Lamar Jackson UNDER 6.5 Rush TDs? 😳

The Titans drafted A.J. Brown, drafted his replacement with a pick they received for A.J. Brown, and now signed a receiver to play ahead of the guy they tried to replace A.J. Brown with – all while completely ignoring the fact that the offense goes as Derrick Henry goes!

What’s in store:

• Franchise Tag deadline passes with no RB deals made. 😐 Tony Pollard will play on the tag in 2023, but what about Barkley and Jacobs?

• Answering YOUR fantasy football questions. Faraz responds to two tough questions from followers inside our Instagram community!

• Lock in your next Underdog Pick’Ems entry. 🐶 Zach offers three of his favorite year-long prop picks for the 2023 season.

• To draft, or not to draft? That is the question with Alvin Kamara. Tyler breaks down the possibilities for the Saints RB and where to draft him with legal issues looming.

• 2022 Breakout RB enters prove-it year on franchise tag ⭐️

  • RB Tony Pollard and the Dallas Cowboys could not come to terms on a long-term extension, leaving Pollard to play out the 2023 season on the franchise tag. This was the expected outcome for Pollard, especially coming off of a broken leg he suffered in the Divisional Round against the 49ers. The Cowboys could have incentive to utilize Pollard as much as possible in 2023 given that Pollard will be a free agent in 2024, but that increase in volume is likely to occur regardless thanks to Ezekiel Elliott (and his 231 vacated carries) departing this offseason. Pollard, who has already signed his franchise tag and will play for $10.1M this season, will avoid the drama surrounding a potential holdout like his fellow tag-mates Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley. With ample time to recover from his injury and the runway to elite volume clear, only potential injury seems to stand in between Pollard and another Top-10 fantasy season, with upside to finish as the overall RB1.

• Skyy to play in the slot Moore? 🤔

  • According to Nate Taylor from The Athletic, that could be in the cards in 2023. Taylor writes that WR Skyy Moore appears to be the Chiefs’ “top slot receiver option” for the new season, ahead of free agent addition Richie James. Moore enters his second season with the Chiefs after a relatively underwhelming rookie year that saw him log just 22 receptions for 250 yards, but could be in for an increased workload with the departure of Juju Smith-Schuster via free agency. Moore played just under half of his snaps from the slot in 2022 (48.7%) and failed to register more than 5 targets in all but three games. That number figures to go up as Moore develops over the course of the year and if he can hold onto the starting slot role through camp.

Q: Is Kyler Murray worth a late round stash? Especially if we don’t take a flier on a QB early.

• I don’t think he is. I don’t think they rush him back on the field. The Cardinals have a lot invested in him, and they don’t have a playoff roster. They’re going to take it easy with him, so expect him to be back Week 7, Week 8, maybe even later.

• If the Cardinals have one win at that point, what is the point of bringing him back at in Week 8? Why risk that with him with the contract that he has? If you draft him, he’ll be on your bench taking up a roster spot the entire time he’s out.

• And even when he comes back, there’s no DeAndre Hopkins, and he probably won’t be running around the same way he normally does. His rushing upside might take a little bit of a hit, he might be rusty, and he might not even give you that much or any positional advantage at the QB position - a position where only a couple of QBs actually do give you a positional advantage.

• It’s not worth it. This is not Patrick Mahomes. This is not Jalen Hurts. This is not Lamar Jackson. The cost of him sitting on your bench for that long just isn’t worth it for me.

Q: Dynasty startup: Breece Hall, Jaylen Waddle, or Garrett Wilson?

• So just off the bat, I have Jaylen Waddle one spot ahead of Garrett Wilson in my dynasty rankings. Why? He had 104 receptions his rookie season, I think he edges out Garrett Wilson in terms of who had a better rookie year, but it’s obviously very close… they both had very close to a 25% target share their rookie year.

• But then Waddle had two great seasons on the books - he played every game his first two years, he hit 1300 yards receiving his 2nd year, and the trajectory is pointing up. The trajectory is pointing up for Garrett Wilson too with Aaron Rodgers, so it’s a toss-up.

• Wilson is also two years younger, so that is also a factor… I do think that Garrett Wilson has the higher overall ceiling, so if that’s what you’re going for, go Wilson. I’d always rather take a young established WR who has a chance of being a superstar than a RB, even if that RB is a ridiculous talent like Breece Hall. RB windows are short, WR windows are long.

• I like buying Breece in dynasty right now, but if all of them are on the board with the same pick, I’m taking one of these WRs. What if this post-ACL year is a lost year for Breece? He can come back strong in 2024, he’ll still be 23, but the hope is that you drafted a solid enough team to compete in his window. I do think young star WRs are the cornerstones of any dynasty roster, so that’s who I’d go with.

Lamar Jackson UNDER 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns 😳

• Lamar has rushed the ball more than 100 times in a season three times in his career, and those were his first three seasons in the league. In those years (2018, 2019, and 2020), he rushed for 5 TDs, 7 TDs, and 7 TDs.

• In 2021 and 2022, he rushed the ball 83 and 86 times, respectively, for two and three rushing TDs in each of those seasons. That was in Greg Roman’s trench warfare offensive scheme, where running the ball was the first, second, and third option.

• Now, the Ravens have brought in Todd Monken, and Lamar has come out and said that there’s going to be a much larger emphasis in the passing game this year, as well. Plus, the Ravens went out and actually put their money where their mouth is, getting Lamar actual weapons for the first time in his career. J.K. Dobbins is going to be healthy and running the ball plenty, too.

