LA's Top 2 Runners Are Out for Week 7 🥲

Did anyone have a defensive slugfest between the Cowboys and Chargers on their bingo card for last night?

What’s in store:

• Kyren Williams hits his first bump in the road. He’s expected to miss the Rams’ Week 7 matchup against the Steelers with a sprained ankle.

• Can Bijan AND Allgeier eat in Atlanta? If they continue to underutilize their receivers, it’s a real possibility!

• The Bengals lay an egg in Cleveland. If you started any of their players this week, you’re probably heading into MNF down a lot of points.

• The Eagles backfield is earning a lot of targets in 2023 👀. At least, compared to last year they are.

• Bears QB Justin Fields appears to have avoided serious injury to throwing hand, status remains doubtful for Week 7

  • After being unable to finish the game Sunday, the indication is that Fields has avoided major injury and won’t require surgery on his dislocated thumb. The issue for the Bears QB has been identified as grip strength, which he will look to regain through rehab. With Tyson Bagent slated to most likely draw the start for Chicago in Week 7, the entire Bears receiving corps. should be expected to take a hit in Fields’ absence. A rookie under center, though, could mean good things for RB Roschon Johnson from a volume perspective, who could see increased work if Chicago opts not to put the game on Bagent’s shoulders. In what would be his first career start against a tough Steelers defense, expectation should be tempered universally for the Bears passing game.

• Rams RB Kyren Williams revealed to have a sprained ankle, expected to miss Week 7 vs the Steelers

  • Not exactly the news fantasy managers were hoping or expecting to hear on the heels of Williams’ best rushing day as a pro. The good news is that the Rams have made it no mystery that the second year back would miss the game next weekend, allowing ample time to comb the waiver wire for a quick streaming replacement while he’s out. The other good news is that the injury isn’t considered long-term. With backup Ronnie Rivers also dealing with a PCL sprain, the focus will turn to rookie 5th-rounder Zach Evans in the LA backfield to shoulder the load against Pittsburgh. The Rams have been a pass-first offense this season and will continue to be as long as Stafford is healthy, but Evans should step into a role with enough volume to be considered as a potential flex or RB3 play.

• Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence said to be ‘day-to-day’ with knee injury, not expected to miss extended time

  • Translation: there’s a fair chance that Lawrence could be ready to go for the Jaguars’ Thursday night clash with the Saints. Obviously, day-to-day could mean many different things with regards to a timeline for Lawrence to get back to 100%, but the primary concern of this being a multi-week injury, if any, seems to have been alleviated by this report. Lawrence has been one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks through six weeks this season, but that dependability hasn’t come with any upside at all – he’s finished no higher than the QB8 in any week yet this season. Pay attention to reports out of Jacksonville’s practices this week, of course, but the expectation at this point should be that Lawrence will play on Thursday. A tough road matchup awaits against a Saints defense allowing just 12 points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

• Rashee Rice (WR - Kansas City Chiefs) - Rashee Rice has gradually become more and more involved as the season has progressed, now hitting 11+ points in three of his last four games. He leads all Chiefs' WRs in target share, yards, and TDs, and more specifically, has been the definitive go-to target (not named Kelce) for Mahomes over the last four weeks. Rice is a VERY high priority target, especially given the fact that the Chiefs' offense has been rather pedestrian to start the season.

• Curtis Samuel (WR - Washington Commanders) - Samuel has established himself as a rather reliable option thus far in 2023, whether it be via volume (5+ catches in 3 games) or via the endzone (3 TDs), now having posted 50+ yards, a TD, and 14+ points in each of his last three games. He's thrived in Bieniemy's offense and between Sam Howell's recent emergence & the very favorable upcoming schedule for Washington (NYG, PHI, SEA, NYG within the next 5 weeks), Samuel should be a FLEX option for the foreseeable future.

• Tyjae Spears (RB - Tennessee Titans) - RB is a very scarce position, especially right now. If Spears is somehow still on your waiver wire, he shouldn't be after this week. He's proven to be a very efficient RB, averaging 5.5 YPC this season and posting 7+ points in each of his last three games, even alongside Derrick Henry. You're not getting a lead back, but you are getting a solid depth option with extremely high potential should Henry miss any time.

• Quentin Johnston (WR - Los Angeles Chargers) - Johnston hasn't played yet this week, there's nothing new in LA, and he's still available in over 50% of leagues. My analysis still stands from last week. He should be owned.

• Jameson Williams (WR - Detroit Lions) - My point still stands on Jameson Williams - he is the definition of boom or bust. In Week 5, he had just 2 yards & 2.2 points. In Week 6, he had 53 and a TD (13.3 points). He's a big-play threat on any given week and offers very little security but is a must-stash given his talent and potential. The only question is how involved he will be by season's end.

• Jonnu Smith (TE - Atlanta Falcons) - Arthur Smith's offensive scheme, while the death to many other weapons, continues to prove VERY profitable for a traditional TE. Jonnu Smith has now established a fairly solid floor in an otherwise insecure position, drawing 5+ targets, 4+ catches, and 8+ points in five straight games, including three straight of double-digit points. For those who don't have a top TE (or even a secure TE1 in general), I'd strongly encourage grabbing Smith off the waiver wire.

Coming into the season, one of the primary reasons for concern for D’Andre Swift in the Eagles backfield was what his workload in the receiving game would look like. Given Hurts’ ability in the ground game and the Eagles’ high-percentage of designed QB runs, there were serious questions about whether Swift would theoretically be able to sustain high-end fantasy production exclusively with potentially limited receiving work. That narrative has been flipped on its head through six weeks.

What we’ve seen from Jalen Hurts this season has been a new willingness to involve the running backs in the passing game – especially compared to the numbers the Eagles put up last year. In 2022, just 13% of Hurts’ targets went to running backs, and the average target share of the three RBs to be on the field for 150+ snaps (Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott) sat at just 10%.

In 2023, those numbers are way up in the Eagles backfield, and it’s not just D’Andre Swift reaping the benefits of the strong workload through the air. Both Eagles RBs have at least a 16% targets per route run figure (Gainwell at 16% and Swift at 21%), and their combined target share of 19% represents a sharp increase in targets to pass catchers out of the backfield from 2022 to 2023.

Also worth noting is that no Eagles running back in 2022 registered a weekly target share over 17% in 17 games (Gainwell had a 17% target share in Week 1). Through six games this year, D’Andre Swift has registered target shares higher than 17% twice (18% in Week 5, and 21% on Sunday).