Ranking AFC North Fantasy RBs! 📊

That’s a wrap on preseason 2023. You can feel it in the air… regular season football is less than two short weeks away. 😁

What’s in store:

• A new RB2 in Cleveland? The Browns wheel and deal to acquire depth behind Nick Chubb.

• AFC North Fantasy RB Rankings! Faraz reveals where each ball carrier sits in his 2023 rankings.

• Zach’s 2023 fantasy football bold predictions! Scroll down to see what he’s got cooking ahead of the new year.

• Is an Austin Ekeler RB1 encore in our future? The Chargers’ new offensive coordinator isn’t scaring Tyler.

• Patriots send RB Pierre Strong to the Browns in trade to acquire O-line depth

  • With the Browns needing depth at running back and Strong slated to see little to no action in New England following the signing of Ezekiel Elliott, this is an ideal outcome for both sides. With Jerome Ford banged up after missing most of training camp and no clear No. 2 to Nick Chubb, Strong could have a chance to contribute on passing downs early until Ford is back to 100%. Fantasy managers shouldn’t buy too far into the Browns acquisition of Strong, however, with Ford playing promisingly when he was healthy – once he return, Strong will likely be reduced to the RB3 role until another injury would happen.

• Giants rest their top offensive starters in Preseason Week 3

  • The takeaway here is that the players that rested likely comprise the Giants’ starting offense on opening night vs. the Cowboys. They included WRs Parris Campbell, Darius Slayton, and Isaiah Hodgins; RB Saquon Barkley; and TE Darren Waller. Notably allowed to play in New York’s final preseason game was Jalin Hyatt, who projects to be at the top of the reserves behind the aforementioned pass catchers. The clear fantasy targets on the Giants appear to be obvious at this point, with Waller and Barkley likely to be some of the strongest producers of any of the Giants skill players.

• Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson shine in very limited preseason action

  • Wilson’s three catch, 30-yard performance culminated in a perfect touchdown pass from Rodgers on a fade over a Giants defender. While not necessarily “news”, it was good to see that the new connection was able to fire on all cylinders in just two drives of game action, setting high expectations for the new QB-WR duo ahead of 2023. It looks like Wilson will benefit in a big way from the improved QB play or Rodgers, who has compared Wilson to Davante Adams over the course of the offseason.

RB6 - Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

• Chubb is obviously one of the best runners in the NFL, but his knock for fantasy has always been the lack of use in the receiving game. Many believe that can change with Kareem Hunt not on the team anymore, but it seems as though 2nd-year RB Jerome Ford is stepping into that role. If that's the case, Chubb's role likely won't change.

• Chubb has actually never had the full share of overall work in the backfield, even in the several games Hunt has missed in the past. Kevin Stefanski has always complemented Chubb with whatever random RB he had on the roster.

• With that being said, Chubb is still in position to be a monster in the run game. The offense has a good chance of taking a step forward with Deshaun Watson going into Year 2 with the Browns, they have a great offensive line, and they have weapons in the receiving game who defenses have to account for. Among the 8 RBs with 250+ carries last year, Chubb was 1st in yards after contact/attempt and 1st in missed tackles forced/attempt.

• He's damn good, even without the receiving, but I'm not sure we can put him in that next tier we desperately want to put him in.

RB13 - Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

• Without Samaje Perine, Mixon has a good chance of staying on the field in situations where Perine was previously taking over. It doesn't seem like Mixon will be suspended this year, so you might be getting an every-down back on a great offense.

• There are some concerns though... you would think a RB on an offense like the Bengals would be able to maintain some efficiency, but Mixon took a big step back last year. It was pretty bad.

• There were 22 RBs who had 200 or more carries last season. Mixon was dead last in yards after contact/attempt. Among those 22 RBs, Mixon was also dead last in forced missed tackles/attempt. Not good. He also had the least amount of 10+ yard runs. I'm starting to think... is this why the Bengals felt the need to restructure?

• It's worth noting that the carry threshold of a RB when he starts to break down is around 1500 carries, and Mixon is currently at more than 1400. I was pounding the table for Mixon as a value in drafts earlier in the off-season, but now I'm starting to re-think that. Maybe it's better to draft and stash Chase Brown in the event Mixon gets banged up. Brown proved he can handle a big workload in college, and maybe some fresh legs can provide a spark in the Bengals backfield.

RB14 - J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens

• Dobbins has a chance to shine now that he's a year removed from his ACL+ injury and that he's less likely to have an even share with Gus Edwards with a new OC. I'm expecting Dobbins to take a big jump forward this year.

• There’s been chatter about his new OC using him more in the receiving game, too, which would be welcome. I think there's a narrative that Gus Edwards will be a part of the rotation the same way he has before, and I think that's the main difference we'll see, with the backfield feature Dobbins this year after the change in OC.

• If I had to give you my pick for this year's Josh Jacobs, it's Dobbins - I think there's a good chance he sees 250+ carries this year, even on a more balanced offense. And if he gets that type of opportunity, the underrated talent can take over.

• In his 2020 rookie season, he averaged 6 yards/carry and ranked 7th among 47 qualifying RBs in yards after contact/attempt. He was 2nd only to Nick Chubb in percentage of runs going over 15+ yards. Despite not being at full strength last year, he ranked 3rd in that category. He's finally at full strength again with a great offensive line, and a new OC should recognize that he should be THE guy in that backfield.

RB15 - Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

• Najee Harris is the definition of a solid RB. He's nothing super special, but he's solid. He can carry a big workload if called upon, and he can catch the football but not do anything special with it. As a rookie last year, Jaylen Warren took over 3rd and long situations, but Najee remained the offense's 2-minute back throughout the majority of the season.

• It's possible we see Warren get more work - he was pretty efficient in the run game and the receiving game as a rookie, but it's also possible that if Najee is completely healthy this year, he goes back to being the guy. The word out of camp is that Warren will likely continue to get work, and possibly get even more work this season.

• At Najee's price, I think he's a solid pick, but I might prefer some of the WRs going around him given his range of outcomes. If Warren truly moves into his workload, Najee is likely overpriced. I never believed Najee was an amazing talent, but we do know he's very capable of handling a big workload - but he is volume dependent. I'd just hope the Steelers offense can take a step forward this year - it all depends on Kenny Pickett, who did look better in the second half of the year and through this preseason.

1. Calvin Ridley finishes as a top-5 WR in PPR scoring

• Ridley has backed up the glowing reports coming out of training camp in his limited preseason action, and despite plenty of target competition in Jacksonville, should be able to cement himself as Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target in 2023.

• The last time we saw Ridley, he was averaging 9.4 targets per game across 2020 and 2021 before stepping away from the game for personal reasons and collecting a year-long suspension for gambling. Despite the time away, it appears that Ridley hasn’t lost a step and in a pass-first Jaguars offense, he could push to meet that target-earning threshold once again.

• In Ridley’s best season with the Falcons (2020), he registered excellent marks in multiple important metrics highly correlative with fantasy production, including 2.44 yards per route run (5th), an average depth of target of 15.2 on 137 targets (1st), and an 84.7 PFF receiving grade (10th).

• On a high-volume Jaguars passing offense (9th most pass attempts in 2022), Ridley should have no trouble earning targets. And while there’s no guarantee he steps in Week 1 and dominates the target share, he does have a history of producing even against quality target competition.

• Back in 2020, Ridley (137 targets) was able to out-target Russell Gage (104 targets), Hayden Hurst (85 targets), and Julio Jones (65 targets, but only across 9 games played). A similar distribution could shake out in Jacksonville this year, with Christain Kirk being no slouch and Evan Engram signing a long-term deal with the team.

• The offense Ridley is stepping into is easily better than the one he played in the last time he was on the field, and the talent has not faded while he was away from the game. If Lawrence and Ridley can carry their chemistry over from training camp and the preseason into the regular season, top-5 upside is 100% attainable in 2023.

2. Zay Flowers finishes as a top-15 WR in PPR scoring

• Baltimore has a crowded WR room on paper, but no Ravens reciever has been able to solidify themselves as the No. 2 target in the passing game behind Mark Andrews. The true pecking order in the regular season will be established on the job, and after a strong camp and preseason, Flowers has an inside track to claiming the Ravens No. 1 job.

• The only Ravens WR to register a target share over 20% in the last two seasons was Marquise Brown in 2021 (24.5%). Like Flowers, he was a first round pick and undersized (both receivers stand at 5’9”, 180 lbs). Rashod Bateman has yet to eclipse 17% target share in his career as he’s dealt with injuries, and Odell Beckham Jr. hasn’t played a true WR1 role since 2019.

• Bateman also remains banged up while he makes his return from a Lisfranc injury that caused him to miss the majority of the 2022 season. Even if he’s playing in Week 1, there’s a good chance he’ll be eased back into the gameplan while he ramps up to 100%.

• That leaves the top spot wide open for the taking, and reports from camp have been overwhelmingly positive regarding the rookie. While Mark Andrews is expected to continue to be Lamar Jackson’s preferred target, in a more balanced offense, Flowers has the potential to see well over 100 targets.

• His 6.4 yards after catch per reception with Boston College was tied-4th highest among NCAA wide receivers with over 100 targets in 2022, and his 12 touchdowns ranked 2nd-most among those same 100 receivers. He has the ideal combination of talent, situation, and QB play heading into 2023, which could allow him to surprise as one of the top fantasy wide receivers out of the gate.

After a 2021 season that saw him finish as the RB2 with 20 total TDs, Austin Ekeler was expected to see some type of regression in 2022, particularly from a step back in TDs. Well, that definitely didn’t happen – Ekeler went on to have a career year in 2022, tallying over 1,600 total yards and 18 TDs en route to finishing as the RB1 in PPR scoring.

In his elite 2022 season, Ekeler was the pinnacle of consistency, posting 9+ points in every game, 11+ points in all but one game, and 18+ points in 11/17 games.

The reason for his exceptional production and consistency: receiving work.

Ekeler was the top receiving back in the NFL by a mile in 2022, drawing the most targets (127) and receptions (108) by far, plus ranking 2nd in receiving yards (722) and TDs (9). With 4 or more catches in all but two games, you knew you were getting a stable floor week-in and week-out.

It’s expected that Ekeler will naturally take a step back in the receiving game with the duo of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen finally healthy (only 8 games where both played in 2022) to go with the addition of 2023 1st Round pick Quentin Johnston at WR. However, the lack of movement at RB with the Chargers declining to draft or sign a free agent RB, despite the contract situation with Ekeler this offseason, indicates another season of him controlling the backfield work.

You can’t go wrong with Ekeler as an elite-RB1, so it ultimately comes down to whether you prefer the security of Ekeler or the upside in Christian McCaffrey to determine who should be your RB1 off the board in 2023.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Among three obvious 2nd-year breakout candidates at WR, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave have received the most hype ahead of the 2023 season. That’s reflected in their current Underdog ADPs, with Olave and Wilson both currently coming off the board inside the Top-12 of the WR position. Look further down the board, though, and you’ll find that there’s another sophomore receiver who also had himself an underrated rookie season: Drake London. Unlike Wilson and Olave, his QB situation hasn’t changed drastically – but his talent and production last year are both very encouraging.

London suffered greatly as a result of Marcus Mariota’s poor QB play through most of the 2022 season, but saw a significant increase in multiple usage metrics and overall fantasy production once Desmond Ridder took over at QB. That included both a positive change by almost 5 points per game when the Falcons switched to Ridder, as well as an unbelievable 40% increase in London’s air yards share up to 69.5%!

With Ridder set to start for the Falcons in 2023 after a full offseason of work as the presumptive QB1, London could reprise his role as Ridder’s favorite target in a passing game lacking real weapons outside of himself and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons might be one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL once again, but the No. 1 receiver in any offense will have plenty of opportunity – and London can capitalize with his talent.