• Let’s not get it twisted, though – Lamar is capable of rushing for 7 touchdowns in a season. But that’s a high number for any quarterback, even the former MVP, and with a shift in offensive philosophy looming and more weapons to make the prospect of throwing the ball much more attractive, I’m willing to bet that the rushing TD numbers stay low as they have the past two seasons.

• It’s also worth mentioning that Lamar has missed five games in each of the past two seasons.

Jared Goff OVER 4000.5 Passing Yards 🦁

• Goff attempted the sixth-most passes in the NFL (587) and threw for over 4K yards with Khalif Raymond as the receiver with the next most receiving yards behind Amon-Ra St. Brown.

• The Lions replaced D’Andre Swift, a receiving running back that they weren’t keen on using, with Jahmyr Gibbs, who is arguably the premier pass catching back in the 2023 class… and they took him in the first round.

• There’s only one way to get the ball in the hands of Jahmyr Gibbs in the receiving game, and that’s through Jared Goff. You don’t think Goff is going to enjoy Gibbs inflating his stats? Gibbs ranked inside the top-5 in Y/RR in all three years of his college career! Not to mention that Sam LaPorta was also drafted in the second round and will be an upgrade to the leftovers that existed on the Lions roster behind T.J. Hockenson.

• The Lions took an obvious step forward in the second half of the season, and that led to them finishing with the fifth-highest scoring offense in 2022. The supporting cast is better and Goff did more with less last year. Now he can do more, with more, and that means 4,000 yards will be just a mile marker on the way to him smashing this pick.

Tony Pollard OVER 1025.5 Rush Yards 💪

• Pollard ran for over 1000 yards last season while Zeke carried the ball 231 times himself. He was fifth in the NFL in yards per attempt last year, second in YCO/A, and was the only running back under 200 carries to have over 30 rushes of 10+ yards.

• In a nutshell, Pollard has been hyper efficient his entire career and he finally got the opportunity in 2022 to burst onto the fantasy scene. Now, Zeke is out of the picture, and he’s primed for a goal line role. Pollard should easily have 230 or more touches in the ground game in 2023, and that’s a low number.

• Even if his efficiency takes a slight dip as a result of a more consistent workload, it’s hard to imagine a running back with his talent not blowing past the 1000 yard milestone with ease.

This is one of the trickiest situations to judge heading into 2023.

As of now, there’s no clarity on if, or when, discipline will be passed down from the league for Kamara. Kamara recently plead guilty to classify his charge as a misdemeanor and not a felony. The onus now falls on NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell to determine whether or not Kamara will face a suspension in 2023, which would likely be for 6 games, per precedent.

The Saints’ moves at RB – signing Jamaal Williams and drafting 3rd round RB Kendre Miller, suggest they are anticipating a suspension for Kamara in 2023, whether it be to start the season or is handed out mid-season (similar to Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension in 2017).

It was an uncharacteristically down season in 2022 for Kamara, finishing with just 1,387 total yards and 4 TDs in his lowest-scoring season (RB16) in his career. Primarily attributable to a poor offense, it was the first time in his career that Kamara failed to finish as a top-8 RB in points or PPG.

That’s where the dilemma is: how much is it worth risking to draft an RB1 that may miss a third (or more) of the season?

His draft price is wildly varying, going anywhere from a mid-RB3 (RB28) and late-6th/early-7th rounder on ECR to that of a low-RB3 (RB35) in the 9th round on ADP. He will be a league-deciding player in 2023, whether that be costing those weeks due to a suspension or winning them due to not being suspended.

Here’s my position on Kamara for this season: I am very comfortable taking him anywhere that he doesn’t have to be in the lineup for Week 1. Whether that be as your RB3 on the bench, or as an RB2 in leagues that have SUS/RES spots, I am fine with him on the bench as high as the 5th round. If he can’t be slotted onto your bench, whether you are drafting him as your RB2 (without a SUS/RES spot) or as a must-play FLEX (without an alternative), I wouldn’t draft him until you have those spots filled.

The upside is off the charts, especially within a likely greatly-improved offense. It all comes down to how comfortable you are drafting a potentially suspended player.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Out of the top 10 reception leaders among WRs in 2022, nine players tallied over 1,000 yards receiving and averaged just under 8 receiving TDs each between them. The lone receiver to not eclipse 1,000 yards despite finishing inside the top-10 in total receptions? Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr.

The scarce production on such a high target volume suggests that there’s something more at play that’s responsible for Pittman’s modest output in 2022, and that’s because there was. The rest of the top-10 reception leaders each had solid QB play at the minimum in 2022, while Pittman was left to fend for himself while he waited out the storm of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles at QB.

Pittman Jr.’s 139 targets tied for 7th among all NFL receivers last year, and he missed being part of the 100-catch club by just one reception, finishing with 99 on the season. The Colts offense was downright anemic in 2022, but there is room for a slight uptick in offensive production with the greatest QB combine athlete under center and Jonathan Taylor returning to full health.

Ultimately, Pittman Jr. is stuck in a classic situation where he’s a great receiver on a bad team, but it’s encouraging and important to note that the underlying metrics he’s putting up are consistent with that of an elite alpha WR. As we know, alpha WRs eat first, so Pittman’s dynasty stock remains high despite a short-term drop in value for redraft leagues.