Is Quentin Johnston ready for takeoff? 🚀

Not a whole lot of news popped up since our last newsletter besides the schedule release, which had plenty of excitement on its own for general NFL fans. Take a look at our most highly anticipated matchups in 2024 here:

What’s in store:

• The Bills sign Maquez Valdes-Scantling. 🦬 If the Chiefs can win two Super Bowls in a row with him, why can’t Buffalo?

• Is it Quentin Johnston’s time to shine? 🚀 New Chargers GM Joe Hortiz seems to be confident in a year 2 leap from the former 1st-round pick.

• Target THIS NFC East pass catcher. 🤠 Zach brings us one of his favorite fantasy targets heading into 2024.

• Making sense of Roman Wilson and his landing spot in Pittsburgh. Faraz sorts through the situation in a preview of the rookie draft kit, available now!

• Former Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling signs with Bills on one-year ‘prove it’ deal, joins crowded WR room

  • Talk about being spoiled by quarterback play and doing a whole lot of nothing to capitalize on it. Through his six years in the league, MVS has caught passes from Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, and now will have a chance to play with Josh Allen in 2023 assuming he doesn’t flame out in camp. If only Terry McLaurin could have this kind of luck when it comes to the person delivering him the ball. Valdes-Scantling enters a WR room that’s clearly being operated by committee at this point as the Bills look to retool their attack sans Stefon Diggs. WRs Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel, as well as TE Dalton Kincaid figure to be his stiffest competition for targets, while James Cook will likely continue to be used out of the backfield in the receiving game. And we can’t forget about Khalil Shakir, either, who showed some rapport with Josh Allen late last year and into the playoffs. While his hands are certainly one of the more suspect sets in Buffalo’s WR room, there’s no question that MVS is likely the fastest of the bunch and that could earn him some looks downfield in 2024. Given the competition in Buffalo, however, combined with the fact that MVS is pretty much a one trick pony (who’s trick isn’t even all that good), fantasy managers would likely be best off leaving him on the waiver wire until further notice.

• Bears RB coach Chad Morton ‘excited’ to utilize recently signed RB D’Andre Swift in the receiving game

  • It’s important to make the distinction that this is the RB coach we’re talking about in this instance and not the offensive coordinator (i.e. the running backs coach doesn’t call the plays). Also working against fantasy managers this time of year is the fact that most ‘news’ we hear is just hype that never truly comes to fruition – simply because it’s not a good look for coaches to say anything bad about their recently signed players. Could this be a case of that happening here? Certainly. In an offense that already features the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft at QB, plus three WR1-caliber receivers and a plus tight end, it’s understandable to expect that the slice of the target pie delegated to the running backs would be relatively small. However, that hasn’t deterred Chad Morton from expressing his interest in using Swift in the passing game. With RBs Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert also likely to mix in depending on the game situation, any help Swift can get in the receiving game will only help to secure his fantasy floor on a weekly basis. Swift was an average-to-below average pass catcher in 2023 with the Eagles, ranking in the bottom half of the league in yards per route run (0.96), so it’ll be interesting to see just how often the Bears look to dial him up with Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D.J. Moore also available in the offense.

• Chargers GM Joe Hortiz says that second-year WR Quentin Johnston is ‘really going to launch’ in 2024

  • This is all good and well, Joe, but he was supposed to launch last year in a pass-first offense with the crafty Kellen Moore at OC and he failed spectacularly to do so. Ok, this might be a slight overreaction… the Chargers did have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams ahead of QJ on the depth chart, as well as Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett. But the point remains that the Chargers are likely to deploy a much more run-focused offensive attack in 2024, and that doesn’t bode well for a pass catcher who was having trouble even seeing the field in his rookie season. Johnston ran a route on just 63% of dropbacks in 2023 while also being outperformed by Allen, Williams, and even Josh Palmer in other key metrics (YPRR, TPRR, etc). The good news for Johnston in 2024 is that it’s likely to be open season this summer for targets in the LA offense; the bad news is that the number of available targets by default in the offense is likely to come way down from the 65/35 split Kellen Moore ran last year. A vote of confidence from the new GM is never a bad thing for a struggling second year WR, and given the state of the Chargers WR room we can’t just write off Johnston at this point. He’s a deep, deep sleeper and worth consideration as a dart throw in the final rounds of fantasy drafts.

