Recapping Early Free Agent Deals!

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This week’s edition of the League Winner Daily will cover all of the fantasy-relevant free agent signings that have happened so far. Let’s dive in!

• Chris Godwin returns to Buccaneers on a three-year, $66M deal

  • Liam Coen might be gone, but new OC Josh Grizzard shouldn’t deviate too much from what made the Buccaneers one of the most efficient offenses in the league last year. Godwin is coming off a major injury but should be back in time for Week 1 of the 2025 season, and with nearly an identical situation around him personnel-wise, Godwin could pick up right where he left of before he went down last year. He’ll be in strong consideration as a WR2/borderline WR1 with high WR1 upside.

• Former 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell signs with Chiefs on one-year deal

  • In one of the more under-the-radar moves of the tampering period, the Chiefs bring in the effective (yet oft-injured) former 49ers RB on a one-year deal. Mitchell’s health (or lack of it) has been the story of his career, but like all other Shanahan running backs, he’s proven to be very efficient when he’s on the field. With Pacheco still not looking 100% as he continues to distance himself from his fibula fracture and Samaje Perine off to greener pastures in Cincinnati, Mitchell could be a name to watch in a Kansas City backfield that’s far from decided. He’s a quintessential sleeper at this stage of the offseason.

• Former Vikings QB Sam Darnold signs with Seahawks on three-year, $100.5M deal

  • The writing was on the wall for Darnold’s arrival in Seattle after the Seahawks dealt QB Geno Smith to the Raiders, and he’ll now face the task of commanding a Seattle offense that’s down two of its top weapons: D.K. Metcalf (traded to Pit) and Tyler Lockett (cut). It’s a pretty lateral move for the Seahawks from a football perspective, but Darnold likely belongs in the mid-high QB2 range as opposed to his low-QB1 finish in 2024 without a loaded offense and Kevin O’Connell’s scheme to fall back on.

• Former Steelers QB Justin Fields signs with Jets on two-year, $40M deal

  • It’s a low-risk, high-reward move for the Jets, as Fields’ rushing abilities will be a breath of fresh air after two years of the statue of Aaron Rodgers and various backups. For what it’s worth, Fields was averaging just short of 19 fantasy points per game as a starter in 2024, and moving from George Pickens to Garrett Wilson and Najee harris to Beece Hall are hardly downgrades (and if anything, upgrades). Wilson and Fields were college teammates as Ohio State, and if they can rekindle that connection

• Former Chargers WR Josh Palmer signs with Bills on three-year, $36M deal

  • Palmer has ridden the bench for most of the career as injury replacements for the likes of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and others as of late, but he lands in Buffalo on a $12M AAY deal with tons of competition for targets around him. Keon Coleman, Buffalo’s first-round WR last year, and Khalil Shakir – who recently signed a multi-year extension – headline the Bills pass catchers with Dalton Kincaid, so it’s hard to imagine Palmer suddenly becoming an elite target share-type receiver in his first year with the Bills – but he should pop up in the ether as a weekly flex option off the waivers with Josh Allen as his QB.

• Former Steelers RB Najee Harris signs with Chargers on one-year, $9.25M deal

  • Perhaps the top available running back in this year’s free agent class, Harris lands just a one-year deal but enters a system that is hand-tailored for running backs. Harbaugh’s offense propelled a finally healthy J.K. Dobbins to over 1000 scrimmage yards and 9 touchdowns, and that’s certainly in the range of outcomes for Harris in 2025 –especially if he can be the primary back and not be challenged by a talent taken later by the Chargers. A loaded RB class like this one, though, could force Harbaugh’s hand, so managers should temper expectations for the time being as we wait to see how the rest of LA’s RB room shakes out.

• Former Giants QB Daniel Jones signs with Colts on one-year, $14M deal

  • The ‘competition’ has arrived for Anthony Richardson Indianapolis. The last time we saw Daniel Joes starting was with the Giants in early 2024 when he posted an abominable 8:7 TD:INT ratio and finished just twice in 10 tries inside the Weekly top-10. For now, it’s Richardson’s job to lose – but mobility will be a theme under center in Indy this season. If Daniel Jones would wind up starting in 2025 for any reason, he’d likely profile as a mid-low QB2, while Richardson would slot in slightly higher thanks to his higher-upside arm.

• Former Broncos RB Javonte Williams signs with Cowboys on one-year, $3M deal

  • It’s a classic Jerry Jones move as the Cowboys nab a bargain-barrel running back with obvious upside but no clear path to quite achieving it. Interestingly enough, Williams vaults instantly into the top position on the depth chart for Dallas, but his time there could be short-lived with the draft just a month away. There’s a chance that Dallas could make it a backfield by committee again in 2025, but even then, Williams was far from efficient last year and doesn’t look the part of a running back primed to separate himself from the rest of the pack.

I don’t care about anybody says. Davante Adams is legit target competition for Puka Nacua, even at this stage of his career. I’ll break down how I think they’ll be deployed, how these targets will be distributed in LA, who I might be moving ahead of Puka with this move, and how we should be viewing Davante for fantasy this season.

And for those talking about how Stafford only keys in on one receiver - please - I have to address that too. Not in this situation.

But first, Puka was heading into what was going to be an absolutely monster season without any legit competition, but he just got some - with Davante Adams joining him in LA.

Puka could’ve pushed for a 35% target share this year and easily finish as the overall WR1 - but with that being said, there are still plenty of targets to go around.

And the quality of those targets just got better with Davante joining. Davante is a coverage dictating type of WR - secondaries are going to have to pick and choose, and we’re going to see tons of 1 on 1s because of it - for both of these WRs - and Matthew Stafford is exactly the QB you want to be able to take advantage.

My expectation is that Sean McVay keeps Davante on the outside as the X, keeps Puka as the flanker as he did last season, and has Tutu as the WR rotating with Puka between the slot and the Z.

This is going to be an extremely top heavy and tight target distribution - and it’s going to be amazing. McVay and Stafford had no problem doing that last year - before Cooper Kupp turned into a pumpkin in Week 15, once Puka got back from injury -  both Kupp and Puka pushed for over 27% target share.

The season before that - Puka had a 29% target share along with Kupp’s 25%. That’s not keying in on one guy.

And when you compare Davante Adams at this stage of his career to Cooper Kupp last year, even when he was performing, we’re talking a pretty big difference - I thank Sean McVay for putting Kupp in the positions that he did - otherwise we would not have seen Kupp have the performances that he did during his legit fantasy run leading up to the fantasy playoffs. He did what he could, and then McVay finally had to simply rely on Puka at the end of the year.

Check out the full analysis on our IG!