Preseason Week 1 Players to Watch 🔎

Six game slate of NFL football on tonight. The first round of appetizers to RedZone Sundays is here.

What’s in store:

• WHO has been featured recently as the Eagles feature back? 🤯 Philly is utilizing one RB heavily, and it’s not who you’d expect!

• Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields for fantasy in 2023? Faraz gives one QB the edge over the other, but it’s not by much…

• Sleeping on these sleepers? Quit sleeping! Zach opens our eyes to two players flying under the radar in drafts.

• Prepare for tonight’s 6-game slate with Tyler’s players to watch! Preseason isn’t played for nothing – don’t get caught sleeping!

• Kenneth Gainwell featured in Eagles offense as “feature back”

  • At least according to Eagles beat reporter Shamus Clancy with the Philly Voice, he is. Clancy also went on to project Rashaad Penny to be at the bottom of the volume share, which should raise some eyebrows as we get closer to the start of the regular season. Gainwell was consistently the 2-minute back last year for the Eagles, a role that D’Andre Swift projects to take over in 2023. But so far in camp, the word is that Gainwell has “undoubtedly had a stronger camp” than Rashaad Penny. It’s a situation to keep a close eye on, especially if the backfield becomes less of a 1-2 and more of a traditional committee. Gross.

• TE George Kittle dealing with adductor strain, expected to miss just a week

  • Kittle has dealt with his fair share of injuries throughout his career, but this one appears to be relatively minor and is expected to sideline him just a week. He likely would have been on the sideline anyway this weekend, but Kittle should not be in jeopardy of missing any time during the regular season as a result of this tweak. Fantasy managers can go about their draft prep without thinking twice about Kittle.

• Garrett Wilson returns to practice, does “more than expected”

  • Wilson appears to be ahead of schedule in his recovery, giving more optimism that he’ll be back – and all the way back – by Week 1. The second-year receiver reportedly took part in 11 on 11 drills and had no trouble cutting according to Jets beat reporter Rich Cimini. The low-ankle sprain Wilson suffered early in camp has been a topic of interest to NFL and fantasy football fans alike, and it’s good news to hear that Wilson has returned to practice and doesn’t seem to be significantly limited by it with weeks to go. He should be on track to start Week 1 completely healthy, and the concern with him is low at this point in time and diminishing as time goes on.

• Lamar Jackson QB4, 34.9 (3-4 Turn)

  • Lamar Jackson is going to go HAM this year. He's healthy, and he has a new OC. Why is that good? While I think Greg Roman was the perfect first offensive coordinator for Lamar Jackson, he's outgrown him. Bringing in Todd Monken is the perfect thing to happen to Lamar, because he can now show his skills in the pass game.

  • Monken has always been a pass-first guy, but I do think this becomes a more balanced offense rather than a pass-first one. The rushing and designed runs will still be there for Lamar, but we'll see more scrambles because there will be more drop backs. And now he has weapons, too! Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, OBJ, Isaiah Likely... that's a damn good supporting cast.

  • Lamar has never thrown for more than 3200 yards in a season; if he can now supplement a 1000 yard rushing season with 4000 yards passing? We're looking a fantasy monster. And yes, I do believe he's capable of passing for 4000 yards. If you don't think he's capable, you're stuck in a 4-year old narrative and haven't been paying attention to what he's capable of.

  • He's not Justin Fields when it comes to the passing game. Remember he led the league with 36 passing TDs a few seasons ago. Lamar is in for a big year, and he's a big target of mine this season.

• Justin Fields - QB5, 49.4 (4-5 Turn)

  • Fields finished as the QB5 in fantasy points/game last year... can you name his WRs? Darnell Mooney got hurt early in the year, and he didn't have Chase Claypool either. All he had was Cole Kmet... how was he set up for success? He still finished as the QB5.

  • And now, he has a legit NFL WR1 in DJ Moore, Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney are both healthy, and he's going into Year 2 of his system. He only threw for 2242 yards last year, and I do think he has a lot to work on in the pass game - he's not good there yet. But I do think DJ Moore and the weapons he has now will help him get there this season, similarly to what the new weapons did for Jalen Hurts.

  • Is he going to get to Hurts level this year? I'd say probably not, because I do think there's more development needed, but he can be way better than where he was last year, resulting in a monster fantasy season.

  • Fields averaged 76.2 rushing yards/game, which is absolutely bananas; if he can up his passing game to maybe 3000 yards this season, plus 1000 yards, plus some TDs on the ground, and throw for 20+ TDs, we're looking another Top-5 season, and potentially even higher.

  • He has overall fantasy QB1 upside, and should be targeted at his ADP.

• Edge: Lamar Jackson ✅, with Fields just behind him

• Cole Kmet - TE17, 149.5 (13th Round)

  • When Justin Fields took the next step to fantasy dominance halfway through last year, just one Bears pass catcher went with him for the ride – Cole Kmet. When Justin Fields was supplementing his rushing production with a dash of passing, the ball was being thrown overwhelmingly to Kmet.

  • From Week 9 through the end of the year last year, Cole Kmet was the overall TE4 in fantasy points scored, racked up the sixth most targets among TEs that saw 60+% of snaps in that span, and paced all Bears pass catchers – including RBs, WRs, and TEs – in targets with 49… 21 more than the next guy on the list, Chase Claypool! Kmet also scored the 2nd most touchdowns among those TEs in that span, as well.

