Why, why, why are the white helmets being worn with the black jersey? These would be incredible with the all white uniforms. It’s the same issue the Saints have wearing their black helmets with their all white uniforms.

What’s in store:

• Is a Ja’Marr Chase holdout suddenly in the cards? 😬 He’s at practice this week, sure… but he isn’t participating.

• The Panthers are set to feature Diontae Johnson (sorry Adam Thielen). HC Dave Canales’ latest comments cement him as Carolina’s WR1.

• Dawson Knox could be a real thorn in the side in 2024. The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia casts doubt on Kincaid’s breakout in his latest report.

• George Pickens is primed for a breakout… right? Faraz sees it in his range of outcomes, but will he be a true fantasy WR1?

• Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase attends Bengals’ first two practices to begin training camp, doesn’t participate

  • Add the Bengals star WR to the list of playmakers with drama surrounding their immediate availability in 2024. Chase still has two years left on his current deal in Cincinnati including the 5th-year option that he had picked up earlier this offseason, so his leverage isn’t as strong as, say, Ceedee Lamb or Brandon Aiyuk. Both of them are on the final year of their respective deals, a stark difference from Chase who doesn’t exactly have incredible ifluence to force an extension this offseason. Regardless of the logistics, Chase has already more than proven himself among the league’s best as a top-flight receiver in the NFL and it’s only a matter of time before he gets his mega-deal, be it this offseason or the next. Bengals president Mike Brown quickly flattened any speculation about a potential early deal for the former LSU star, saying that now may not be ‘the good time to negotiate’ with training camp getting underway. The current read on the situation is that Chase could be primed for a hold-in, so to speak, as he’s been present at the team’s practices but has refused to participate. Given the current trends, it’s unlikely that Chase misses any time even if a deal isn’t pushed over the finish line – however, in the event that this becomes an issue and Chase misses regular season games, WRs Tee Higgins and rookie Jermaine Burton would be set up nicely as QB Joe Burrow’s top options to open the year.

• Panthers HC Dave Canales says that they plan to ‘feature’ WR Diontae Johnson in 2024

  • Adam Thielen’s six-week pre-bye Linsanity run to open the 2023 season will forever live on in our hearts, but it didn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the Panthers needed to get Bryce Young a true No. 1 receiver heading into Year 2. Enter Diontae Johnson, a player that new HC Dave Canales has apparently fallen in love with and plans to make a focal point of his offense in 2024. Quotes and other nuggets have come out over the course of the offseason suggesting that the Panthers view Johnson as an Alpha receiver, and Canales’ latest comments certainly justify that notion. Johnson profiles as a target-earning X receiver with a long history of commanding WR1-worthy target shares – he logged 140+ targets and 80+ catches every year from 2020 to 2022, and he was on pace for more than 100 targets once again in 2023 but ended up missing four games to finish the year at just 87. Adam Thielen is still around but will likely take a back seat to Johnson and potentially rookie 1st-round WR Xavier Legette, who also could challenge Johnson for targets from Bryce Young. However, the former Steelers No. 1 is no stranger to fighting off target competition, and in a role that sounds just about as good as it gets from a fantasy perspective in Carolina, he has a chance to really thrive and be a value in fantasy drafts at his current WR43 price on Underdog and Sleeper.

• The Bills may not ‘fully commit’ to TE Dalton Kincaid as the clear No. 1 starter on the depth chart with Dawson Knox healthy, per the Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia

  • We’ll need to get a live stream started to document the ADP drop for Kincaid over the next few weeks if similar reports to this one continue to emerge. It’s been the assumption that Kincaid would take the next step in Year 2 with Josh Allen at QB, especially with Stefon Diggs out of Buffalo and the target competition around him being largely unproven. However, the Kincaid Top-5 TE train might never get out of the station if veteran TE Dawson Knox will be limiting Kincaid’s route participation in 2024. Consider that in five games without Knox in the lineup from Weeks 8-12 last year, Kincaid averaged 14.2 PPR points per game, nearly twice as many PPR points per game as he did in games Knox played in (7.4). It’s an unfortunate development for Kincaid and his fantasy managers who were hoping to see him take on a more permanent role in the Bills offense, and while this could very well just be smoke at this point of the offseason, the fact that Knox remains a part of the conversation at tight end is nonetheless discouraging. With Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel figuring to apply additional pressure to what’s likely to be an already well-distributed target share, it’ll be important in the coming weeks to stay on top of the Bills TE room as we get closer to kickoff.

