Is Rhamondre Stevenson's price right? ⚖️

Friendly reminder that it’s already mid-July. Training camp is right around the corner, and we’re just two weeks away from being through with the dog days of the fantasy offseason!

What’s in store:

• A ‘clear lead back’ has emerged in the Chargers backfield 👀. Let’s just say life after Austin Ekeler is going to look a lot different.

• Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, or… Cordarrelle Patterson? The former Falcon followed Arthur Smith to Pittsburgh, and it seems like he could get some preferential treatment.

• Price analysis: Rhamondre Stevenson. Faraz and Zach go back and forth discussing his potential role and how it fits his current ADP.

• The next top-5 running back is… Not going to be revealed in this teaser. But you can keep reading if you want to find out!

• The Athletic’s Daniel Popper says that in his eyes, RB Gus Edwards is the ‘clear lead back’ in Los Angeles

  • This echoes the sentiment that Faraz has been pounding the table for ahead of the 2024 season – a good sign for drafters looking to take advantage of his comically low RB36 ADP. Despite rumblings that Edwards has been dealing with an injury, all signs seem to indicate that he’s cleared that hurdle and is entering training camp with a full head of steam and the edge over the rest of the competition. Popper also noted that barring any injury setbacks, Dobbins profiles as the Chargers’ RB2 over rookie 5th-rounder Kimani Vidal. We’ve beat the conversation to death, but it bears noting once again: the Chargers are likely to be much more dependent on the run game with HC Jim Harbaugh at the controls, and Edwards could potentially take on the brunt of the early down/goal line work this season. He blew his previous career high in touchdowns scored out of the water in 2023, posting 13 TDs in Baltimore’s run-first system. In a similar system in LA after being reunited with former OC Greg Roman, double-digit touchdowns isn’t out of the question for Edwards as one of the most affordable running backs available. Unless things change in the next few weeks during training camp, fantasy managers will want to strike now before the iron gets hot and Edwards’ price rises as we move into draft season.

• Free agent RB Leonard Fournette has re-signed his agent, anticipates joining a team ahead of kickoff

  • Fournette’s last meaningful action came all the way back in 2022 with the Buccaneers when he was fueled by 83 targets from Tom Brady. That receiving work was enough to carry him to a very fantasy relevant top-12 finish in PPR formats, but things bottomed out in 2023 with the former LSU running back tallying just 12 attempts for 40 scoreless yards with the Bills. Entering his age 29 season, not only are there very few potential openings on rosters throughout the league with training camp raring to get underway, but Fournette’s best days are also well in the rearview. While he could likely still contribute to a team in a useful way (his agent says he’s in the best shape of his life), the league doesn’t seem to view it that way with Fournette being unable to catch on with any team last season. Whether or not Fournette gets another shot at taking the field remains to be seen, but regardless of where he goes, it’s highly unlikely that he takes on any sort of meaningful work barring a mountain of injuries to players ahead of him on the depth chart. Even the most RB-needy teams (think Raiders, Cowboys) have young talent or veterans already to shoulder the load in their respective offenses, so don’t be surprised if the leaves start falling off the trees as we near kickoff and Fournette remains without home in the NFL.

• Cordarrelle Patterson will ‘likely have a bigger role’ than just special teams in 2024 with Pittsburgh, per the Athletic’s Mark Kaboly

  • Patterson followed his former HC Arthur Smith to Pittsburgh as a refugee of the frustrating Falcons’ offense, and despite the fact the Steelers have two perfectly capable running backs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren already on the roster, Kaboly suggests that Patterson could rotate into the backfield in a similar fashion to his time in Atlanta. That would be no surprise with Arthur Smith calling the plays this season for the Steelers, especially when you consider the fact that Patterson was able to steal 62 opportunities of his own working behind Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. The ramifications of this report don’t boost Cordarrelle Patterson’s stock at all – he still shouldn’t be considered in drafts at all – but it’s worth keeping in mind for those hoping to get a piece of the Steelers’ backfield this season. Warren and Harris are likely to continue usurp one another in 2024, but the potential addition of a third back into the mix could result in further deflated production for both ball carriers. This is, of course, merely a single report ahead of training camp on an offense that has all kinds of unknowns to account for, but given the Steelers’ tendency to feed their running backs, any possible redistribution of work is worth noting. Fantasy managers can continue to draft both Harris and Warren at their respective prices until otherwise noted.

