What’s in store:

• Kareem Hunt visits the Big Easy ⚜️ Could trouble be afoot for Kendre Miller drafters?

• Drafting a Rookie RB? You’ll want to check out Faraz’s Top-3 rookie running back rankings.

• It’s never a bad time to run a mock draft. 😎 Zach takes us through his top picks from a 12-team mock!

• What is Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ceiling in 2023? Tyler dives into last year’s production, and projects for this year.

• Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports that Damien Harris has “consistently been the second back to get snaps behind James Cook”

  • James Cook SZN is officially in full swing ahead of the 2023 season, with the second-year RB reportedly head and shoulders above the rest of the Bills’ RB room at this point in camp. The question was never about Cook’s role in the passing game, even before Nyheim Hines went down – instead, it was about just how much work Cook would get in the run game while competing with Damien Harris. If this report is any indicator, then it appears that James Cook will be able to live up to his 3-down back label he received last week from the Bills coaching staff. Cook was targeted at a ridiculously high rate last year by Josh Allen on a per-route basis – that ability in the receiving game, coupled with a supplemental dose of work on the ground, should give Cook a very solid fantasy floor with room to finish inside the Top-12 on a weekly basis.

• Kareem Hunt visits the Saints following Kamara suspension

  • Look away, Kendre Miller stans! Not actually – at least at this point in time. With Kamara sidelined for three games to open 2023, and backup Eno Benjamin being lost for the season to a torn achilles, the Saints are suddenly in the market for a depth RB as we close in on the start of the regular season. Hunt, who is one of a few notable free agent RBs yet to sign, has garnered little interest this offseason from potential suitors on the open market to this point – making his official visit a development to monitor. Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect Hunt to be a season-long contributor in the Saints backfield – in fact, there’s little reason to believe that he’ll be part of the Saints RB rotation in any capacity once Kamara returns. However, a sudden signing by Hunt in New Orleans is suddenly on the table and would only hurt Kendre Miller’s projected golden opportunity to open 2023.

• Giants WR Parris Campbell expected to “earn plenty of snaps – and targets – as the Giants’ starting slot receiver”, per The Athletic’s Charlotte Carroll

  • Campbell, who’s remained largely quiet to open training camp after making some noise in OTAs, is currently slated to be the Giants starting slot WR in a New York WR room that’s already considerably banged up. That could prove to be a very productive role for Campbell, who had a career year last year operating from the slot in the Colts shoddy 2022 offense. With the sheer number of pass catchers the Giants have all competing with each other to see the field, Campbell looks to be the safest bet of any WR at this moment in time as a player that should see consistent snaps come Week 1. Darren Waller figures to be Daniel Jones’ No. 1 target for the 2023 season, and Jalin Hyatt has been making some noise as of late; however, Campbell has the look of the Giants No. 2 target assuming he can out-target RB Saquon Barkley. Whether he’s the 2 or the 3 in targets this season, his volume is enough that he should not be going undrafted in any PPR format.

2023 Rookie RB Rankings! 📊

• Bijan Robinson - Atlanta Falcons (RB4)

  • In today's NFL, we don't see too many RBs taken in the first round, let alone in the Top-10. The talent was too much for Arthur Smith to give up.

  • Once Arthur Smith became the OC in Tennessee, Derrick Henry finally became the workhorse we now know him as. Henry averaged 340 carries per season in Smith's two seasons as OC in Tennessee. Atlanta also had the 2nd most rushing attempts in the NFL last season (32.9/game), only behind the Eagles (33.2/game) - and that was without a QB rushing as much as Jalen Hurts was. I'd expect Bijan to slide in to get 80% of those rushing attempts, with Tyler Allgeier getting the rest.

  • Here's the kicker: Bijan is an exceptional pass catcher out of the backfield, as well. Picture 50+ receptions on top of his rushing workload.

  • There is a world where the Falcons don't force him into a huge workload from Day 1. They have a good enough RB2 in Allgeier to allow Bijan to ease into it. But make no mistake: Bijan is still worth a 1st round pick in 2023 as a Top-5 RB. Good offensive line, run-heavy offense, elite talent.

• Jahmyr Gibbs - Detroit Lions (RB10)

  • What does Jahmyr Gibbs need in order for be a RB1 for fantasy in Year 1? All he needs is ~20% target share and some of the rushing attempts. Guys like Alvin Kamara and CMC have done it with less than 30% of their team's rushing share... and I'd imagine Gibbs might be higher than that in Year 1, even with David Montgomery there.

