HOW LOW Could Mike Evans Sink in 2023? 😵

This wasn’t supposed to be an NFL uniform commentary column, but it’s kind of turned into that with all the heat these teams have been dropping lately 🔥

(Colts black uniforms just aren’t it, though 🤷‍♂️)

What’s in store:

• One AFC running back just cleared a HUGE hurdle in making his comeback in 2023 👀 You’ll have to scroll down to see who we’re talking about if you haven’t heard already!

• Jahmyr Gibbs is THAT dude for fantasy in 2023 🦁 Can he follow in the footsteps of fellow first-round running backs that came before him?

• HOW LOW could Mike Evans sink for fantasy in 2023? When your QB is Baker Mayfield… or Kyle Trask… or someone the Bucs picked up off the street… you could be in for a bumpy ride.

• When will Father Time turn the tables on Derrick Henry? It’s bound to happen, but Henry has proven that he’s not just any old RB.

• RB Javonte Williams will avoid the PUP list to begin training camp 🐴

  • Great news for the Broncos running back ahead of training camp, which seems to indicate that there’s a solid chance Williams is able to suit up for the Broncos season opener in September. While Williams’ recovery appears to be going very well and he cleared one of the largest obstacles in his path to returning to fantasy stardom in 2023, it’s still a possibility that the Broncos ease him back into the game plan slowly – especially with a very capable running back in Samaje Perine waiting in the wings to take the reigns if need be. The Broncos have no reason to rush Williams back from injury, but it’s obviously excellent news to hear that he’ll avoid deactivation for the first four weeks of the season.

• J.K. Dobbins unexpectedly lands on the PUP list

  • One of the less anticipated happenings of the past weekend has Dobbins managers not necessarily between a rock and a hard place, but dealing with additional uncertainty that didn’t exist before. While it’s unclear exactly why Dobbins landed on the list, a few subsequent reports have indicated that there has been no noticeable change in Dobbins’ demeanor, suggesting that his landing on the PUP list could be a simple business transaction. However, the Ravens did bring in veteran RB Melvin Gordon III on a cheap contract over the weekend as well, bracing themselves just in case Dobbins should miss time. With still over a month to go until the regular season begins and plenty of training camp yet to unfold, any worry about Dobbins can be placed on the back burner until further notice.

• Another sleeper TE emerging on the fantasy radar?

  • According to official Lions.com reporter Tim Twentyman, rookie TE Sam LaPorta is “expected to have a role right away” and be an “important part” of the Detroit offense. When the Lions drafted LaPorta in the second round of the draft a few months ago, it was clear they planned for him to be a contributor to the offense in the long term, but it appears that he’s taken the strides necessary to be a contributor in the short-term as well. He was widely recognized as one of the best after-the-catch receiving tight ends in the draft, following in the steps of a few great Iowa TEs ahead of him (George Kittle, Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson). The similarities between LaPorta and Hockenson are only magnified by the fact that the Lions drafted LaPorta to fill the hole left by Hockenson after Detroit traded him mid-season to Minnesota. While it’s hard to project rookie TEs for great fantasy success given their uninspiring track record, LaPorta certainly qualifies as a sleeper in a field of TEs that is incredibly top heavy.

• WRs Amari Cooper, Kadarious Toney are “tweakin” early in training camp

  • Both receivers appear to be dealing with minor injuries in the early stages of training camp, but nothing has come out yet about either player to cast doubt on their availability in Week 1. As we’ll find moving forward in training camp, playing injury news like these reports by ear will be very common, and there’s no reason to panic about either player at this point in time. Of course, these aren’t exactly reports you want to hear – but with plenty of time yet to pass ahead of kickoff in September, managers can rest assured that both receivers should be able to get right with plenty of time to spare – even if that includes missing time in camp.

• Jahmyr Gibbs will likely finish as a fantasy RB1 as a rookie. David Montgomery will likely handle a big portion, and maybe majority, of the RB carries in Detroit - but it might not matter. A running back with Gibbs’ receiving profile can overcome that challenge. Just ask Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey!

• Kamara and CMC were both second options in the ground game, and both had 120 rushing attempts or less with no goal line role. So what made them special?

• Both of them had 80+ catches in their rookie season. Kamara finished as the overall RB4 and CMC as the RB11 in PPR fantasy points/game. But why compare Gibbs to these guys?

• Gibbs is right there with those two in their college receiving efficiency. Gibbs has two top-10 yards/route run seasons among hundreds of qualifying FBS RBs since 2014. And what’s more: the role for Gibbs in the Lions’ offense is clear as day.