Faraz: I want to see how involved Antonio Gibson's gonna be in camp – and we'll see if Rhamondre Stevenson's going to be a three down back since that's where his value has come in the past. Will Gibson be running routes on early downs? That would obviously sap Rhamondre's value, and the Patriots are projected to be one of the lowest scoring offenses in the league. If Rhamondre just ends up being an early down back on a bad offense, I don't know how much I like his price as the RB20 off the board. And then there’s Drake Maye; how much is he going to be checking down to his running backs? He's someone who can tend to tuck and run it… he's a powerful quarterback, and he won’t shy away from using his legs.

Now, we could have a veteran lead the way there at quarterback. Jacoby Brissett is back in New England and has filled in admirably over the past few seasons, so we'll see what ends up happening. Personally, though, I feel like Rhamondre’s appropriately priced because of the quality of the offense and because of a potential role change compared to what he saw last year.

Now, the money the Patriots paid Stevenson might suggest that Rhamondre’s the guy, right? I can see that happening too, and I understand where you're coming from there. That's probably what you're thinking, right?

Zach: Right. That's the biggest thing that confirmed it for me that Gibson isn’t someone they’re going to straight up be replacing Stevenson on the field with on a regular basis. It signals more that Gibson will be utilized in a third down role, and even then he might not come in for every third down. When Rhamondre signed his contract, that secured Rhamondre’s workload in my mind. He’s going to get touches.

Of course, the concerns about the quality of the offense are valid, as well as the question of whether or not Drake Maye is going to be checking it down as much compared to Mac Jones. They’re two polar opposites at the quarterback position, and I don’t think Maye is going to play nearly as scared as Jones did.

But let’s also keep in mind that with Rhamondre Stevenson’s situation, the Patriots were already bad last season. In fact, does it get much worse than what we saw from New England last season on the offensive side of the ball? Stevenson managed to squeak out 12 PPR points per game on that offense, and that’s perfectly fine for me in an RB2 type role. I’m not drafting Stevenson to be my RB1, and at his RB20 price tag, I don’t need him to be. Unless Gibson has a coming out party and is a revelation in the Patriots offense, I have to figure Stevenson will carry the bulk of the load and be just as productive, if not more productive than last season.

Jerick McKinnon played an underrated role for the Chiefs over the last two seasons as their primary pass-catcher out of the backfield. He’s no longer on the roster, and that’s going to make a big difference for Pacheco in 2024. In games without McKinnon last year, Pacheco averaged 21.1 PPR fantasy points/game. That would’ve been good for the overall RB3 on the year.

And it wasn’t just a handful of fluke performances or heavy TD dependence; his utilization without McKinnon was also fantastic. Pacheco was used a workhorse, averaging 21.6 opportunities/game for 97.7 total yards/game along with 1.2 TDs/game.

As a reminder, here’s what the depth chart looks like behind Pacheco right now:

RB2: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB3: Deneric Prince

RB4: Keaontay Ingram

Do any of those names scare you? It’s safe to say Pacheco is the guy. He was already pretty efficient, too; among 23 RBs with 200+ carries in 2023, he ranked 7th in yards over expectation/att and 9th in yards after contact/att.

And among those same RBs, he ranked 6th in targets/route run. If McKinnon is gone, we should expect more routes - and more targets. Especially in the red zone, where among all RBs, Pacheco ranked Top-10 in both red zone rushing attempts and red zone targets. McKinnon himself had 7 red zone targets to Pacheco’s 8. That’s a clear opportunity add for Pacheco to assume.

On an offense that is set to improve in 2024, Pacheco is a smash pick at his RB11 price tag.