I think many are projecting a big breakout year for George Pickens this season because Diontae Johnson is gone - and I think there is definitely merit to that statement. Diontae was a true target earner - an elite separator, etc. You know my love for Diontae at this point - and in 4 games without Diontae in his career (all last year), Pickens averaged 8.3 targets, 89.3 receiving yards, and 16.6 fantasy points/game. That fantasy points/game number is the mark of a Top-12 WR.

One thing to keep in mind is that it was a sample of only 4 games, and he averaged only 4.3 receptions during those games. I think a breakout is 100% a potential outcome this year - his first two years cumulatively have been great. 800 and 1140 yards the last two seasons… but only 52 catches and 63 catches in each of those two seasons, though. 2.25 yards/route run was awesome - 16th among all WRs with 100+ targets last year. But his 1st downs/route run? 6th worst last year. He was a big play guy - and it’s very possible he remains a big play guy. Can a big play guy have a big year? Can they break out? Yes, of course. Especially with a QB upgrade, who specifically does well throwing down field. Russell Wilson was 8th in deep passer rating among qualifying QBs, Kenny Pcikett ranked 33rd of the 38 QBs who qualified.

Check out the latest YouTube Video: 2024 RB and WR Breakouts! ⬇️

But another thing about Russell Wilson, among qualifying QBs, he was dead last in percentage of his throws targeting his first read last year. Pickens should be the first read on most plays, but the whole point is that we want him to get the target volume. And by the way, I didn’t even mention Arthur Smith. Drake London had a 22% target share last year - and now we’re drafting him as a low-end WR1. What will Pickens’ target share actually look like? Courtland Sutton had a 19% target share last year - he probably would’ve had an even higher target share if Russ actually threw to his first read at an average rate.

While I don’t know if Pickens is a high-volume true WR1 in the NFL - I would lean towards no on that – I do think he can mesh well with Russell Wilson if all goes well, and he can break out in that scenario. But I think we might have to temper some expectations if we’re expecting this 1400-yard season from him and if we’re putting him in the same sentence as WRs like Drake London, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson – guys who have underperformed but who we also know are a good QB and system away from being truly elite in way more fashions than just making plays downfield.

I’ve seen people put him in that category, though – like he could get there, but I’m not sure I see that personally. Is a 1200-yard season with 8-10 TDs possible for Pickens this year? Yes. But I think he might be in line for more of the same of what we’ve seen already, but maybe more TDs this time around - closer to 8 or 9 than the 4 or 5 we’ve seen the last two years. That could turn out to be pretty damn good; 900-1000 yards and 8 or 9 TDs, I’ll take it… but it might be a bumpier ride that you think getting there.

Waddle missed three games last season including the Dolphins’ Week 3 fantasy football showcase against the Broncos, and despite his overall WR34 finish in total PPR points and WR21 finish in PPR points per game, he more than held his own running opposite arguably the best fantasy WR in the league. 2023 marked career lows for Waddle in targets (104), receptions (72), receiving yards (1014), and touchdowns (4), but he remained one of the most heavily utilized and efficient receivers in the NFL on a per-route basis; his ridiculous 0.30 targets per route run ranked 4th in the NFL despite playing on the same offense as Tyreek Hill (0.38 - 1st in the NFL), and his 2.93 yards per route run ranked fifth among all wide receivers to run at least 100 routes.

He’ll have to continue relying on that efficiency in an offense that ranked bottom-10 in overall pass rate in 2023, but when that same run-heavy offense ranks as the No. 1 unit in yardage and 2nd in total touchdowns, that low pass rate gets lost in the wash a bit. With Waddle profiling as one of the league’s most prolific target earners as one of just six players to check in at 0.3 or more targets per route run, fantasy managers shouldn’t lose any sleep over the additions of Odell Beckham Jr. and Malik Washington, who are unlikely to make a dent in Waddle’s workload.

Since his down season in 2023, Waddle has signed a new three-year extension that ties him to Mike McDaniel for the foreseeable future. That alone is enough of a reason to get excited about drafting him, but combine that with the league’s 6th-highest first downs per route run rate in 2023 and a WR1 season under his belt, and you’ve got yourself one hell of a fantasy WR2 with every week WR1 upside. Don’t be surprised if Waddle exceeds expectations this year, even on a Dolphins offense that’s packed to the brim with talent.