No Keenan Allen for the Semifinals...

Totally random but also totally accurate stat that’s pretty hilarious to think about every once in a while: Christian McCaffrey averaged 44 fantasy points per game in two matchups against the Cardinals this season.

He scored seven touchdowns in those two games (lol).

What’s in store:

• The Dolphins are getting healthier – including Hill and Achane 🐬. Both were able to practice in a limited capacity on Thursday.

• Is Keenan Allen turning the lights out on the 2023 season? He was ruled out for Saturday night’s game yesterday, and he might not have any reason or incentive to come back.

• The WR matchups YOU need to know about for the playoff semifinals. D.J. Moore and Stefon Diggs headline the list of players to target.

• Deebo Samuel’s middle name is efficiency (or it should be, at least). He’s blowing the competition out of the water in this impressive metric.

• Dolphins playmakers Tyreek Hill and rookie De’Von Achane return to practice Thursday in limited capacity

  • While these reports obviously aren’t guarantees that the two offensive stars will take the field against the Cowboys this weekend, they’re definitely encouraging first steps towards activation for Sunday. Tyreek Hill missed the first round of the fantasy playoffs with the ankle injury that he picked up in Week 14 against the Titans, a presence that was sorely missed in fantasy lineups but not so much in real life. If Tyreek Hill plays, Jaylen Waddle would revert back to his mid-low WR2 form moving forward. And as always, if Tyreek Hill plays, he would be an absolute must-start even in a tough matchup against the Cowboys defense. As far as De’Von Achane goes, he should be started in all lineups if he plays against Dallas, who just allowed 266 yards on the ground last week to the Bills. If Achane doesn’t go, Raheem Mostert would be locked in as a surefire RB1 with upside.

• Eagles WR Devonta Smith pops up on injury report Thursday, misses practice with knee ailment

  • No reason yet to sound the alarm on Smith’s absence from practice, but certainly also not something to take lightly considering the fact that rest days are usually granted on Wednesdays and not Thursdays. Smith has appeared on the injury report a few times prior to this instance over the course of the season and has yet to miss a game, so fantasy managers can go into their Friday without urgent concern about Smith’s status until the next practice report is made available. Smith missing practice today would, however, be grounds to start thinking about a backup plan. The Eagles have one of the best positional matchups in the league this week at wide receiver, and Smith missing the first of two games against the Giants in the next three weeks would be very disappointing for fantasy managers who have been riding the pseudo-hot streak he’s been on since the bye (WR13 in PPR points per game).

• Chargers WR Keenan Allen officially ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Bills with heel injury

  • Chances are that Keenan Allen would normally play through this injury if the Chargers had Justin Herbert and a chance at the playoffs, but neither of those two conditions have been met with this team that has officially thrown in the towel on the 2023 season. Allen’s absence puts his fantasy managers in a bind ahead of the fantasy playoff semifinals, as a 1:1 replacement with Josh Palmer off the waiver wire would be much more promising if it were Herbert at quarterback and not Easton Stick. While it’s just speculation at this point, there’s certainly the chance that we may have seen the last of Keenan Allen this season with the Chargers’ season effectively lost. In the meantime, Josh Palmer and rookie Quentin Johnston will continue to serve as low-ceiling, volume-based options in a watered down Chargers offensive attack. Both should be last resort flex/WR3 plays in Week 16 against the Bills with limited upside.

Stefon Diggs vs LAC

Diggs has had all kinds of trouble coming through in fantasy land as of late, finishing outside the top-45 in four of his past five games during a cold streak that has seen him average just 9.5 points per game. Part of that might have to do with the matchups he’s dealt with in that span - games against the Cowboys, Jets, and Chiefs have had odd game scripts or been tough matchups overall. But if you want to be encouraged by anything heading into what is a fantastic matchup on paper for Diggs, you’d have to look at his target share during this cold streak: Diggs has earned a 28% target share over his past five games, and he now gets the Chargers who are allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers that line up on the right perimeter. It’s been tough to swallow the lackluster performances from Diggs over the past few weeks, but the Chargers have given up on the season - if the Raiders can hang 63 on them, the Bills can have a solid game themselves.

D.J. Moore vs ARZ

One of my favorite matchups of the week. Moore has been on fire with Justin Fields under center since the third-year quarterback returned from injury in Week 11 - 35% target share and 47% air yards share has translated to Moore averaging 20 PPR points per game over his last four, including three top-10 finishes and two top-6. Moore’s lone quiet performance last week came against the Browns in a very tough matchup, but the Cardinals qualify as a very favorable one for the second round of the fantasy playoffs. Arizona has been abysmal against receivers on the left side, which D.J. Moore is; they’re allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers on the left side this season, and the ninth-most over the past four weeks. The connection between Moore and Justin Fields is very real, and you can start Moore comfortably as a WR1 in what could have the potential to be a high scoring game between two less than lockdown defenses.

Garrett Wilson vs WAS

Garrett Wilson’s production, as we know, hinges on whether or not the other Wilson (Zach) takes the field and stays on the field. As of right now, Zach Wilson is uncertain to play in Week 16 - but the matchup for Garrett Wilson couldn’t be better this week against the Commanders. Washington has allowed the most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers on the season and the third most points to wide receivers that line up specifically on the left side, and Garrett Wilson has been the definition of a target hog when Zach Wilson is under center. In four games where Zach Wilson has played 100% of the snaps since the bye (Weeks 8-10, Week 14), Wilson is averaging 13 targets, 8 receptions, and 95 receiving yards per game. If Zach Wilson doesn’t play, then Wilson will have to be moved down the rankings a bit – but as of right now, he’s a solid WR2 start in an excellent Week 16 matchup.

Since returning from their bye (and their three-game losing streak from Weeks 6 to 8), the 49ers offense has been the model of efficiency in the NFL up to this point. You’ve probably seen the stat floating around recently on social media about San Francisco calling the fewest passing plays in the league but ranking second in the NFL in passing yards, and there’s no question about who’s been the driving factor in making that statistic a reality. Since returning from the bye, Deebo Samuel has been on an absolute tear - and he’s been getting even better every week.

Deebo Samuel’s +10.7 fantasy points over expectation is easily the largest margin between expected and actual fantasy points scored among wide receivers to run 150+ routes in that six-game span, and he ranks just second in fantasy points per game in that time period behind only Ceedee Lamb. Those ridiculous numbers stem from extreme efficiency on a per route basis, with Samuel leading all pass catchers in that same time frame with 0.89 fantasy points per route run; the next highest player, again Ceedee Lamb, averages 0.65 fantasy points per route run.

And today on not surprising at all: Deebo also leads all wide receivers since Week 10 in scrimmage touchdowns with 9 (the next highest scorer, Mike Evans, has six in that same span). He’s also doing this with three of his other teammates scoring 14 touchdowns combined (CMC has seven, Aiyuk has four, and Kittle has three) since the bye. Deebo has pushed fantasy teams into the playoffs and is on track to be a candidate for the fantasy playoffs MVP.