Purdy Bad News: It's a Concussion for the 49ers QB 😧

Deshaun Watson woke up with a sore hand from counting all of his guaranteed money Wednesday night, and is expected to miss Week 8 as a result. Another tough injury break for Watson in 2023.

What’s in store:

• Mr. Irrelevant has an injury that is very relevant 🤕. The 49ers could be without their QB1 heading into a marquee matchup against Cincy.

• Christian Watson looks just fine, folks. Quick sigh of relief - he was able to practice yesterday and plans to play in Week 8.

• Buy this hibernating wide receiver before he’s back with a splash! Faraz identifies an AFC North pass catcher to go and get this week via trade.

• Jahan Dotson is having trouble earning targets. No shit, Sherlock. But the environment it’s happening in might surprise you…

• 49ers QB Brock Purdy enters NFL’s concussion protocol, status for Week 8 vs Cincinnati up in the air

  • And from way out of left field, one of fantasy football’s most dependable quarterbacks is in jeopardy of missing the first regular season game of his career due to injury. According to reports, Purdy began to experience symptoms on the team’s flight back to San Francisco after their Monday night loss to the Vikings. In line to start if he isn’t cleared by the end of the week would be QB Sam Darnold, who beat out former 49ers 3rd overall pick Trey Lance for the No. 2 job this past training camp. Darnold would certainly be worth a look off the waiver wire for teams in need at QB, but he isn’t a priority addition given that there are no teams on bye and the fact that he may only need to step in this week. San Francisco’s skill players - Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and CMC - shouldn’t be downgraded much, if at all, as a result of Purdy’s concussion, although their floors and ceilings may be a bit lower than usual.

• Bears rookie RB Roschon Johnson is expected to clear the NFL’s concussion protocol this week and return vs. Chargers

  • After a longer than expected absence as a result of a concussion he suffered in Week 5, Johnson is once again practicing in full and is set to take the field Sunday night. This is great news for the rookie, but he’ll re-enter a backfield that is projects to be a bit more complicated than it would have been had he been able to return from his injury a week sooner. With the emergence of D’Onta Foreman, there’s a chance that Johnson could end up playing a 1B role behind him. In his five starts this season, Johnson has had a very limited role in all of them besides Week 1 against Green Bay, when he was able to corral six of his seven targets on the day en route to an overall RB16 finish. Since then, he’s failed to crack the top-36 and misses two games with a concussion. Johnson is worth a prospective add but shouldn’t be started until we see signs that he could receive a fantasy-relevant workload.

• Packers WR Christian Watson logs a limited practice on Wednesday, should play Week 8 vs Minnesota

  • There was legitimate concern for Watson’s immediate future after watching him go down late against the Broncos with a knee injury, but it seems like the second-year pro has largely shaken it off. The fact that he’s practicing this early into the Week suggests that he’ll be ready to play come Sunday afternoon in a great matchup against the Vikings. Watson has yet to live up to expectations in his three starts this season, averaging just under ten points per game while catching just 16 passes in that span. The declining play of QB Jordan Love is certainly partially to blame, but Watson has a great opportunity to turn things around with three top-5 matchups over the next four weeks against the aforementioned Vikings, Steelers, and Chargers. He’ll be a solid WR3 start if he’s ultimately able to go.

• Tee Higgins is someone I’d be inquiring about if I have a need at wide receiver going into Week 8. This has really been a lost first half of the season for the Bengals… they’re coming out of the bye now, and this is the target date that we’ve been putting on the calendar for Joe Burrow to be back to 100%. We should see more output out of this team moving forward - there was a point where we were viewing this offense as one of the best in the league, and there was a point a few weeks into this season where they were one of the worst offenses in the NFL. I’m expecting that to normalize.

