns and other notorious examples of big veteran QB paydays not working out (Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr) likely have both the Rams’ and the guards of other teams around the league raised when it comes to signing Stafford. What Stafford does have going for him, though, is plenty of tape showing he’s as healthy and spry as ever and yes another playoff victory under his belt this past postseason. For the sake of Puka Nacua, fantasy managers around the world should be crossing their fingers that Stafford sticks around – while Nacua would likely be fine on his own, it would be hard to replace the rapport he and Stafford have developed over the past two seasons. Should Stafford be on the move, though, the Giants would be a welcome destination where Malik Nabers would be primed to thrive with a real QB under center for the first time in his NFL career. There are reportedly other teams around the league willing to pay $50M+, as well; the bottom line, though, is that Stafford seems like he’ll have a healthy mark

• Bills sign WR Khalil Shakir to 4-year, $60.2M extension that ties him to the team through the 2029 season

  • Not necessarily the most consequential signing we’re going to see this offseason given that Shakir has yet to establish himself as an every-week fantasy starter, but a notable one in a Bills WR room that’s lacking a true No. 1 wideout. Shakir has functioned in that role as the de facto top receiver in the room and has been moderately productive through his first three years in the league, netting him what is by and large a very affordable long-term deal. With the move, Josh Allen retains his top target earner in the Bills’ passing game from last season – and more importantly, Shakir is now officially tied to Josh Allen as his quarterback for the foreseeable future. Given the relative lack of competition in Buffalo and the fact that he plays out of the slot, Shakir’s role in the Bills’ offense is tightly secured and affords him room to grow even more into an even more reliable, higher-upside fantasy WR on a high-quality offense. It’s likely the best outcome for Shakir, who was an every week start at the FLEX in 2024 and will continue to be barring unforeseen drastic changes in the Bills’ offense. He’ll continue to do battle with the likes of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid at the top of the pecking order in terms of target distribution in 2025.

After a hectic hiring process that saw him reject the Jaguars head coaching job, sign an extension with the Buccaneers, and ultimately flip back again to the Jaguars job, Liam Coen is set to take the Jacksonville offense to new heights in his first season with the team. Here are three reasons why Liam Coen is primed to take your Jaguars players to the next level in 2025.

1. Liam Coen’s offense was on fire everywhere in 2024.

   • Essentially everywhere you looked, the Buccaneers were among the best in the league in offensive efficiency. Whether it was red zone scoring attempts (5th), red zone touchdowns (4th), overall touchdowns (4th), red zone success rate (4th), EPA/play in the red zone (5th) and out of it (4th), overall EPA per play (5th), EPA/play on pass plays (4th), or EPA/play on run plays (6th), you could count on Tampa Bay to be getting it done in those categories. Coen’s playcalling made this offense a juggernaut, and with more high-quality tools in Jacksonville, we can see more of that in 2025.

2. The slot role is a potential fantasy gold mine.

   • Liam Coen took over the Rams OC job after Kevin O’Connell left to Minnesota, and converted Chris Godwin back to the Cooper Kupp role last year on purpose: “That’s where I envision [Godwin] playing, more on the inside, that position that Cooper [Kupp] played.” Godwin was the WR6 through his six healthy weeks.

   • Christian Kirk was the Jags’ primary slot receiver last year before his collarbone (he’s healthy now), so he’s the guy to target outside of Brian Thomas Jr. There will be questions around whether the Jags keep him under contract, as a post-June 1st release can save them $16M. Next up can be Parker Washington, but there’s also a chance of even replacing Kirk with a familiar face in that role - Chris Godwin himself (free agent), or Cooper Kupp (trade block).

   • With that being said… I’m buying Christian Kirk in dynasty today. Christian Kirk’s former coach in Arizona Spencer Whipple was brought in by Coen to be QB coach, so there’s familiarity there that could be the difference between the Jags retaining Kirk and letting him go.

   • Coen did mention that he was impressed with BTJ’s ability in the slot right after his opening press conference, but you have to assume that he’ll keep BTJ on the outside for the most part give his ability to dominate downfield. But I’ll take some of BTJ in the slot - no WR with 40+ slot targets averaged more yards/route run than him out of the slot last year.

3. Trevor Lawrence has an opportunity to be this year’s fantasy QB steal

   • There could be a bigger emphasis on throwing the ball with Coen. The Bucs were 9th in pass rate over expectation last year, and the Jaguars defense will likely continue to keep the Jags outside of positive game scripts. The Bucs were also 5th among all teams in first half pass rate; the second half could be similar given the state of the Jags defense.

   • Outside of rushing QBs, pocket QBs who are in a Shanahan or McVay system are more likely to outperform their ADP than others. Think Darnold, Purdy, Stafford, Tua. Coen took Baker to an even higher level than Dave Canales did, so he might be able to do the same for another former #1 overall pick.

   • Lawrence hasn’t lived up to expectations, but hasn’t been terrible. There’s still intrigue, there’s still promise. He was 13th in adjusted EPA/play last year, so he’s not starting from the bottom. He loved throwing it deep, as well - he was 2nd in deep throw % last year, and was middle of the pack in big time throws %, per PFF.