Kickstarting the Falcons' Offense 🔋

We’re less than a month away from the official start of NFL free agency – and March Madness will be back in mid-March, as well. Look forward to that as your first milestone between now and the 2024 season!

What’s in store:

• Broncos country is done riding with Russell Wilson. 😵‍💫 The general consensus is that Mr. Unlimited will be donning a new uniform in 2024.

• Could Mike Evans wind up leaving Tampa Bay? With both parties not close in negotiations, the possibilities are starting to take shape.

• Can Zac Robinson and Raheem Morris kickstart Atlanta’s offense? If you’re going to be coming from any coaching tree, the Sean McVay tree is a good one to be connected to.

• The return of Mike Evans was a spectacle in 2023. With Evans in the news, we look back at his historic season this past year.

• ‘Vitrually no one around the league’ anticipates QB Russell Wilson remaining with the Broncos for the 2024 season, per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler

  • The Russell Wilson experiment in Denver has yielded results almost as useful as microwaving silverware, so it’s not a surprise that the Broncos are expected to put the former Seahawks QB out to pasture after just two seasons with the team. With the 12th pick in this year’s upcoming draft, head coach Sean Payton isn’t exactly positioned well to get his hands on the cream of this year’s quarterbacking crop – but a deep class of signal callers in 2024 should leave him and the Broncos with at least a quality option or two by the time they’re on the clock. This, of course, assumes Denver doesn’t attempt to trade up to a higher pick, which very well may be on the table, as well. With Wilson likely on the way out and a rookie quarterback potentially taking the reigns for 2024, the whole lot of weapons on the Broncos offense are entering uncharted territory. After underperforming in each of the past two seasons, both Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton could once again be relegated to the later rounds of fantasy drafts as upside fliers and not as high-impact fantasy assets.

• ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler also reports that the Ravens are expected to pursue a big name running back via free agency

  • A Tuesday double-feature of headlines from Fowler, the Ravens appear primed to make a run at a true RB1 this offseason with experience. Baltimore is coming off a season that saw the dynamic J.K. Dobbins go down with a season-ending injury for the second year in a row – which resulted in the Ravens sustaining their ground game on the shoulders of the Melvin Gordons and Justice Hills of the world. Evidently, Baltimore is ready to bring in a difference maker for their ground game to pair with Lamar Jackson out of the backfield, and they’ll have plenty of options this free agency cycle with Derrick Henry closely linked to the Ravens on most betting platforms. Also available is Giants running back Saquon Barkley, who is officially a free agent once again with his one-year incentive-laden contract expiring after all kinds of drama last offseason. While the Ravens aren’t the same run-the-damn-ball offense they were under Greg Roman with new OC Todd Monken at the controls, an upgrade at RB would be very intriguing given the two-headed monster Baltimore would form with Lamar.

• Buccaneers WR Mike Evans and Tampa Bay’s front office remain ‘far apart’ in contract talks, per Jordan Schultz

  • Mike Evans continues to prove that he’s a historically great WR, and it’s not surprising that he’d want to be compensated as such after leading the league in receiving touchdowns during the regular season at 30 years old. That’s hardly ancient when it comes to productive age thresholds in fantasy football, but considering the situation Evans was in coming into 2023 with an unproven Baker Mayfield at QB, his tenth consecutive 1000-yard season becomes all the more impressive. The best case scenario for Evans and his fantasy prospects is certainly to remain in Tampa Bay with Mayfield, but a few outside options offer plenty of intrigue as well with just a few weeks left before free agency begins. If Evans would leave Tampa Bay this offseason, the Bucs would be left notably shorthanded at wide receiver and would almost be a lock to select a pass catcher in this year’s draft – even with Chris Godwin remaining on the roster and Cade Otton coming on late in the year as an option in the receiving game. If the Bucs are unable to sign their franchise guy to a new extension, look for a very active market to open for Evans’ services in 2024.

• Another Sean McVay disciple gets a crack at OC. Will the talent actually get utilized in Atlanta with new OC Zac Robinson?

  One of the biggest changes coming to the offense is 3 WRs on the field in bunch formations, close to the line of scrimmage. Atlanta ran the fewest 3-WR sets across the NFL last year.

• They will be a lot more dependent on their WRs blocking in the run game, but we should also expect a lot more free releases for those receivers – which is going to benefit Drake London in a huge way. A staple route combination for Rams WRs in 2023 was a dig route from the outside receiver combined with either a sail or dagger from the slot. Pay attention to which slot receiver they bring in… unless that’s Kyle Pitts’ role!

• On the outside, it makes sense that Puka’s most common route was the dig, and he was very successful at it. How does this connect to the Falcons offense under Zac Robinson? Well, consider that Drake London happens to also have a high success rate on dig routes. Puka’s three most common routes (dig, slant, curl) are all routes London has a high success rate with.

• As far as the run game goes under Robinson, it’s anyone’s guess as to whether the Falcons will run gap or a zone run scheme. McVay is known for his success with outside/wide zone, but he pivoted to a gap scheme this season with great success, primarily with duo concepts. Kyren Williams was #1 in duo success rate among all RBs in 2023.

• Meanwhile in Atlanta, the Falcons were primarily a zone run scheme last year. Bijan had the highest attempts of outside zone of any RB last season, which resulted in the 2nd most yards when running that concept. He was also zone-heavy at Texas, too, so he as some familiarity there.

• The Falcons are in position to grab a QB in the first round given their draft position (8th overall as things stand today). Picking the right one will be key if they decide to go with a rookie, but a free agent like Kirk Cousins could also be in the works… which wouldn’t be a bad thing at all.

• Regardless, McVay’s offenses have historically revolved tightly around his key guys like Todd Gurley, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua. Let’s hope for a tight distribution between London, Bijan, and Pitts with another coach off the McVay tree landing in Atlanta in Robinson. Plus, new HC Raheem Morris has already shouted out Bijan and London as playmakers (hello Arthur Smith). Is this a step in the right direction for Atlanta?

With Mike Evans’ contract situation in the news, today’s column highlights the absolute monster of a season that the Buccaneers wideout was able to have despite laughably low expectations coming into the 2023 season. With Baker Mayfield at the helm and with Evans coming off one of his least productive fantasy seasons to date in 2022, Evans was written off as a fantasy WR1 by many in the industry – including us. But he had different plans for his 2023.

In a contract year this season with the Bucs, Evans re-established himself as a pass catcher well worthy of fantasy WR1 consideration; his 2.32 yards per route run, 24% target share, and 41% air yards share with Baker Mayfield under center in 2023 meet the fantasy WR1 thresholds Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland so usefully outlines in his utilization report (check that out here).

Those numbers dwarf the ones Evans posted in 2022 with none other than the goat Tom Brady at quarterback: Evans’ 1.81 yards per route run, 20% target share, and 36% air yards share were more indicative of WR3 production than WR1 production, and his price in drafts coming into this past season reflected the concerns for him moving from Brady to Mayfield. While Mike Evans may not be in Tampa Bay in 2024, he’s very nicely cemented himself back into the top-20 fantasy wide receiver conversation regardless of landing spot (unless it’s some place like Carolina – even though his offensive coordinator is now the head coach there).