  • 80 catches in Year 1 is a possibility, and given his draft capital and all the expected usage around him, it's hard to rank Gibbs outside the Top-12.

  • If you need a reminder on why Gibbs is a special talent, he had two of the most efficient years in the last 10 years among collegiate RBs in the receiving game. He's explosive, and he's deadly after the catch.

  • The Lions were ready to take him at 6 overall ahead of Bijan Robinson if the Cardinals didn't come knocking to get out of that pick - and you think they're not going to use him enough? Go get Gibbs at his price, even if he's not the goal line back.

• Devon Achane - Miami Dolphins (RB27)

  • As of right now, the best RB on the Dolphins is Devon Achane. He's not going to be a goal line back, but there is a lot of upside here in Mike McDaniels' outside zone scheme... think Raheem Mostert on the 49ers when he would pop those long runs again and again - Achane can do that and more, including working him in the receiving game.

  • He's not the biggest back, but he did bulk up a bit by the time he got to training camp - he got up to 192, which is a good sign. He's on a good offense with other playmakers that you have to account for, and because of that he has a higher chance to be more efficient than what he probably would've already been. 31-year old Raheem Mostert isn't holding him back, and neither is Jeff Wilson – although I do think Wilson will be the goal line back. Obviously we're assuming Dalvin Cook doesn't sign here because if he does, the touches simply won't be there for Achane, but if Cook doesn't sign, Achane can easily see 15 touches/game on this offense, with some of that coming in the receiving game.

  • That's really all this guy needs to be an every-week RB2 - He's being drafted as the RB39, and that's just too low, especially as a RB who was drafted on Day 2. The landing spot was just perfect for him and his skillset. And all the hype around him in OTAs helps, too... it seems like he's going to be very involved in the offense.

Fantasy Football Mock Draft from the 1.02

Draft details: 12-team, full-PPR mock draft on Sleeper, drafting from the 2 spot. Starting Lineup: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLX

1.02 (2) - WR Justin Jefferson, MIN

• When the fantasy gods bless you with Justin Jefferson at the 1.02, you best take him. I’m prioritizing landing either Jefferson or Chase if I’m choosing from anywhere inside the top 4 picks of the draft, but in this instance, we get the top player in fantasy football at second overall. Chase would be an equally strong pick here.

2.11 (23) - RB Tony Pollard, DAL

• Tony Pollard is still being underdrafted in almost every league and format. Getting a running back with a clear path to top-3 overall upside at the back of the second round is highway robbery. Pollard has one of the most efficient RBs in the NFL over the past four years, and he’ll finally have the opportunity to match that efficiency with opportunity. What does that equal? Production.

3.02 (26) - WR Chris Olave, NO

• I was happy to let the player at the 2-3 turn scoop up the volatile Jaylen Waddle just one pick ahead of me. I would have been tempted to take Waddle for his upside as my WR2, but I would have chosen Olave anyway because of the high target share he’s likely to garner in New Orleans. The fact that Waddle was off the board for this pick made it even easier to smash the draft button on the second-year standout.

4.11 (47) - QB Lamar Jackson, BAL

• Lamar Jackson has his strongest supporting cast of weapons he’s had in his career heading into 2023, and he’ll be able to use his legs as usual to compound his fantasy production. The Ravens offense is being slept on as one of the best-equipped to do serious damage, with Andrews, Flowers, Beckham Jr., and Bateman making up a dangerous arsenal for the former MVP to throw to. Calvin Ridley came off the board just three picks before Lamar – if Ridley were available, he would have been the pick here.

5.02 (50) - WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN

• Jerry Jeudy as a WR3 is an excellent investment, especially as a player with the potential to return weekly high-end WR2 production in 2023. The Broncos offense will be much better under Sean Payton than it was under Nathaniel Hackett, and we got a taste of what Jeudy can do with competent coaching at the end of the last year: he put up two Top-3 weekly finishes in the final 5 weeks of the year.

6.11 (71) - RB Rachaad White, TB

• I drafted Tony Pollard earlier to kick the sky with upside – now I ground that lightning with a rock-solid, volume-based RB2 with upside to see 2-25 touches a game. Granted, it will be on a bad offense, but White could quickly become the straw that stirs the Buccaneers’ drink if he can produce in the passing game like he did last year. Not much better value to be asked for in the late-6th round.

7.02 (74) - WR Tyler Lockett, SEA

• I’ll take the receiver liable to finish as the No. 1 WR on his offense any given week as my WR4! Lockett has epitomized consistency on a year-by-year basis, scoring no fewer than eight touchdowns in each of the past five years. That streak could reasonably continue this year, with the Seahawks fielding an even better offense than last year.

