Mingo or Thielen in 2023?

What do normal people usually do on July 12th? Oh, it’s not drafting numerous best ball teams on Underdog?

What’s in store:

• Could Alvin Kamara play the whole season in 2023? ⚜️ The first step towards that happening was taken yesterday, but the threat of missing time still looms for the Saints dual-threat RB.

• Cut Kyle Pitts some slack, would ya? Faraz had an all-time soap box on the Falcons TE – see why not all hope should be lost.

• This or that: Panthers WR edition. Faraz and Zach don’t see eye to eye on the WR to target in Carolina for 2023, so you can make the call: which Panthers WR do you want more?

• Could Broncos Country be riding once again? Tyler explains why Russell Wilson could be due for a bounce back season in a big way.

• Jonathan Taylor progressing well in recovery from minor cleanup surgery

  • Colts owner Jim Irsay said that Taylor’s ankle is “healed up” ahead of training camp after he missed minicamp and OTAs earlier this year. Taylor’s status for 2023 was never in question with regards to his availability, but his true fantasy upside remains in question with the Colts offense in line to potentially struggle to get off the runway. The addition of Anthony Richardson in particular raises the most concerns for Taylor, especially when it comes to his prospective goal line role. Regardless, it appears that all signs are pointing up with regards to Taylor’s health and fantasy managers can expect him to be ready for Week 1.

• The RB2 in New York has been identified… for now

  • The Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt predicts that Michael Carter, not Zonovan Knight or Israel Abanikanda, will be the Jets’ number 2 RB come week 1 – assuming that Dalvin Cook is not added to the backfield by then. The value that any of the running backs involved in the Jets committee have figures to be low as Breece Hall continues to make the strides necessary in his recovery to see the field in Week 1. However, Carter could figure to see additional work if no other ball carriers are added between now and the beginning of the season, and his receiving ability in particular could allow him to be a consistent contributor early in the season. Once Breece is all the way back from his injury, though, none of the running backs in New York figure to have much value besides as handcuffs. Carter’s value would be unlocked if he’s able to avoid additional competition via a late free agent signing and if Breece Hall takes more time than expected to return to 100%.

• Alvin Kamara gets a win, but he’s not out of the woods yet…

  • Saints RB Alvin Kamara seems to have avoided jail time stemming from the misdemanor charge he picked up in Las Vegas on Pro Bowl weekend, but it remains to be seen whether or not the NFL will pursue a punishment via the league’s personal conduct policy. The threat of Kamara’s absence in 2023 still looms, so his price will likely stick where it’s at right now (RB34, 102.2 - 9th Round), but it doesn’t appear as though any suspension would be a season-long at this point. The Saints did add last season’s scrimmage TD leader in Jamaal Williams and drafted TCU RB Kendre Miller, so Kamara’s role isn’t necessarily guaranteed to match what we’ve seen from him historically. However, this news does qualify as a win for Kamara and brings him a step closer to an obstacle-free regular season.

• There are a lot of Kyle Pitts haters out there. You guys are so impatient. You guys are done with Kyle Pitts. Why? Because he didn’t come through for you last year, and he only had 1 TD in his rookie season?First of all, tight ends don’t come on until a little later in their careers. Typically, it takes a couple of years in the league before tight ends really come on. One of the reasons why Kyle Pitts had so much hype around him is because he was probably the best tight end prospect of all time coming into the NFL. And what did he do? He had the most receiving yards of any rookie tight end since Mike Ditka in 1961. 2 yards/route run as a rookie - that was top-3. He did that with Arthur Smith as his head coach.

• Last year he had Marcus Mariota throwing him the ball - giving him a catchable ball on only 59% of his targets, when the league average to a tight end is 79%. Credit to Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland on that one… he still finished top-6 in yards/route run.

• In a bad passing environment, he still was pretty efficient… and because he scored only 1 TD in his rookie year, people want to think he had a bad season and overlook the historic part of it. Aww, but he wasn’t good for fantasy though. Yeah, the 21 year old wasn’t good for fantasy for you… as a tight end. How do we figure out if a player is going to be a good fantasy player? By figuring whether he’s a good football player first.

• In his first two seasons, he’s put up the 7th most receiving yards in the first two years of a TE since the year 2000. The TEs who had similar numbers? Mark Andrews, right above him at 6 (he played four more games in that span). The players just beneath Pitts? Antonio Gates and Jason Witten.

• And now, he’s going into this third year… he’s 22 years old right now and turns 23 in October. So yeah, we should still be excited about his potential - because he previewed and had a historic season before we should’ve had any expectations of a tight end coming into the NFL. We have a lot more Kyle Pitts to see, even if you’re out him this year. I get it, there’s a lot of unknown, but I don’t think we can deny the potential for his career. Things can change quick - the Falcons can be a dynamic offense with him, Bijan, Drake London. And if they underperform, Arthur Smith could be out, and these guys would have the chance to be unleashed under a new coaching staff. Let’s be a little patient.