• You look at Higgins’ first two or three games of this season, and you see that he garnered a very healthy 24% target share AND led the team with 46% air yards share. He had that Top-5 finish in Week 2 just to remind you what he’s capable of… but finishing outside the Top-60 4 times this year really washed that out of everyone’s mind pretty damn fast. He had the rib injury that kept him out or limited his last two weeks before the bye, and despite that, he still ranks among the top-10 in end zone targets in the NFL.

• Joe Burrow has been banged up, and he only gave Higgins a catchable ball on 54% of his targets. That number was at 78% last year according to Fantasy Life, and for that reason, I’m expecting that to normalize as well. He had nine WR2 finishes last year, plus three Top 5 finishes… I think he now has a good chance of being a very solid WR2 with upside the rest of the way. And the truth is, he’s just cheap right now. You look at the matchups down the stretch near playoff time - Pittsburgh in Week 12, Jacksonville, Indy, Minnesota, Pittsburgh again, and a potential shootout with the Chiefs - I’m buying.

• We have the Bills at home against the Bucs. On the Bills side, you’re starting Josh Allen, and James Cook is a RB2 play - not a terrible matchup for him as the Bucs are giving up over 4 YPC to RBs, are middle of the pack in yards per reception to RBs, and they do allow RBs to be used in the receiving game.

• You’re obviously starting Stefon Diggs, and I do like Gabe Davis as well… in fact, I like the over on him on Underdog. His line is set is 39.5, and I’m taking the over - the Bucs have been the 2nd worst team behind the Chargers in giving up 20+ yard passing plays, and that’s where Davis makes his money.

• I also like Stefon Diggs going over 87.5 receiving yards as well for similar reasons; he had also gone over 100 yards receiving in 5 of 6 games coming into the New England game, a game which I had a good feeling that he wasn’t going to have that big yardage game in because we know the Patriots have been very good at taking the top offensive weapons away this season. I’m expecting a bounce back this week.

• I also like the anytime TD on Latavius Murray - he’s their goal line back, and it was him who was on the field at the goal line last week, not James Cook.

• On the other side of the ball, I like Mike Evans to go over on his receiving yards - his is set at 62.5 yards - I like the over there as well. Kendrick Bourne went over that last week against the Bills on the perimeter, Darius Slayton did it the week before, and Calvin Ridley did it in Week 5.

It’s no secret that Commanders WR Jahan Dotson has been underperforming in the 2023 season – through seven games, he’s eclipsed the double-digit mark in fantasy points scored just once while also putting up a bagel in the game log in Week 6. The quiet start has left him rostered in just over 50% of fantasy leagues across the biggest fantasy football platforms (Sleeper, ESPN, and NFL.com). Dotson has struggled to earn targets in the Commanders offense, but that issue becomes even more glaring when we compare it to the Sam Howell’s dropback rate over the first seven weeks of the season.

In one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses, Jahan Dotson has fallen back to third in the pecking order among Commanders pass catchers. Ahead of Dotson’s 16% target share on the season are Terry McLaurin (25%) and Curtis Samuel (17%) – and over the past three weeks, even TE Logan Thomas is out-targeting him! Dotson has also scored just one touchdown this season after reeling in seven last year, and he hasn’t looked at all like the budding future WR2 he had the chance to be coming into this season.

Why is this significant? Well, in Weeks 13-18 of last year, Dotson was averaging a 23% target share and 36% air yards share in five games while also posting two top-15 finishes in that time span. That was with the same set of weapons around him on offense, and with multiple quarterbacks under center. In fact, in Sam Howell’s lone start last year, Dotson earned a 24% target share and 36% air yards share!

Those numbers have not followed Dotson over into 2023 despite the fact that Sam Howell is dropping back to pass at the highest rate in the NFL. Dotson is averaging just 5.5 targets per game in an offense with an available 36 pass attempts per game, which has made Dotson into an expendable piece on most fantasy rosters. As long as Howell is continuing to drop back at a high rate, Dotson will have the opportunity to turn things around – but as things stand right now, the former Penn State standout isn’t a primary focus of the passing attack.