The next overall fantasy TE1 is...

If Trevor Lawrence, who is 20-30 over the past three years with 58 TD passes and one playoff win, is making $275M over the next five years… what is Dak Prescott, who is 36-15 over the past three years with 96 TD passes and one playoff win, going to make?

Just a fair question to ask, imho.

What’s in store:

• Hold your horses on Jonathon Brooks, says HC Dave Canales. The rookie 2nd-rounder might not be ready to go right off the bat.

• Jayden Daniels hasn’t locked down the QB1 spot - yet. ⏳ Marcus Mariota is evidently doing his best to make it a competition, but it still seems like a matter of when and not if for the 2nd overall pick.

• Could Courtland Sutton be raring for a potential holdout? 😯 After catching 10 TDs in 2023, it seems like he’s looking for long term security once again.

• The next overall TE1 might not be named Kelce, Andrews, or LaPorta… Faraz gives us his pick for a first-time overall TE1!

• Panthers HC Dave Canales says that rookie 2nd-round RB Jonathon Brooks isn’t certain to be ready for training camp

  • While we’re not even halfway through June (officially), this news should perk the ears of fantasy managers hoping to load up their draft portfolios with shares of the Panthers newest ballcarrier. Despite Brooks’ injury being referred to as a clean ACL tear with no additional ligament damage, it seems that the Panthers are less optimistic about his odds to participate in training camp on day one now that we’re closer to the actual start date. This isn’t a death sentence for any managers who have already drafted Brooks in their dynasty leagues with hopes of having him start meaningful games for them – it’s still a possibility that we see him suit up for Week 1. However, it’s never a good thing when original timelines for recovery are pushed back or brought into question, so it’ll be important to monitor the situation in the coming weeks. The Panthers made Brooks the first running back off the board two months ago in the draft by taking him in the second round, so it’s fair to say they have designs to use him in their offense as soon as he’s ready. In the meantime, fantasy managers may want to turn their attention to Chuba Hubbard as a potential lead back in the early parts of the season as Brooks gets back up to speed.

• Commanders HC Dan Quinn neglects to name starting quarterback heading into beginning of training camp

  • Despite a handful of positive reports coming out of camp regarding 2nd-overall draft selection Jayden Daniels, the Commanders have yet to anoint the former LSU star as the starting quarterback heading into training camp. Luckily for Daniels and fantasy football managers, the season doesn’t start tomorrow, meaning Daniels will have plenty of opportunities to capitalize on and cement himself as the starter by kickoff in September. His competition for the starting job is hardly stiff, with journeyman backup Marcus Mariota being the only thing standing between Daniels and quarterbacking an offense with a healthy number of weapons including Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, the recently drafted Ben Sinnott, and a two-headed monster in the backfield in Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler. Outside of Caleb Williams, no other rookie quarterbacks have officially been named the starters on their respective teams, so fantasy managers can treat this development as nothing more than business as usual. In reality, there are very few outcomes where Daniels isn’t under center in Week 1, and anything besides that would be a genuine shock.

• Broncos WR Courtland Sutton remains unsure of whether or not he will participate in Broncos training camp

  • After trading former first-round WR Jerry Jeudy to the Browns earlier this offseason, Courtland Sutton remains atop the depth chart in Broncos WR room that features little high-quality target competition heading into 2024. While the Broncos added veteran WR Josh Reynolds on a two-year deal and drafted former Oregon WR Troy Franklin, neither player figures to challenge Sutton for his role as the X receiver in the Broncos’ new offense with Bo Nix at the helm. Sutton remains unsure of whether or not he plans to participate in Denver’s training camp later this summer, citing an inability to come to terms with the team on a new contract ahead of the 2024 season. Unfortunately for the seventh-year pass catcher, he doesn’t have an incredible amount of leverage: he’s topped the 1000 yard mark just once in his career – and that was prior to his ACL tear in 2020. Since then, he’s logged three straight seasons of between 58 and 64 receptions, as well as between 770 and 830 receiving yards. With two years including 2024 remaining on his current deal, the Broncos have little incentive to get moving on a contract extension. Any potential absence by Sutton, however, would certainly dampen the prospects of Bo Nix in his first year in the league while opening up plenty of opportunity for Reynolds, Franklin, and even Marvin Mims.

When I look at the Steelers backfield this year, I just see a lot of success. They have a run-first offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith, they drastically improved their offensive line, and they have a couple of productive RBs… one of them being one of the most efficient in the NFL, and no, it’s not Najee Harris. Among qualifying RBs on a per carry basis, Jaylen Warren was #1 in yards after contact, #1 in missed tackles forced, and #3 in rushing yards over expectation, only behind Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane. Najee Harris had 100 more attempts than Warren did last year, and he was actually relatively solid efficiency wise. Nothing stood out, but he was’t bad. And with a better overall situation this year, this entire backfield gets lifted.

ADP wise between these two, it’s pretty close. Najee’s the RB20, Warren’s the RB25, and they’re being picked about 5 picks from each other. Here’s the thing about how he Arthur Smith handled Atlanta’s backfield last year - even though I believe Tyler Allgeier is a solid RB, the talent gap between him and Bijan Robinson was pretty large - mainly because Bijan is an outlier type of talent. The Steelers backfield doesn’t have that - and the more efficient RB is actually the backup in this case. So if Arthur Smith was willing to keep the touches in that backfield close - Bijan only had 28 more carries than Allgeier last year - what is he going to do in the Steelers backfield when the talent gap isn’t so big, and if anything, the backup in Pittsburgh has a bigger case to be on the field than Allgeier did.

Because of that, I prefer to take Warren at the cheaper price because there’s a decent chance that the touches are distributed a lot more evenly this year than last year. Not only that, but Warren was one of only 8 RBs last year to earn 70 targets - and among those RBs, he was 3rd in yards/route run. He also averaged more fantasy points/game than Najee did last year. If the touch gap decreases, I think going Warren over Najee at the slightly cheaper price will be the right decision.

If I had to choose a TE who has the best shot at becoming the overall fantasy TE1 in 2024, but has never finished as the fantasy TE1 before, I’m going with Trey McBride.

There were 6 tight ends who had 100 targets last year, and only one of them who ran a route on less than 65% of his team’s passing plays, and that was Trey McBride. The good news is that from Weeks 10 on last year, that number jumped up to 86%, and his target share went all the way up to a whopping 28%, which was higher than any other TE during that span… AND he was the TE2 in fantasy points/game as well.

Now that he’s the clear TE1 on that team, it’s pretty much a lock that he’s the #2 target for Kyler Murray at the very least now that they added Marvin Harrison Jr. I’m expecting the target distribution to be extremely top heavy between these two guys, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they each demanded above 25%.

Why? Because among qualifying TEs, no one was targeted at a higher rate per route than Trey McBride last season. No one besides George Kittle had more yards per route run than McBride. No one, including George Kittle and Sam LaPorta, had more 1st downs/route run than McBride. McBride is also the only TE who had zero drops last season. You can’t say that about any of the top TEs last year.

I don’t think any of the other receivers on this team will challenge these two, and I think Kyler Murray - with a normal off-season not having to recover from the ACL injury this summer - will be a much better QB this year. So with a better version of Kyler, a full-time role combined with the efficiency he showed last year, a new WR to take away opposing defense’s attention, the same OC he had last year - I think McBride is going to contend for that overall TE1 spot this year.