No Pickens or Kamara this week 🫥

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• Steelers rule out WR George Pickens (hamstring) for Week 16 vs Ravens; Saints RB Alvin Kamara (groin) also unlikely to play

  • With Pickens out, it’s going to be difficult to trust Russell Wilson as a streamer this week after two straight performances under 160 passing yards sans-Pickens. TE Pat Freiermuth gets a slight bump once again and will hang around the low-TE1 rankings, and fantasy managers shouldn’t count on any of the other Pittsburgh pass catchers in lineups to replace Pickens. In addition to the star receiver being out, fantasy managers will be without the services of RB Alvin Kamara for the first time this season. Kamara suffered a groin injury making a one-handed touchdown catch against the Commanders last week, and after missing practice this week and undergoing further testing, he’s officially been ruled out for Monday night against the Packers. It’s not surprising given that the Saints season is effectively lost and clears the way for Kendre Miller to step into a full time role for the first time this year. He’ll be a solid RB2 start and should be in line for plenty of volume given how racked with attrition the Saints’ offense is at this point in the year. There is the threat of Miller being scripted out of this game considering how injured the Saints are going into Lambeau, but Miller has looked good on his work this season and appears to genuinely have a clean slate with interim HC Darren Rizzi. The Saints offense also took a noticeable step forward with Spencer Rattler under center last week, and he’s set to start in Week 16, as well.

• 49ers RB Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) expected to miss Sunday’s game vs Dolphins in Week 16

  • Guerendo popped up on the injury report early this week as a DNP with a hamstring injury, much to the chagrin of fantasy managers hoping to ride his potential workhorse role into the championship round. Those hopes were officially snuffed out on Thursday afternoon, however, as reports emerged that Guerendo is expected to miss Week 16. The matchup is a strong one for the 49ers RB room against the Dolphins, but despite that and a newfound expanded role for Patrick Taylor, he’ll profile as more of an RB3 play this week than the solid RB2 that Guerendo would have been. RBs Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Izzy Abanikanda could be the instant deep waiver additions after Taylor, though it would probably take an injury to Taylor (which can’t be ruled out at this point) for either of them to have any significant value in lineups. Needless to say, Taylor would be more of a last resort than anything in fantasy lineups this week given the unknown workload he’ll receive and the fact that he’s hardly played this year.

• Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) expected to play in Week 16; WR Hollywood Brown set to make season debut

  • First things first: the Hollywood Brown news likely wouldn’t be significant if it weren’t for Patrick Mahomes being on track to play this weekend against the Texans. Despite reports calling Mahomes ‘week-to-week’ earlier this week, it appears as though the injury isn’t that serious and that Mahomes won’t have to miss any time as a result. That’s great news for all of Kansas City’s weapons, including WRs DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, and TE Travis Kelce. Patrick Mahomes was fully removed from the injury report ahead of this weekend’s game, meaning there should be no limitations for him and he’ll profile as the solid QB2 start he’s been all year. On the other side of the coin, Hollywood Brown is set to take his first snaps with the Chiefs this year after missing the first 15 games of the season with a shoulder injury. The clips from training camp were extremely promising with reports indicating that Brown and Mahomes were developing a solid connection – however, fantasy managers would have to be pretty desperate to consider throwing Hollywood into the fire in the playoff semifinals in his first game of the year. He’s a desperate flex play this week with no precedent for his potential role or how he’ll fit into the Chiefs’ gameplan, but a strong showing could put him on the radar in fantasy championships next week.

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Jakobi Meyers vs JAX

• Alright, let’s try this one more time… Jakobi Meyers has a fantastic matchup for the third week in a row. He couldn’t come through the way we wanted him to against the Bucs or the Falcons, but that’s been largely because he’s had to deal with Desmond Ridder under center in those games. There’s a chance Aidan O’Connell is back this week, but regardless of who starts, Meyers can be in lineups as a WR3 at worst with WR2 upside.

• The Jaguars are top-5 in receiving yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points allowed per game this season, and allow big plays (both 20+ and 40+ yards) at the highest rate in the league. The game should be relatively competitive, too, since the Jaguars themselves are dealing with Mac Jones at quarterback. We’ll see if he can find the upside he’s been missing as of late since Minshew has left the lineup.

Bears WRs vs DET

• Back to the well again with Moore and Odunze, who despite being part of the Bears’ weekly crash out on offense have both managed to put up at least two top-10 finishes over the past four games. We’ve talked it to death, but it bears mentioning again – Allen and Moore are both averaging at least 28% target share since Waldron was fired, with Odunze pulling up the rear at a still respectable 21%. 

• Odunze hasn’t been startable despite the generally respectable role he has in Chicago, but Moore and Allen can take advantage of a squishy (again) pass defense of the Lions: Detroit is allowing the 3rd-most receptions and receiving yards of any team this season, as well as the sixth-most fantasy points per game. Moore and Allen are both fringe WR2 starts, while Odunze is, again, a low WR3 play at best.

Mike Evans vs DAL

• My very bold prediction of the week: Mike Evans gets the 251 yards receiving he needs to break 1000 on the season on Sunday night against the Cowboys. Since rejoining the Bucs in Week 12, Evans has averaged a 29% target share, 46% air yards share, and 21.4 PPR points per game. Jalen McMillan has come on a bit as of late, but Evans has completely bodied Cade Otton out of the target distribution and is the clear number 1 target for Mayfield.

• The matchup for Evans against the Cowboys is elite, with Dallas allowing the 6th-most receiving yards, the 9th-most receptions, and the 2nd-most receptions of 40+ yards this season. That amounts to the 4th-most fantasy points allowed over the last four weeks, and if you can believe it: the Bucs-Cowboys game has the highest total of the week at 48.5. Evans is my overall WR5 this week.