We’re officially one week into the preseason and I’m already tired of hearing about my favorite players being injured or dealing with nagging injuries. Can the guardian caps prevent injuries of all kinds, please?

What’s in store:

• Hollywood Brown gets shut down early in PreSZN Week 1. Good luck pronouncing the full name of his injury – but it’s not looking as bad as it was originally feared to be.

• Everyone’s favorite rookie WR (probably) goes down in practice. It’s an ankle injury for the Giants’ first-round pick.

• You guessed it: it’s another injury headline. Jahmyr Gibbs suffered a hamstring injury in practice yesterday.

• EVERYTHING you need to know about what went down this past weekend. Spoiler alert – you want a piece of the Broncos run game.

• Chiefs WR Hollywood Brown suffers sternoclavicular joint dislocation in Week 1 of the preseason, is back with team

  • While it sounds like the former Cardinal avoided the worst case scenario with his injury, it still remains up in the air just how long we can expect him to miss as we approach the beginning of the season. Also working against Brown’s odds of starting in Week 1 is the fact that the Chiefs are slated to kick off 2024 on Thursday night against the Ravens, further constricting an already shrinking timeframe for the wide receiver to recover. The good news is that HC Andy Reid indicated Brown does not need surgery and is already back with the team, which would suggest that Brown’s recovery could be trending towards the shorter range of outcomes than longer. Should Brown miss any time, rookie WRs Xavier Worthy (who was running with the 1s in this past weekend’s action) and Rashee Rice would figure to pick up very valuable slack caused by Hollywood’s absence. The pendulum has swung every which way this offseason inside the Chiefs’ WR room as to which player would be Mahomes’ WR1, and this shakeup is no exception. The bottom line, though, seems to be that Brown will miss very little (if any) time to open 2024, and his fantasy prospects remain very much intact barring any setbacks in the coming weeks.

• Giants rookie WR Malik Nabers suffers apparent minor ankle sprain, could miss some time leading into 2024

  • We’re still a ways out from meaningful fantasy football action, but any injury to one of the most quickly-ascending rookies bears acknowledgement just weeks away from the regular season. Nabers is believed to have suffered a minor ankle sprain during practice after a teammate stepped on his foot, causing him to come up lame and appear on the injury report. Based on the current temperature of the Giants’ coverage of his injury, it doesn’t sound like it’s expected to have any kind of impact, short or long, on his regular season – but there’s certainly the possibility that the team shuts him down for the upcoming Week 2 preseason game, and potentially the rest of the way out of precaution. Nabers is expected to dominate the target share in New York from day one after showing out in training camp, especially given the lack of experienced competition around him. His ADP has ballooned all the way up to the WR17 on Underdog thanks to plenty of hype coming out of camp, but his rise may be tempered by reports of a potential ankle injury limiting his ability to build momentum heading into Week 1. Fantasy managers can continue to draft Nabers as usual unless more unexpected trouble arises.

• Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs exits practice Monday with hamstring injury, severity unclear heading into preseason Week 2

  • The report came late last night that Gibbs was unable to finish practice Monday as a result of a leg injury, later identified as a hamstring strain. As of the writing of this newsletter, the extent of the injury remains undetermined – much to the chagrin of fantasy managers who have been planning to draft or have been drafting him at the 1-2 turn as fantasy season ramps up into full gear. At any rate, it’s a concerning development for the current RB4 on Underdog considering that hamstring injuries have a tendency to linger and affect production. The good news – the Lions will likely give Gibbs as much time as he needs to get right ahead of the regular season. With more than three weeks left to go, Gibbs could take the rest of the preseason off in preparation for Week 1 and potentially miss no time. However, we’ll have a better idea in the coming days (and hopefully hours) about what to expect heading into 2024 for Gibbs. Should Gibbs miss any time, David Montgomery would be the first, second, and third beneficiary as part of an offense that features arguably the league’s top offensive line and a massive workload shifted in his favor. Stay tuned for updates on Gibbs’ injury in the near future.

• Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs were the Texans’ two WRs in – you guessed it – their 2-WR sets. Tank Dell was on the field for 3-WR sets, but it was Diggs who was in the slot for 75% of those first-team plays. Houston ran 3-WR sets 60% of the time last year, but we’d have to assume that goes up this year.

• Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler both rotated in with the first team, and Ekeler isn’t just playing a receiving role; Ekeler even shared work with Robinson near the goal line. It’ll be tough to trust either back if we continue to see a relatively even split in snaps.

