Reviewing Week 16's WR Matchups ✍️

Hard to imagine that Derrick Henry, of all players, would have a fall off over the second half of the season of this kind. The matchup isn’t terrible against the Steelers this week, but it’s been a while since we’ve seen Henry reach his ceiling from the first nine games of the year.

• 49ers RB Isaac Guerendo misses practice Wednesday to open week with hamstring injury

  • After logging just one limited practice on a short week ahead of TNF in Week 15, Guerendo proceeded to be the only 49ers RB to touch the ball in any capacity in a game to forget for fantasy managers. That full workload was reassuring for those who were planning to rely on him in the semi-finals this week, but he’s since popped up on the 49ers injury report as a DNP with a new hamstring injury. Hamstring injuries are, to put it plainly, not good news at all – and especially not at this point in the fantasy playoffs. It’s only Wednesday and Guerendo went into last week’s game banged up, so there’s a chance that this could just be the 49ers taking it easy with their newly anointed starting running back. However, if Guerendo would continue to miss practices and ultimately be ruled out for Week 16 against the Dolphins, fantasy managers would have to go all the way down to the bottom of the rabbit hole to pluck Patrick Taylor off of waivers as a potential low-RB2 start. If it would get to that point, it would be tough to stomach starting Taylor in what will be the second-most important week of the fantasy season. RBs Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Izzy Abanikanda would be the deep waiver additions after Taylor, though it would probably take another injury to Taylor (which can’t be ruled out at this point) for either of them to have any significant value in lineups.

• Browns WR Cedric Tillman remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol ahead of Week 16 game vs Bengals

  • Perhaps Tillman caught wind of the news that HC Kevin Stefanski is planning to start Dorian Thompson-Robinson over Jameis Winston, and in a show of protest against the decision, remained in the protocol. Whatever the reason is for Tillman remaining in the protocol three weeks after originally sustaining the injury, it seems like there’s a legitimate chance that he could miss his fourth-straight game as a result. It’s early in the week though, so managers should monitor his status heading into the weekend before writing him off against the Bengals. Even if he’s active, it would be hard to recommend him as anything more than a flex play with DTR drawing the start over Jameis Winston, as is the case with the likes of Elijah Moore and David Njoku. Jerry Jeudy has the highest probability of maintaining his value as a potential WR3, but there’s a good chance that the Browns could be squandering an excellent matchup against Cincinnati in the fantasy playoff semifinals.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs MIN

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba is officially the WR to start in the Seahawks offense, and he might be the only pass catcher worth starting at this point with D.K. Metcalf averaging only 9.8 points per game since Seattle’s bye in Week 10. Compare that to JSN’s 18.3 in that same span (and Tyler lockett’s 3.1), and JSN’s team leading 27% target share, and it’s clear that he can be locked into lineups each week as a low-WR1 start.

• The matchup against the Vikings on paper is a good one, with Minnesota ranking top-5 in receiving yards, receptions, touchdowns, and fantasy points per game allowed season long and over the past four games. JSN has had at least 74 yards in each of his past six games, but that’s been with Geno Smith at quarterback. We’ll see if Geno’s able to go for Week 16, but if it’s Sam Howell under center, JSN would likely slide into the WR2 rankings for the semi-finals.

Packers WRs vs NO

• The top three Packers WRs (Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed) all have exactly one top-12 finish apiece in the five games since Green Bay’s bye, and they all occurred in separate weeks from each other. As a result, they’re all pretty much flex plays at this point with the distribution between them for targets being so evenly spread out.

• They have a great matchup this week against the Saints, who are very banged up – they’re allowing the 5th-most receiving yards per game, the sixth-most receptions, and the 5th-most fantasy points. Romeo Doubs not only has the advantage as the top receiver when it comes to route participation and target share, but his matchup on the right side is the best of all Green Bay’s receivers: New Orleans is allowing the most points to receivers on the right side and the 2nd-most over the past four weeks.

Ceedee Lamb vs TB

• So it turns out that the Cooper Rush experience hasn’t been as atrocious as it looked like it was going to be after his 45 passing yard egg-laying in Week 11 against the Eagles. Since then in games where Lamb didn’t exit the game early due to injury, Lamb is averaging 11 targets, 20.9 points per game, and finished as a top-14 wide receiver or better in each of them.

• This is the best matchup Lamb will have the rest of the season against the Buccaneers, who are allowing the 4th-most receptions, 10th-most receiving yards, and 7th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Tampa Bay has gotten better at defending wide receivers in recent weeks, but volume like Lamb has been getting – coupled with improved play from Cooper Rush – should make him a safe WR1 start again in Week 16.

Courtland Sutton vs LAC

• Sutton has had at least 8 targets in every game he’s played since his cardio game in Week 7, but last week was dangerously close to being his first dud since then – it took a last minute touchdown from Bo Nix to rescue him from what would have been a 5-point performance against the Colts. Luckily, he was able to come through at the end of the day, and his utilization continues to point towards a wide receiver who can be trusted in lineups as a strong WR2 moving forward. 

• Despite being a tough matchup in real life, the Chargers defense is allowing the 5th-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers as well as the 12th-most fantasy points this year. That number jumps to the 10th-most over the past four games, too, and with no other pass catchers in the offense notching higher than a 13% target share, it should all be Courtland Sutton’s for the taking in what should be a quality matchup against the Chargers on Thursday night.

Brian Thomas Jr. vs LV

• All Brian Thomas Jr. has done since Trevor Lawrence went down in three games since their Week 12 bye is average a 31% target share (12 targets), 47% air yards share, and 22.6 points per game. After having no games with double digit targets before the bye, BTJ has gone three straight games with 10 or more targets and had his first double-digit reception game last week against the Jets (who had Sauce Gardner, btw). 

• The Raiders were, on paper, a much tougher defense to contend with earlier in the season than they are now. After allowing the 9th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers overall this season, they’ve flipped and allowed the 9th-most over the past four games. Regardless of matchup, though, Thomas belongs in lineups as a fringe WR1 – he’s my current WR10.