Good morning everyone – we’ve officially made it to the 2024 regular season. Starting Thursday, there will be NFL football on a consistent basis all the way until February 😎

What’s in store:

• Hollywood Brown is OUT for the Chiefs’ season opener. 🤕 The door for Xavier Worthy to establish himself is officially open.

• The top Cowboys RB isn’t one of their veteran additions? Rico Dowdle has put in work and impressed beat reporters this offseason.

• Final review of this year’s training camp/53-man roster cutdown 📝Faraz looks back on some of the biggest headlines coming out of final tune-ups for the season

• Is George Pickens on track for his best season yet? Improvements to his current situation could make that possible.

• Chiefs WR Hollywood Brown officially ruled out for Thursday’s inaugural game vs Ravens, has chance to play Week 2

  • The news broke late last week that Brown wouldn’t be active in the Chiefs’ first game of the year against his former team, a result of a sternoclavicular injury he sustained earlier this preseason. With Brown sidelined, Patrick Mahomes will be without one of his newest weapons in a very difficult matchup against the stifling Ravens defense – but Chiefs offense certainly doesn’t lack teeth as a result. Rookie first-round WR Xavier Worthy is likely to see an uptick in snaps as long as Brown is out, while Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce will round out the receiving corps as two familiar targets for Mahomes. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported over the weekend that Hollywood could potentially return for Kansas City’s Week 2 matchup against the Bengals, so it doesn’t sound like the injury is expected to be anything long-term. However, with plenty of talent to fall back on in his absence, the Chiefs could look to let Brown recover for as long as possible before making his Chiefs debut. When he returns, he’ll profile as a solid WR3/flex option on what is likely to once again be one of the best offenses in the league with Mahomes and Andy Reid at the helm.

Check out Faraz’s latest appearance on the Reception Perception podcast!

• 49ers WR Ricky Pearsall placed on reserve/non-football injury list, will be out until at least Week 5

  • With Pearsall sidelined for at least the first four games of the season, the path towards relevance in an already loaded 49ers offense in 2024 becomes even more obstructed. Brandon Aiyuk is officially back after signing his four-year extension late last week, burying Pearsall on the depth chart – and presumably in the target share pecking order – behind Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey. Reports have emerged that Pearsall is expected to be alright (thankfully) following the incident over the weekend, and nothing has changed for his fantasy prospects in dynasty formats. However, his redraft stock could potentially take a hit given the time he’s slated to miss and an uphill battle for consistent snaps. The situation is similar to Commanders RB Brian Robinson’s two years ago after he was involved in a shooting incident of his own. Robinson was able to return in a limited capacity in Week 5 before being ramped up to what was a full workload for him at that point by Week 6. We’re wishing Pearsall the best in his recovery, of course, and it’ll be exciting to see him later this season when he makes his debut.

• Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle expected to lead the team in carries this season, per the Athletic’s Todd Archer

  • With fantasy drafts officially wrapping up this past weekend in preparation for Thursday’s kickoff, fantasy managers can look to grab Dowdle as both RB depth and a potential desperate flex play moving forward as the most vital running back on the Cowboys offense. Dowdle was solid in very limited work last year behind Tony Pollard, and with the Cowboys only bringing in two aged veterans in Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook, things seem to be shaping up nicely for Dowdle to be the most well-rounded back in Dallas. The lack of quality competition in the backfield has allowed Dowdle to be ‘the most explosive back’ this offseason and through training camp, per the Athletic’s Todd Archer. The Cowboys are likely to be one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league between their questionable RB room and heavy investment in No. 1 WR Ceedee Lamb, so fantasy managers shouldn’t draft Dowdle in anticipation of a solid weekly floor (or in having him in their lineup every week, ideally). However, the upside for Dowdle comes from his potential to return on investment at his very inexpensive price in drafts, even if it’s at an RB2 ceiling in a Cowboys offense expected to do plenty of scoring in 2024.

