Puka Nacua goes down, Kupp stock 🆙

Does anyone else feel like a lot of people’s fantasy teams just had terrible weeks overall? You know it’s bad when Derek Carr is one of the top fantasy scorers on the week.

What’s in store:

• Puka Nacua exits vs Lions, doesn’t return. 😭 It looks like a knee injury for the second-year WR.

• Jake Ferguson also leaves game vs Browns with a knee injury. No ACL damage was revealed in initial tests, thankfully.

• What will the Packers do with Jordan Love out for a few weeks? Certainly hoping they don’t roll with Malik Willis for the duration of Love’s recovery.

• Faraz’s top takeaways from Week 1’s action. You won’t want to miss Faraz’s complete review of yesterday’s developments…

• Rams WR Puka Nacua exits Sunday Night Football matchup vs. Lions with knee injury, doesn’t return

  • Nacua managed to reel in four catches for 35 yards and carried the ball once for seven yards before leaving the game, which at least softened the blow for fantasy managers who were counting on him to come through in Sunday’s primetime thriller. He was being utilized healthily, if not heavily, prior to his exit just before halftime, but as of the writing of this newsletter, specifics of the exact injury he sustained are not available. Knee injuries tend to be finicky, and there were reports that Nacua was dealing with a knee injury coming into the season during training camp. The hope is that Nacua was able to avoid the worst-case scenario (which would obviously be an ACL tear), but the fact that he had to be carted off the field suggests that we could be looking at some missed time for the second-year WR. In relief of Nacua, 2021 Cooper Kupp showed his face last night with 14 receptions on 21 targets of his own for 110 yards and a touchdown. As long as Nacua is out, Kupp will profile as a bona-fide WR1, while DeMarcus Robinson will likely be the preferred waiver wire pickup in his absence. TE Colby Parkinson also brings intrigue, but given Stafford’s rapport with Kupp, the expectation should be that the Rams have a very top-heavy distribution over the course of Nacua’s recovery.

• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson exits game vs Browns with knee injury, doesn’t return; no ACL damage revealed by initial tests

  • The second target in Dallas’ offense last season, Ferguson had a quiet outing of his own against a stifling Browns defense before landing awkwardly on his leg while making his third catch of the day. While he wasn’t carted off, he did require help to the sideline and into the locker room. Initial tests have since revealed that the third-year TE didn’t suffer any damage to his ACL, but further testing needs to be completed to understand the full extent of the injury. Prior to leaving, Ferguson had been out-targeted by teammate Brandin Cooks, who caught the Cowboys lone touchdown pass of the day, and Ceedee Lamb. While it’s tough to project a timeline without an official injury designation just yet, it would be fair to anticipate an absence of at least a week or two for Ferguson moving forward. With a full season of football ahead, the Cowboys will likely be in no rush to bring Ferguson back and risk losing him for a further extended timeframe. In the meantime, Brandin Cooks will likely stand to benefit the most as far as utilization is concerned. TE Luke Schoonmaker played the same number of snaps as third-stringer Brevyn Spann-Ford in this game, so no Cowboys tight ends should be added in any potential absence from Ferguson.

• Packers QB Jordan Love suffers sprained MCL in loss to Eagles last Friday night, will miss a few weeks

  • Adding insult to injury was the fact that the Packers were making a last-ditch effort to win a game that was largely out of reach when the injury occurred. With Love’s timeline confirmed to be between 2-6 weeks depending on his rate of recovery, fantasy managers can breathe a small sigh of relief that he’ll be back on the field relatively soon. However, the Packers offense is unlikely to be anywhere near as dynamic with Love away from the controls. Green bay took a flier on former Titans backup QB Malik Willis, but Willis has yet to throw for 100 yards in a game in his NFL career and hasn’t played a snap since Week 8 of last season. We’ll see if the Packers decide to look for an interim starter externally in the coming days, but it’ll be incredibly difficult to recommend starting any Green Bay pass catchers should Willis ultimately draw the start in Week 2 against the Colts. Keep a close eye on the Packers transactions this week as they brace for the next few weeks without Love, but fantasy managers should be able to hold Love on their IR spots in the meantime.

• DeVonta Smith moved into the slot

  • Expect a lot more consistency out of Smith this year with the move. He caught 7 of 8 targets for 84 yards, and should be a PPR magnet as we’ve this be a staple of Kellen Moore’s offense through multiple teams. Easier coverage and layup routes for Smith all season long.

• Zack Moss leads the Bengals backfield

  • Moss had control of the situations that matter, with 65% of snaps while running more routes, getting all of the 2-minute work, most of the 3rd down work, and the lone goal line snap. He can move into low-end RB2 range once Bengals bounce back. Chase is not a 1b - he’s their RB2 and can be dropped in shallow leagues.

• Cardinals still sorting out target distribution

  • Marvin Harrison Jr had a rough start with 1 catch for 4 yards on 3 targets. If you chose to draft him early, you had to have expected some rookie pains. He ran a route on 95% of Kyler Murray’s dropbacks, so there’s hope. Trey McBride didn’t have the production, but led with 29% target share, the same amount he had during his run late last season. Greg Dortch’s 26% target share makes him worth rostering in PPR leagues.

• Bills still sorting out target distribution

  • Keon Coleman ran the most routes of any Bills receiver and led the team with 5 targets, with a decent 21.7% target share. Mack Hollins got a lot of run, and Curtis Samuel barely played with only 9 routes total. I’m assuming Samuel was still limited to the turf toe injury. Khalil Shakir got the TD, but had 3 targets and only ran a route on 70% of dropbacks, so he’ll need a bump in playing time to be a consistent factor. Kincaid’s 83% route participation is a good sign - don’t give up on him.

• Tank Bigsby carving out role in Jaguars backfield

  • Bigsby led the Jaguars in rushing, with both him and Travis Etienne getting 12 carries each. Etienne is still getting the money touches at the goal line and is the primary receiving back with a very healthy 68% route participation. But Bigsby looked good, and we could continue to see a bit of a split on early downs.

• Brian Thomas Jr shows promise in tough coverage

  • BTJ was shadowed by Jalen Ramsey and didn’t shy away. He proved he belongs after beating him for a long pass PI that would’ve been a TD, and then catching a red zone TD later in the game in his coverage. 4/47/1 isn’t breaking the stat sheet, but it’s a very encouraging sign of what’s to come.

• De’Von Achane’s usage can break fantasy

  • We already know Achane is a great talent and can be efficient, but his 19% target share in this game matched Christian McCaffrey last season. There was talk about him getting more work in the receiving game, so this usage matches the rumblings. He also got 100% of goal line snaps in this game. After a record-setting 7.9 YPC last season, I would expect his rushing efficiency to bounce back to normal levels. He scored 23 fantasy points without that in this game.

• Justin Fields was looking for George Pickens

  • Pickens had a very solid game - 6/85 on an elite 30% target share. But for whatever reason, Arthur Smith decided to only have him running routes on 79% of dropbacks. This is not typical for a team’s #1 WR, and this just goes to show how Smith is galaxy braining his offense. The good news is that Fields will find his guy.

• Titans backfield isn’t so split after all

  • It is a split, but more so based on role and not in every situation like the coaches were leading us to think. Tony Pollard is the clear early down back (and looked good), getting 16 carries to Tyjae Spears’ 4. Spears ran more routes, but he’s just the passing down back - the same role he had last year. Pollard is getting the goal line looks, and he was still able to get 4 targets with a solid 45% route participation. He gets an upgrade to becoming a lot more startable. Spears will have a bigger role in negative game scripts.