8.11 (95) - RB Rashaad Penny, PHI

• The hype is all about D’Andre Swift in the Eagles backfield, but Penny could make some serious noise in an early down role behind that great offensive line. His yards per carry numbers have been inside the top-5 when he’s healthy – which is a big if – but if he can stay on the field, double digit touchdowns shouldn’t be out of the question in 2023.

9.02 (98) - WR Zay Flowers, BAL

• Reports have been swirling that Flowers has been one of the most, if not THE most, impressive rookies on ANY team in training camp. He’s already getting nicknames like “Joystick”, and the Ravens have been wowed by his route running. With his main competition in Rashod Bateman banged up, Flowers could establish himself as the Ravens’ top receiver in his rookie year – and that’s the type of upside I’m looking for in the 9th round.

10.11 (119) - WR Skyy Moore, KC

• Another young pass catcher with the chance to dominate WR target share behind an elite tight end. Skyy Moore has apparently solidified himself as the Chiefs’ top slot option, and in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, Moore has serious upside given his far-too deflated draft price.

The rest of the picks (Rounds 11-15):

11.02 (122) - WR Adam Thielen, CAR

12.11 (143) - TE Sam LaPorta, DET

13.02 (146) - RB Tank Bigsby, JAX

14.11 (167) - RB Jeff Wilson Jr., MIA

15.02 (170) - RB Jaylen Warren, PIT

When Should You Draft Amon-Ra St. Brown? 🦁

Like Goff, the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown was a major factor in Detroit’s offensive explosion in 2022, seeing the WR take a massive step forward in his sophomore season.

Coming off a solid rookie campaign (90 catches, 979 total yards, 6 TDs, WR21), St. Brown had a breakout 2022 season, seeing 106 catches, 1,256 total yards, 6 TDs, and a WR7 finish.

The backbone of his production: 146 targets and a 24.8% target share, both of which ranked in the top-12 in the league. It was that workload that guided him to extreme consistency, posting double-digit points in all but two games. That’s a fantastic floor to have, especially with a WR1, but he oftentimes didn’t exceed that floor by much, only exceeding 15 points in five games last year.

The potential to replicate and exceed his production from last season is certainly there, especially with significant turnover in the offense (Marvin Jones for DJ Chark, rookie Sam LaPorta for T.J. Hockenson, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs for Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift) and how unlucky St. Brown was in 2022, getting stopped on the 1-yard line FOUR separate times last season.

I like him as a safe low-end WR1 and at his price relative to the position (WR9 on ADP and ECR), but the deciding factor on whether or not St. Brown will be a worthwhile investment is how high he goes in the draft. His projected draft price is currently varying a lot from a fringe 1st rounder (2.01 on ADP) to a fringe 3rd rounder (2.10 on ECR). I’m comfortable with investing anything at or beyond a mid-2nd round pick on St. Brown as a very stable WR1 option with the realistic ability to continue his upward trajectory and possibly emerge as a top-5 fantasy WR.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

The highest-volume passing offenses are often home to some of the best fantasy wide receivers in the NFL, simply by virtue of the number of routes run by the receivers in that offense. That was the case in 2022, with four of the teams inside the top-5 in total routes run and targets to receivers finishing top-5, as well, in total fantasy points scored by receivers (the Cardinals finished just 12th in fantasy points scored by receivers despite ranking top-5 in routes run and total targets).

We can safely project for offenses like Minnesota, Kansas City, and Los Angeles to continue throwing the ball at a high rate in 2023 – the Chiefs have Mahomes and Andy Reid (duh); the Vikings have Kirk Cousins, Kevin O’Connell, and a loaded receiving corps; and the Chargers brought in Kellen Moore, who ran the league’s fastest-paced offense in 2022. That spells good news for wide receivers in those offenses – including Jordan Addison, Skyy Moore, and Quentin Johnston, who should all have a leg up establishing themselves in their respective offenses.

Two teams inside the Top-5 last year in routes run and targets to receivers, however, could realistically execute a paradigm shift in offensive philosophy and fall far outside the Top-5 in 2023: The Cardinals and Buccaneers. With QB trouble raging on both teams for the upcoming year, the odds of the two teams running pass-heavy offenses – especially the Cardinals with new defensive-minded HC Jonathan Gannon – are considerably low. As a result, traditional pass catchers (WRs and TEs) could struggle to produce this season.