No Herbert, No Allen for LAC in Week 15 🪫

The conquest to your league’s fantasy championship starts tonight. Kind of an underwhelming matchup, but it won’t be when Easton Stick scores 22 points on your bench.

Kidding, of course. That won’t happen.

What’s in store:

• Justin Jefferson is trending towards playing in Week 15 😎. Let’s just hope he can start and finish the game this weekend.

• Keenan Allen is officially out for tonight’s game. This does not mean it’s time to dust off Quentin Johnston and start him.

• Two rookie RBs make Zach’s top-5 running backs for the week. See who’s ranked higher than the other between Bijan and Gibbs.

• Bijan Robinson is all the way back following a midseason crisis. See what’s driven his turnaround over the second half of the season so far.

• Vikings WR Justin Jefferson says he expects to play in Week 15 against Bengals despite chest injury

  • Fantastic news for Jefferson’s fantasy managers, especially this early into the week. With veteran Nick Mullens set to draw the start on Saturday against the Bengals after Josh Dobbs proved incapable of producing any type of offense over the past two weeks, Jefferson could have some solid upside and enter the WR1 conversation. Jefferson hasn’t played a full game since October, but fantasy managers can expect a very secure floor from him in a Vikings offense that has been desperately missing his presence. Jordan Addison will likely be relegated to a WR4 this week playing behind both Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson when it comes to target share, but fantasy managers should pay close attention to the way the target distribution shakes out with Mullens under center.

• RBs Rhamondre Stevenson (NE - ankle), Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS - hamstring) both miss practice Wednesday to open the week

  • Both running backs missed Week 14 (Rhamondre because of his injury, Robinson because of his bye) and both opened this week without practicing. Rhamondre Stevenson’s injury was originally believed to be a multi-week one when it happened, and the fact that he’s not practicing today suggests that it’ll be a second-straight week of Ezekiel Elliott drawing the start for New England. Meanwhile, Brian Robinson being unable to get a practice in following a bye week doesn’t bode well for his availability on Sunday, but fantasy mangers should stay tuned the rest of the week for any updates on his practice status. If Brian Robinson can’t play, Antonio Gibson would become a plus starter as a flex/RB3 option with RB2 upside against the Rams in Week 15.

• Chargers WR Keenan Allen officially ruled out for tonight’s game vs Raiders on TNF with heel injury

  • A back breaker at the bell for fantasy managers who were planning on playing Allen in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Allen will have an extra few days to heal up heading into Week 16, although it wouldn’t be too farfetched to think that Allen might be considering taking his time in his return with the Chargers having very little going for them in the final handful of games in 2023. In Allen’s absence, neither Quentin Johnston nor any of the other Chargers WRs have shown enough to warrant confidence in starting them tonight, so the Chargers offense should be avoided besides Austin Ekeler – who very well may catch 20 passes in the game. All jokes aside, the Chargers offense - which has looked really bad these past few weeks even with Keenan Allen and Justin Herbert in the lineup – has lost easily its two best players, and it figures to be another tough slog offensively for Easton Stick and co.

Running Back Matchups

• I like a lot of running backs this week, and it’s pretty much all the way through the top-25. CMC is obviously at 1, Kamara is at 2 thanks to his elite receiving volume - plus the Giants are allowing the third most rush yards and rush touchdowns in the NFL this season. I like him to get into the end zone this week and make it three straight games with a rushing touchdown on top of his five catches out of the backfield.

• It’s good matchups all the way across the board for the Rams, and Kyren Williams against the Commanders’ defense that’s allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs this season should get him back in the touchdown column. 25 touches a game is making him invincible - he came through against Baltimore in the tough matchup and now he’s rewarded with the Commanders nin Week 15 - LA is favored by a touchdown, and anyone with eyes could tell you that this could be a game that the Rams salt away in the ground game with a lead.

• I have the rookies Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs at 4 and 5, respectively, and they both have fantastic matchups - but I’m giving Bijan the slight edge this week given that he’s had the larger role of the two in the receiving game over the past few weeks. Gibbs is also in a nice spot, too, by the way – he’s only caught four passes these past three weeks, but he’s got a chance to turn that around against the Broncos - they’re allowing the sixth-most receptions to running backs this season.

• Rachaad White slides in at 6 by virtue of his volume and consistency alone. He’s had at least 99 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in each of his past eight games, and he hasn’t finished outside the top-18 at the position since Week 6. The matchup is solid - the Packers are allowing the eleventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season, and they’ve given up the seventh-most rush yards to running backs, as well. White has 286 yards over the past three games with at least 84 yards in each of them, so he should keep doing what we’ve seen these past few weeks - and that’s be a fantasy RB1. 

• Saquon, Mostert, Pollard, Etienne, and Jacobs round out my top-12 at running back, and that’s assuming Josh Jacobs plays this week. That’s obviously subject to change based on what we hear today, but I have him at 12 for the time being because that’s where I’d have him ranked if he played this week. Saquon is at nine and has a matchup that on paper might scare you a bit, but the Saints are actually allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs over the past four weeks. Pollard has 5 or more targets and four or more catches in three of his past four games, and he’s scored at least 16 PPR points in each of his past four games, so he’s looking like a low-end RB1 against a neutral Bills defense. Etienne has a tough matchup against the Ravens this week, and his utilization has come way down since the bye from where it was at before it - from Weeks 1-8, Etienne was playing on 81% of the snaps, taking 72% of the rush attempts, and running a route on 64% of dropbacks. Since Week 10: 65% of snaps, 59% of rush attempts, and 54% route participation. He’s been getting it done these past two weeks, but he’s not a top-5 play this week like he was earlier in the season - especially against the Ravens, who are allowing the fewest fantasy points to running backs this year.

After starting the season red hot and living up to expectations over the first five weeks of the year, Bijan Robinson hit a bump in the road in the second quarter of 2023 That bump in the road was a revocation of his role in the receiving game, which caused his production to dip dramatically into borderline unstartable territory from Weeks 6-9. We talked on the podcast about Bijan Robinson needing to get that receiving work back to push him back into that RB1 territory we knew he belonged in – and since Week 10, he’s done just that.

Through four games from Weeks 6-9, Bijan Robinson was running a route on just 58% of snaps with a target share of just 9% and a targets per route run of 14%. Those numbers were down even from what Robinson had seen earlier in the year, when he was running a route on 74% of snaps and garnering 21% target shares and targets per route run. It’s no surprise that the cutoff in the receiving game that started in Week 5 hurt his production – after averaging 17.6 PPR points per game as the overall RB10 in that span, his numbers dwindled to just 7.9 points per game as the overall RB38 from Weeks 6-9 – a number that was lower than teammate Tyler Allgeier, who averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game in that span.

In Week 10, though, the script flipped for Bijan - and he took control in the receiving game once again. The utilization and production from Weeks 10-14 is nearly identical to what Bijan was getting through the first four weeks of the season; in that five week span, Robinson has run a route on 73% of snaps, earned a 21% target share and posted a 22% targets per route run figure. The fantasy points per game has been even better over the past five weeks than it was in the first four games of the year; Robinson is the RB5 in fantasy points per game over the past five weeks with 18.9.

Chalk it up to the mysterious ways of Arthur Smith if you will, but after watching Bijan struggle through the second quarter of the season, it’s clear that the role he’s had these past few weeks is the role we want him in moving forward. He’s scored four touchdowns over the past three games after scoring just three touchdowns through his first nine games of the year.