TARGET TE Jake Ferguson, DAL

If it wasn’t already painfully obvious by the fact that they’re hinging their run game on a second stint from 29-year old RB Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys are going to be a very pass-heavy offense in 2024 – potentially even more so than in 2023. Dallas ran the 10th-most pass plays and dropped QB Dak Prescott back to pass at the 14th-highest rate in the league, both numbers that could reasonably go up with Dallas essentially punting on the run game. We know Ceedee Lamb is good for 125+ targets as long as he’s healthy, but it’s not Brandin Cooks that stands to benefit the most from increased target availability in the Cowboys offense. It’s Jake Ferguson.

Ferguson enjoyed a pseudo-breakout at the tight end position in 2023, racking up 71 receptions for 761 yards and five touchdowns on a very healthy 97 targets with a 72% route participation. While 72% route participation isn’t all that impressive for a tight end in a vacuum, when we consider it in the context of the Cowboys offense, we see a player that has a clear shot at becoming the No. 2 target in the offense in 2024. Ferguson was one of three Cowboys pass catchers to register a route participation over 70% last season, the others being the aforementioned Lamb and Cooks. Dallas opted to wait until the sixth round of April’s draft to select their first skill player in WR Ryan Flournouy, so there’s no indication that any kind of shakeup is on the horizon for the Cowboys receiving room – and that continuity could be what allows Ferguson to separate from Cooks as the clear No. 2 position in the pecking order.

Where Ferguson really made himself a threat in 2023 was in the red zone and in the end zone. He developed a strong rapport with Dak Prescott that saw him earn the second-most end zone targets in the NFL among tight ends (9). That number ranked higher than Ceedee Lamb’s eight end zone targets, as well, suggesting that the dynamic third year tight end has taken the strides necessary to not only be an option in the most productive part of the field, but the top option at that.

A slightly higher route participation should be in the cards Ferguson, who saw his 2023 total % dragged by a lackluster start to the year. Just as the bye week seemed to work like magic for flipping Ceedee Lamb’s fortunes last year, it also helped Ferguson, who saw his route participation jump from 65% from Weeks 1-6 up to 81% from Week 8 on. Combine that with the second-highest missed tackles forced per reception among TEs behind only Trey McBride, and Ferguson has a real chance to finish as a Top-5 fantasy TE in 2024 and come through in a big way at his TE9 ADP.

Wilson can be the first slot receiver to be taken in the draft. He played inside on 60% of his routes and he tested extremely fast at the NFL Combine. He was used downfield a ton in college; his 14.4 yard aDOT was the 7th highest in this class, but he still moved the chains as evidenced by his 0.10 career first downs/route run. When you combine that with his 2.33 career yards/route run, it forms a very solid efficiency profile.

Wilson didn’t break out until he was 22 years old, which is a big knock on his profile, but at least he accounted for 30%+ of his team’s offensive production when he did it. He did have the 2nd highest career dominator rating in this class, only behind Marvin Harrison Jr. There’s a chance he can become a slot WR who gets peppered with targets, with a guy like Amon-Ra St. Brown being the ceiling comp. With that being said, Wilson can struggle at times when he doesn’t get free releases, so him working as a flanker probably isn’t going to be in the cards for him at the next level. At best, we might have to depend on him being a PPR WR3.

Side note: He was one of the Top 3-4 WRs who stood out at the Senior Bowl to me. He was so good that he didn’t even have to show up on Day 3 of practice, and he was already on his way out after just a couple of days of practice. He showed enough. His stock improved there, and his stock improved once again at the NFL Combine.

Landing Spot Analysis: I think George Pickens was facing some risk for a WR to come there and take away some targets in what was already going to be a run heavy offense… and now with Roman Wilson there, I think this is a win for Pickens. I don’t think Wilson has enough versatility to his game where he’ll be a consistent target earner, while Pickens can at least make up for any lack in targets by his ability down the field and in the contested catch game.

I really liked what I saw from Roman Wilson at the Senior Bowl, but he’s a field stretching slot receiver who would’ve needed to show more underneath and on intermediate routes for me to bet on him being someone who can eat up targets in that area and not just win on uber efficiency down the field out of the slot, like a Tyler Lockett or someone like that.