Former Broncos RB Samaje Perine released by Broncos, signs with Chiefs

• With Perine out in Denver, a 1-2 punch between Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin seems likely. Javonte had 47 receptions last year despite Perine getting 50 himself, so I’d expect a bump in targets for both RBs.  If Perine goes down, we’d project Audric Estime to be a near 1 for 1 replacement for Williams on early downs, with McLaughlin getting a bump in work.

• One of the main reasons for Jerick McKinnon’s bump in rankings was his projected use on passing downs. Unfortunately, Perine’s bread and butter is exactly that. We could see Perine end up as the Chiefs passing down and 2-minute back at some point, which can lower Pacheco’s ceiling. He’s still a RB1, but similar role to last year is more possibly now once Perine gets acclimated.

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Packers RB AJ Dillon out for season with neck injury

• Marshawn Lloyd also avoided the PUP, but he hasn’t practiced almost all of camp, so it will take him some time to get up to speed. For now, Emanuel Wilson will be Josh Jacobs’ backup, but expect Lloyd to overtake Wilson at some point in the first few weeks of the season. Jacobs should see a big workload during the first few weeks of the season, but once Lloyd is ramped up, Jacobs’ overall workload can come down a bit.

49ers RB Elijah Mitchell out for season after being placed on season-ending IR

• Jordan Mason becomes the clear RB2 behind CMC. 49ers beat Jake Hutchinson told me that the Mitchell likely would’ve been the primary between the 20s back, while Mason would be the red zone back. Looks like Mason just got a lot more valuable. He makes a great last round pick and bench stash regardless of whether you have CMC or not. By the way, rookie Isaac Guerendo hasn’t been healthy during camp, and just got hurt again.

How should we react to Kyren Williams returning punts?

• Sean McVay really likes Kyren Williams, and wants him to touch the ball as much as possible, and Williams did start last year returning punts. The Rams will average a little more than one punt return per game, if that, so this shouldn’t worry anyone. With that being said, I don’t think McVay wants to run his guy through the ground. I wouldn’t expect Williams to lead the NFL in touches/game again this year, but he’s still a good second round pick as the primary back on a good offense.

Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks left on PUP, will miss first four games of the 2024 regular season

• Panthers are taking it slow with Brooks, and he should be close to 100% once he returns. Expect a ramp up period, with him potentially (and likely) taking over the backfield by Week 7 or 8. In the first four weeks, expect Chuba Hubbard to have a stranglehold on the backfield during Brooks’ absence; RB2 weeks are very possible.

Pickens has established himself at the very least as one of the game’s premier deep threats (his 18.1 yards per reception ranks first among wide receivers to run at least 300 routes in 2023), but 2024 presents the third-year receiver with the opportunity to take the next step both in real life and in fantasy football.

Both of the biggest snags he’s been hitting as a fantasy receiver since entering the league in 2022 have seemingly disappeared or at the very least been sufficiently addressed, with Diontae Johnson (0.25 targets per route run in 2023) out the door for Carolina and Kenny Pickett being replaced with the combination of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Pickens has yet to register a target share over 21% in his career after posting 20.8% last season and just 14.7% in 2022, but with Johnson out of the picture and no obvious additions to the WR room to be concerned about, Pickens could reasonably see that number jump comfortably into the WR2-worthy range (22+%) in 2024.

Despite a reliance on the big play (his 0.081 first downs per route run rank 5th-lowest out of 34 receivers to earn at least 100 targets last year), his 2.25 yards per route run suggests that with a larger, more diverse share of the target distribution available in 2024, Pickens could make a push for his first top-20 overall finish of his career. With that being said, it remains to be seen whether Pickens can be relied on as a target magnet at all levels of the field.

Of course, Pickens’ ultimate ceiling could be dictated by volume in what’s likely to be a run-heavy offense with former Falcons HC Arthur Smith calling plays in Pittsburgh; the Falcons ran pass plays at the 3rd-lowest rate in 2023, behind only Pittsburgh (2nd-lowest) and San Francisco (lowest). WIth Russell Wilson drawing the start in Week 1, Pickens should enjoy a notable upgrade under center even if Wilson’s best days are behind him. That, combined with a more top heavy target share, has Pickens on course to play in the best environment he’s had in his career in 2024.