• D’Andre Swift was targeted on 27% of his routes run last year, and Detroit replaced him with Gibbs. For context, Austin Ekeler was at 28%. (By the way, Swift was a RB1 in 2021 in PPR FPPG in that role). The draft capital is there, too.

• There have been 5 RBs selected in the Top-12 of the NFL Draft over the last 10 seasons, and all of them finished as a RB1 in PPR points/game in their rookie season.

• When you combine Gibbs’ receiving profile, his explosiveness, his athletic profile, and an existing role, it’s very possible Gibbs is being drafted near his floor as the RB14 off the board. He’s going off the board in the 4th round on Underdog - take advantage of the value.

• Oh, Mike Evans. I think this could be the year where you finally lose your 1000-yard season streak – but it won’t be your fault. It’ll be the fault of the Buccaneers front office, leaving you to melt in your creamsicle jersey in the flames of the raging dumpster fire of a QB room they’ve assembled to fill the shoes of the actual goat.

• All dramatic prophecies aside, Evans is staring at a tall challenge to keep his streak alive this season, but if anyone is going to overcome the presumptive abomination the Bucs are content to label QB play, it’s Chris Godwin, not Mike Evans.

• Godwin is a bona fide target earner, and that’s evidenced by 11 straight weeks of 8 or more targets last year from Week 6-17 when he drew in 127 targets total. The production levels weren’t always as high as Mike Evans, but he also went 13 straight games with at least 10 PPR points on a Buccaneers offense that wasn’t very good at all last year.

• Evans also got a bunch of targets, 112 to be exact, but he caught much fewer of those targets than Godwin did (he registered just a 61.6% catch rate vs Godwin’s 74.8% rate in that span). He had spike weeks in that time frame, but they were few and far between - he finished as a top-10 receiver just three times all season, but finished outside the top-30 on nine separate occasions, with a WR29 finish sprinkled in there as well.

• Which player would you rather have on your fantasy team as your WR3? That’s the range that both Evans and Godwin are being drafted, and it’s obviously no question that Godwin is the better fantasy receiver, but there’s a point to be made about Evans potentially slipping well outside the top-40 WRs on a bad Buccaneers offense.

• I think a lot of people would agree that Evans might have lost a step last year, and he’s entering his age 30 season… and it took a 200 yard receiving performance in his last game of the year to hit 1000 yards on the league’s highest-volume passing offense. If Evans struggled to meet that mark in 2022 with Tom Brady at QB, it’s going to be a rough ride for him in 2023 with Baker Mayfield, at best, under center. 

• And that’s not even accounting for Rachaad White’s projected role in the receiving game!

After a 2021 season that was shortened to just 8 games due to a season-ending foot injury, Derrick Henry returned in typical Derrick Henry fashion, posting over 1,900 total yards and 13 TDs as he finished as the RB4 in fantasy in 2022.

That production came despite being in one of the worst offenses in the NFL, which ranked 28th in scoring and 30th in overall yardage. To put that into perspective, Henry accounted for over 38% of the Titans’ offensive yardage and TDs.

Thus far in his career, Henry has shown to be a freak athlete, but at some point, reality will hit – the question is when will that be? At 29 years old, with 380+ touches in 2 of the last 3 seasons and over 1,800 career touches, Henry appears to be coming close to a decline.

Between his age, wear-and-tear, a bottom-tier offense, and the Titans’ investment in a change-of-pace RB (Tyjae Spears, 3rd rounder), it looks like Henry may be due for regression in 2023, whether it be from efficiency or from a reduced workload.

I still have him as a mid-to-low RB1 option, but expectations for Henry should be severely tempered compared to previous seasons. At a mid-2nd round price tag, those tempered expectations are already factored in and allow for him to be taken as a low-RB1 or a truly elite-RB2 option.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Deshaun Watson has reportedly looked like a “different player” so far this offseason for the Browns compared to the back end of 2022, and that has fantasy football managers high on Browns pass catchers for the 2023. Season. Among those players is David Njoku, who has seen the hype surrounding his value with Watson at the helm reflected in his TE9 Underdog ADP. However, one statistic tells us that there’s a chance that Njoku doesn’t return on investment at his price.

In Deshaun Watson’s fantasy heyday from 2018-2020, no Texans tight end finished higher than the overall TE17 on the season. And that TE17 season? That was a statistical outlier, inflated by 7 TDs from Deshaun Watson to Darren Fells - the TE with the third most receiving yards that year on the Texans roster.

Njoku himself has also never finished higher than the TE9 in his career, doing so in 2018. At his current price, he’s being drafted at his career ceiling – and with the addition of Elijah Moore, the target share might be too spread out for him to come through at his price.