• Fields clearly had a favorite target in Kmet, and even with the addition of D.J. Moore, the looks should continue to come Kmet’s way – his super lucrative 4-year, $50M extension tells me that the Bears plan to feature Kmet in the offense plenty. Similar usage to last year on what figures to be a better offense in 2023 should help Kmet stay on top of most of the fantasy TE landscape and squarely in the TE1 conversation this year.

• Juju Smith-Schuster - WR54, 115.4 (10th Round)

  • Not a single receiver in New England scares me about the type of target share they could earn against Juju in 2023. Not a single one! None of the Patriots wide receivers even sniffed Jakobi Meyers’ 21.3% target share in 2022, with the next closest true WR being Devante Parker with just 11%. Jakobi Meyers is gone, but the rest of the receivers are still there! The competition for Juju is going to be minimal, and that means that he’ll be able to produce even in Bill O’Brien’s TE first offense.

  • Now, there’s nothing spectacular about Juju’s fantasy production as of late – he finished outside of the Top-30 receivers in total points and points per game last year on a Patrick Mahomes-led offense. But that sour taste that he left in people’s mouths last year is currently driving his price WAYYY down in drafts, to the point where he’s going later than Tyler Boyd. If Jakobi Meyers can amass over 90 targets on an offense without an offensive coordinator, I’m willing to bet better days are ahead for Juju and that he can do the same.

  • I mean, the Patriots also brought Juju in at the exact price point of Jakobi Meyers, which tells me they plan to utilize him plenty in the offense and that they actually anticipate him being MORE productive than Meyers – who was quietly a high-end WR3 in 2022 with the Patriots. I’m not calling my shot on Juju finishing inside the Top-24, but he can be really nice surprise for you on your team as a quality WR3.

August 11th (Preseason Week 1)

Sam LaPorta (TE- Detroit Lions) - vs NYG, 7:00 PM

• LaPorta has been tearing up camp since he stepped foot in Detroit, seeing "as many reps as possible" throughout the offseason and working his way up to consistently receiving first-team reps.

• His rise to the spot as TE1 in Detroit, the draft capital invested in him (2nd round, 34th overall), and the prior production of T.J. Hockenson before the trade to Minnesota all align for a potentially significant role for LaPorta, even as a rookie.

• It'll be very interesting to see how much work (and when) LaPorta sees action in the preseason opener, and a strong preseason could see his price skyrocket come draft day if he shows the promise that has been spoken of him all offseason.

Bijan Robinson (RB - Atlanta Falcons) - vs MIA, 7:00 PM

• Bijan has been listed as the RB3 on Atlanta's opening preseason depth chart behind Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allegeier, which came as a surprise to many, especially after being taken with the 8th overall pick in the 2023 Draft.

• That may simply be Head Coach Arthur Smith making the rookie 'earn his spot' as the lead back without directly giving him the starting reigns, but at the very least, the decision to label him the RB3 will give us the purest look at Bijan in the preseason.

• Him being listed as the third-string RB means one of two things:

  • 1) If he sees notable preseason action, he truly has to earn the lead duties and likely won't get the workhorse role we all anticipated in Week 1.

  • 2) If he sees very limited preseason action (especially relative to Patterson/Allegeier), he's almost certainly walking into a 300+ touch workload as a rookie.

Antonio Gibson (RB - Washington Commanders) - vs CLE, 7:30 PM

• It's not confirmed, but it's anticipated that Antonio Gibson sees action in Washington's preseason opener against Cleveland, especially after the heavy usage of both Gibson and Brian Robinson in the 2022 preseason.

• The script is now flipped for those two entering the 2023 preseason with Brian Robinson slotted in as the starter and Gibson slotted in as the RB2, also projecting as the starting kick returner for the Commanders.

• It was Gibson's major preseason struggles on the ground last year (6 carries, 5 yards, 1 fumble lost) that ultimately paved the way for Brian Robinson to take over as the starter upon his return early in 2022. A strong preseason this year would likely command a substantial workload for Gibson, which could prove very promising within a favorable Eric Bieniemy offense.

• I am very much watching for Gibson's role within the Bieniemy offense that, if he sees the role we are anticipating (similar to that of Jerick McKinnon in recent years in Kansas City), he could be a sneaky option for fantasy.

Jaguars RB Travis Etienne is being consistently drafted inside the top-15 at the running back position on Underdog, while Texans RB Dameon Pierce is being drafted two full rounds later in the sixth round as the overall RB22 off the board. Etienne is the more popular pick – and higher ranked across almost every board – heading into 2023, but a closer look at their statistics reveals that the discrepancy int heir prices may not be warranted, and could come down simply to name value.

Despite playing on an objectively worse offense than Etienne (the Texans ranked 31st in pts/drive, while the Jaguars ranked 11th), Dameon Pierce managed to register higher missed tackles forced/attempt than Etienne (0.22 : 0.19), higher yards after contact per attempt (3.21 : 2.90), and most importantly, higher fantasy points per game (13.0 : 12.2).

Pierce registered rushing attempt shares AND team target shares higher than Etienne as well, and looks to continue to be the No. 1 back at least in the ground game for Houston. Meanwhile, the Jags coaching staff has been increasingly complimentary of Travis Etienne’s primary competition, Tank Bigsby, especially in the receiving game. After putting up just a 7.2% target share in the Jags offense in 2022 while running the 13th most routes in the league among 154 RBs, can that number realistically be projected to go up with Bigsby likely challenging for receiving work and the addition of Calvin Ridley?

If anything, that number could dip to a career low for Etienne, which would level the playing field between Etienne and Pierce for 2023. Do what you will with this information – but that 2 round ADP discrepancy just doesn’t seem right…