• Jahan Dotson looks like the Washington’s new slot receiver. WRs who ran out of the slot in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense in Arizona have been shown to be extremely productive… and when the Commanders were in 2-WR sets, he shifted to the outside. He’s a must-draft at his price.

Get the full scoop on Jayden Daniels and the rest of the Commanders offense from Logan Paulsen on the Upper Hand Fantasy Podcast!

• Not only does Cole Kmet have to fight off three top-tier WRs, but it’s looking like he’ll have to share work with Gerald Everett, too. There were plenty of 2-TE sets, but neither had near-full route participation with starters. Another reason to not draft Kmet this season.

• New Bears OC Shane Waldron’s usage of 12-personnel – despite having three capable receivers – looked very similar to what he did with the Seahawks last year, and it was Rome Odunze as the odd-man out in Week 1. Keenan Allen ran a route on 100% of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks this weekend, while Odunze was at 50%.

• Despite not running a near-full route participation and splitting routes run with Michael Mayer, Brock Bowers lined up as an inline TE, in the slot, and out wide with the first-team. It looks like they’re putting a lot on the rookie in his first year, and it could pay off for fantasy.

• There wasn’t much of a split in the Raiders backfield, as Zamir White seems to be the guy. Alexander Mattison played behind him, but he didn’t get a touch with the first team.

• Marshawn Lloyd suffered a hamstring injury, which seems to be a re-aggravation of a previous hamstring injury. Not great, and it doesn’t give him enough of a chance to be the clear RB2 in Green Bay… at least early in the season.

• Keon Coleman was the only Bills WR to run a route on every Josh Allen dropback, but it was only a sample size of 5. Either way, this is a good sign that he will be a starter or close to it in Week 1. He was not targeted, but Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid all had one. Dalton Kincaid ran a route on 4 of 5 Allen dropbacks.

• RBs who seemingly solidified RB2 role:

  • Tyrone Tracy

  • Bucky Irving

  • Braelon Allen

  • Dameon Pierce

• Hollywood Brown suffered an sternoclavicular joint dislocation, and could miss a week or two early in the season. We shouldn’t be worried about any lingering effects once he’s back. It’s worth noting that he got hurt after he caught Mahomes’ first throw. By the way, Xavier Worthy is already playing with the starters.

• The Titans backfield was nothing short of a crapshoot, with both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears rotating without establishing themselves in any specific role. Pollard did start the game, though, and received 6 opportunities to Spears’ 4 with the first team.

• Despite the Chargers resting Ladd McConkey and Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston still couldn’t get a snap with the starters. Not great.

• Javonte Williams was the clear lead back for the Broncos, getting 6 opportunities on 75% of snaps out of 12 total snaps for the first-team offense. Draft Javonte Williams at his ridiculously low ADP. Top-12 upside.

• Vikings offense looked sharp with both Sam Darnold running the first team and JJ McCarthy coming in afterwards. I might not be so worried about Justin Jefferson, after all.

2023 was once again textbook Terry McLaurin, with the Commanders’ veteran pass catcher rewinding what has essentially been the same fantasy season for the fourth time over since 2020. McLaurin’s 132-79-1002-4 line in 2023 was comically close to his four-year average production of 129-80-1091-4.5 since 2020 – relatively impressive numbers for a wide receiver to consistently post given backup quarterback play at best over the length of that span. However, much like Garrett Wilson in 2023, McLaurin was getting his cardio in for most of the season, posting a desaturated 1.64 yards per route run (50th among qualifying receivers) while running the second-most routes in the NFL (Jahan Dotson was right behind him at third).

With Eric Bienemy out the door and Sam Howell traded after just two seasons with the team, McLaurin’s total routes run are likely to regress more towards the mean in 2024 – especially with new OC Kliff Kingsbury and a rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels commanding (😉) the offense. Bienemy’s 2023 offense passed the ball at nearly a 70% clip despite Howell ranking outside PFF’s top-50 quarterbacks in passing grade. Kingsbury has historically called an air raid offense, but play calling was relatively balanced in his four years with Kyler Murray in Arizona. However, the hope is that whatever opportunity McLaurin loses in terms of target quantity will be made up for with an increase in target quality.

It’ll take Daniels being the first Washington quarterback to pan out since RGIII, but if the Heisman winning quarterback can mesh well with McLaurin (and there’s a good chance of that), McLaurin could finally break through the ceiling capping his fantasy production. We do hope for this every year with McLaurin, but Daniels was PFF’s highest-graded quarterback on deep passes last season (22:0 TD:INT ratio on such passes), while McLaurin profiles as one of the NFL’s premier deep threats according to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception.