The offseason officially comes to ca close this week. The most fun part about fantasy football is over (drafting), and now we get to go through 15-16 weeks of excruciating lineup setting!

What’s in store:

• The James Cook hype is getting too big to fail… A finish outside the Top-12 would qualify as a Cam Akers-sized letdown at this point.

• Drafting an NFC South WR? Check out these WR Rankings First ⬇️ See where your receiver lands in Faraz’s NFC South Fantasy WR Power Rankings!

• Tiered Rankings: Running Backs. See Zach’s first two tiers heading into 2023!

• Can Ceedee Lamb climb to the top of the WR Pyramid? Tyler is all in on the Cowboys WR for 2023.

• The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia says that RB James Cook is the “clear top back in Buffalo”.

  • At a certain point, we’re going to have to take their word for it if we haven’t already. There have been plenty of instances where reports like these come out and are not supported by what we see on the field, but it’s not a controversial take to say that James Cook is easily the most talented running back on the Bills roster as of today. If Cook looks like a potential RB1 and the reports indicate that he’s a potential RB1, then he’s probably a potential RB1. HIs true ceiling will be determined by his work in the receiving game, where despite garnering a high targets per route run last year, he didn’t run that many routes in 2022. Any type of increase in workload in that regard should help make Cook a value at his ADP.

• Vikings beat reporter Alec Lewis says that the Vikings are “very committed to Alexander Mattison being the guy” to lead the Minnesota backfield this season.

  • This echoes sentiments from early in the offseason from HC Kevin O’Connell, who said that Mattison was capable of handling an every-down role in the wake of Dalvin Cook’s release. Since then, the backfield competition behind Mattison has yielded no substantial threats to his playing time, and barring a last minute signing or trade ahead of Week 1, he should be locked in as the Vikings RB1. As drafts wrap up, Mattison will close draft season as a potentially undervalued pick with what projects to be a safe fantasy floor week in and week out on a good Vikings offense.

• WR11 - Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

  • As a rookie, he was stuck between Davante Adams and Amon-Ra St. Brown in yards route run among WRs with 100+ targets. He ranked 6th in the NFL in that category. Since 2006, there were only four WRs who had more yards per route run than Chris Olave in their rookie years. The other three? OBJ, Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. And by the way, those guys had WR6 finishes or better in their second year. And Chris Olave is getting a QB upgrade.

  • FantasyLife's Dwain McFarland also points out that only one other player had a 25% target share and 40% air yard share last year besides Davante Adams - you guessed it, Chris Olave. And we just saw Derek Carr give Davante Adams a career high 180 targets. We're about to see Olave get peppered this season.

  • By the way, if you're worried about Michael Thomas, why? Worrying about Michael Thomas is like betting that he will stay healthy. He hasn't been able to be that guy for three seasons in a row now, and he's already 30 years old. Olave is the alpha on that offense, and has Top-5 upside.

• WR21 - Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

  • Drake London hit the 2 yards/route run threshold we love to see for rookie WRs, as it's indicative of higher chance for future fantasy WR1 years. We know he's good... he's just not in the ideal offensive environment for him to thrive. The offense is run first, and he also has a shaky QB situation

  • There is no doubt the talent is there, and as far as that goes, he's on the same tier as Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. And if that's true, it's possible he overcomes this situation. If I had to bet on one player between him and Kyle Pitts to have a big year, it's London. When you have a 27% target share and 33% air yards share during your rookie year, and you combine that with a 2.07 yards/route run, you have yourself an alpha WR1.

  • Let's hope Desmond Ridder is not as bad as Marcus Mariota. Don't let London fall too far in your drafts - at some point you have to bet on the talent.

• WR32 - Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Too much talent to fade, right? Godwin was the WR16 in FPPG last year, yet is being drafted as the WR30. I think we're overcorrecting here, although he's not too far from that in my rankings.

  • The QB situation is super iffy, and we'll see split targets between him and Mike Evans from sub-par QBs like Baker Mayfield and maybe even Kyle Trask. Could these two be this year's Tyler Lockett and Mike Evans? That's only if we think Baker can have a career resurgence like Geno Smith. What are the chances that happens? Not sure we see something like that two years in a row.

  • It is worth noting that Godwin had the highest percentage of designed plays specifically for him (25.4%) among all receivers with 100+ targets last year, and it wasn't close. 20% target share last year isn't going to wow anyone, though, and his 18% air yards share was pretty bad. It seems like he took a hit in usage once Bruce Arians retired.

  • Godwin is a year removed from his ACL injury, but it's hard to buy into WRs on the Bucs offense right now.

• WR54 - Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers

  • With rookie Bryce Young under center and an average complement of weapons around him, Thielen’s ceiling just isn’t going to be that high this year. The WR room – while it boasts no standouts – is relatively crowded, and at this point in his career, Thielen isn’t in any position to separate himself from the rest of the pack with his talent.

  • However, age is a double-edged sword: as the oldest WR in the room, he’s also the most experienced, and it seems like Young has been able to depend on Thielen throughout camp and into the preseason. Young’s lone touchdown went to Thielen in the final week of the preseason.

  • It’s unlikely that Thielen sustains any consistent Top-24 production at any point this year given his situation and target competition, but there’s a chance for him to sneak in as a value given his very low ADP. If you do take a shot on him, understand that his value rests in the floor he presents and not his upside.

Tier 1: Workhorses with RB1 Overall Upside

• Christian McCaffrey: The ultimate weapon at running back on one of the best offenses in the NFL. From Week 8 onward, McCaffrey was the overall PPR RB1 in fantasy points per game (23.0), three points per game more than the next player on the list, Austin Ekeler (20.1). Expect nothing but the best from McCaffrey as long as he’s healthy.

• Austin Ekeler: Ekeler lands in the top tier of running backs by virtue of his production over the past two years, but a change at OC and more target competition at WR could prevent him from repeating as the RB1. He has a safe floor as a Top-8 running back, but that’s a wider range of outcomes than any other RB in this tier.

• Bijan Robinson: Forget about where the depth chart says he ranks; the Falcons didn’t draft him to have him ride the bench. History is behind Robinson in his rookie year, and not only is he the best RB prospect to come out of a draft since Saquon Barkley (who tied for 2nd in PPR pts/game as rookie), but he also has an excellent offensive line and run-heavy scheme in Atlanta.

• Tony Pollard: Ezekiel Elliott is gone and it’s Pollard’s time to shine. One of the most efficient running backs in fantasy football, Pollard averaged a ridiculous 27.8 fantasy points per game in two games without Elliott in the lineup. Nobody has challenged him for significant time this preseason, and he’s slated to be the new Cowboys workhorse.

Tier 2: Workhorses With Top-5 Upside and Nick Chubb

• Josh Jacobs: Last year’s rushing leader is back with the Raiders after ending his holdout, and that’s music to fantasy managers’ ears. With Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm, I expect the offense to get worse – but Jacobs was one of the most efficient RBs in the league last year. There’s questions about the offense overall that make me less confident in Jacobs than the guys in tier 1.

• Nick Chubb: Arguably the most talented runner in the league, he’s perpetually left in tier 2 because of his relatively low involvement in the passing game. That hasn’t stopped him from finishing as a fantasy RB1, but he has yet to crack the Top-5 in PPR scoring in his career. The Browns added Pierre Strong to spell Chubb while Jerome Ford is missing, indicating that Chubb will continue to be refused a full workload.

• Saquon Barkley: Despite finishing the year as the overall RB5 in PPR pts/game, he was actually relatively inefficient on the ground and through the air. He’ll push for another Top-5 finish again with the workload he’ll receive, but he’s not as efficient a producer as the players above him are.

Even despite a rough 2022 season for QB Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb thrived, posting career-best numbers in every category. With 107 catches (5th) for 1,359 yards (6th) and 9 TDs (6th), very few WRs could compare to Lamb, ranking as the WR5 in PPR scoring.

The reason for Lamb’s success: volume. He had no shortage of targets last season, drawing the 4th-most targets in the league (156) behind only Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill while also ranking 4th in target share with an absurd 28.1% of the targets in Dallas.

Heading into year 4 of his NFL career, Lamb’s ceiling is as high as anyone in fantasy. However, there is reason to believe his workload may be reduced in 2023 with the departure of OC Kellen Moore and the arrival of WR Brandin Cooks. That may be a trade-off for reduced overall targets, but higher-value targets, seeing as TE Dalton Schultz departed Dallas this offseason, vacating 16 targets (18th) and 5 TDs (10th) in the redzone.

Lamb’s one of the few WRs that I am comfortable with (and confident enough in) to draft in the late-1st/early-2nd round, where he is being projected to go (WR5 on ECR, WR8 on ADP). He’s one of the very few WRs offering consistent elite week-to-week production and is among the even fewer that have the realistic potential to end up as 2023’s top WR in fantasy.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Former Eagles RB Miles Sanders joined the Panthers via free agency this offseason on a 4-year deal. He earned that big payday with a very strong 2022 performance, finishing with over 1300 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns behind an excellent Eagles offensive line. While Sanders was able to dominate on the ground last year, a closer look at a few advanced stats paints a clearer picture of the path he took to get there, and newsflash: it wasn’t all Sanders.

Sanders enjoyed 2.3 yards before contact per attempt in 2022, which led the league among RBs to handle 150 or more attempts. That was in Philadelphia behind arguable the league’s best offensive line – he now lands in Carolina where no Panthers RB