Faraz’s pick: Jonathan Mingo (WR63, 141.0 - 12th Round)

• Simply put, I think Mingo has a shot at becoming Bryce Young’s #1 target. The way I see it is Adam Thielen on the outside, just like where he spent a majority of his passing snaps over the last several years in Minnesota, Terrace Marshall on the other side as the X, and Jonathan Mingo as the slot receiver.

• Mingo can gobble up receptions short to intermediate out of the slot, and can be Young’s safety valve. I do think he has PPR WR3 upside and he can run all of the routes you want him to run out of the slot.

• If you look at Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception profile on him, those out routes, in the flat, slant routes, curl routes - he’s dominated on those particular patterns. That’s exactly what you want to see if he’s going to be running out of the slot, which is where I anticipate him working from most of the time.

• Despite his size, I think his athleticism and short to intermediate route running is perfect for the slot. I saw it first hand at the Senior Bowl; the dude was just gobbling up targets and receptions. Two guys were doing that, actually: Mingo, and Puka Nacua. But Mingo was just doing everything, and if he was on my Senior Bowl practice week fantasy team, he would’ve been the PPR WR1. He got the draft capital, they’re impressed with him, and I think the hype will start to build once training camp starts.

Zach’s pick: Adam Thielen (WR64, 142.9 - 12th Round)

• Look around the Panthers wide receiver room, and you don’t find a whole lot in terms of established talent outside of Thielen. Yes, Jonathan Mingo can come along during the season and emerge as a legit X – but that will take time. Laviska Shenault, Terrace Marshall, and D.J. Chark are all role players, but none will register snap shares to outperform their ADPs.

• That leaves Thielen, who Panthers beat reporters are saying has a real chance to lead Carolina in receptions this year. Bryce Young is, well, young, and veteran receivers like Thielen tend to be a young quarterback’s best friend.

• Thielen is getting up there in age, I’ll concede that… but the Panthers signed him to a 3-year deal and clearly plan to feature him in the offense. If he’s the Panthers WR1 for five or six weeks to open the season, that’s going to be enough volume even with a rookie at quarterback to shatter his WR64 ADP. And even then, the likelihood of Thielen slipping behind another receiver besides Mingo in 2023 is very low, so at worst, he’s the WR2 on a team that could realistically contend for a division title.

• He clearly has a knack for finding the end zone, too, evidenced by 30 touchdowns over the past three seasons in Minnesota. I’ll take the most experienced receiver in a room full of young receivers.

“Horrific” doesn’t even begin to describe Russell Wilson’s 2022 season – finishing as the QB16 in points and the QB19 in PPG with 3,524 passing yards and 16 passing TDs to 11 INTs. It was definitively Wilson’s worst season as a pro with career-worst numbers in completion percentage, passing TDs, total TDs, passer rating, fantasy points, and fantasy PPG.

However, Wilson did show some signs of life towards the end of the year, posting 23+ points in three of his final four games (two of which were without then-HC Nathaniel Hackett) and ranking as the QB4 in PPG in that stretch. With RB Javonte Williams, WR Tim Patrick, and WR KJ Hamler all returning from injury, seeing the addition of 2nd-round pick Marvin Mims, and (most importantly) having Sean Payton as Head Coach, the odds are very good that Wilson turns it back around to what expectations were heading into 2022.

Many are forgetting that before the 2021 season that saw Wilson miss time (and suffer throughout the season) due to a hand injury, he was a top-12 fantasy QB every season in his career and had been a top-6 QB in three of the four prior seasons.

The historical production is there. The supporting cast is there. The offensive scheme is there. Everything is there for Wilson to potentially return as a top-5 fantasy QB.

Recency bias will be extremely prevalent for Wilson heading into drafts this season with him currently presenting an 11th/12th round price tag as the QB17/QB18 off the board. I’d be comfortable spending more than that on Wilson as a mid-to-high QB2, especially given his upside. At his current price, there may not be a better draft-day value at QB (or any position) than Wilson.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw a league-high 15 interceptions in 12 games in 2022, but was able to offset those negative points by leading the league in passing touchdowns from Week 8 on with 22. Dak Prescott’s return under center – and the subsequent bump in QB play enjoyed by WR Ceedee Lamb – allowed Lamb to bump his FPPG from 20th in the NFL between weeks 1-6 (14.6) up to 3rd in the NFL between Weeks 7-18 (19.5).

Prescott paced the league in touchdowns between weeks 8-18 with less weapons in 2022 than he’ll have at his disposal in 2023, suggesting that a bounce back season is in the cards for the Cowboys quarterback. Brandin Cooks is in the fold, and the Cowboys let Dalton Schultz walk in free agency to open up opportunity for athletic second-year TE Jake Ferguson.

Prescott’s interception totals are also likely to regress to the mean, as his receivers averaged just 3.2 yards of separation – a microcosm of the Cowboys lacking true talent out wide last year and being forced to depend on career backups like Noah Brown. Prescott still managed to string together nine-straight performances of 15.0+ fantasy points between weeks 8 and 17 despite the high number of interceptions, making him one of the safest options at quarterback thanks to his presence on a strong Cowboys offense.