A run-heavy offense in Seattle? 🫣

The scouting combine is next week! Just one step closer to the draft… and free agency… and OTA’s…

What’s in store:

• Tell me if you’ve heard this before: Seattle wants to rely on the ground game 🙄. Mike Macdonald has spoken, and that noise you just heard was JSN dynasty managers cringing.

• Zay Flowers has investigation into alleged incident suspended. Fantasy managers can get back to their regularly scheduled programming.

• Don’t let the narrative convince you on a player. We see players beat the narratives assigned to them all the time.

• Did you know that the Falcons have a QB problem? If by some ridiculously low chance you didn’t, allow Kyle Pitts’ 2023 season to demonstrate.

• The Justin Fields saga rages on, Bears QB says he’d prefer to remain in Chicago but also recognizes he ‘ain’t got no control over it’

  • The range of outcomes for the former Ohio State signal caller for 2024 are through the roof – but it would be a surprise if the Bears (who are currently sitting on not one, but TWO top-10 selections in this year’s draft, including the number one overall pick) pass up on the available talent at the top of this year’s QB class. Not only could Chicago’s brass be more enamored with the skillsets of a Caleb Williams or a Jayden Daniels over Justin Fields, but the reset on their contract situation at QB is very appealing for a team that is loaded with draft capital and cap space, to boot. Fields has flashed in his three years with the Bears but has not strung together the wins to buy him the grace from the team he’s clearly lacking in the current situation. Fields’ fantasy production peaked in 2022 when he rushed for 1143 yards and eight touchdowns, but injuries last year and struggles in the games he played in could have him set to play his fourth year in the NFL elsewhere. Despite the turmoil of his circumstances, Fields certainly deserves another shot elsewhere as a starter and could perform much better with A) competent coaching and B) stronger, more complete talent around him.

• Seahawks new HC Mike MacDonald says Seattle will look to emphasize the run game in 2024

  • The team with the three-headed monster of D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jackson Smith-Njigba intends to lean heavily on the run game in 2024. Not ideal. Granted, it’s only February and Geno Smith took a notable step back in performance in 2023, but the hope is that this is just coach speak from a defensive-minded head coach that will leave his offense in the hands of their new offensive coordinator. Could OC Ryan Grubb’s pass-heavy schemes he’s bringing in from Washington clash with a run-first philosophy Macdonald is carrying over from his time in Baltimore? Time will tell, but the Seahawks have personnel at quarterback that lends itself more to the pass than the run. This is, however, great news for the Seahawks running backs – but on an individual level, the needle doesn’t move much for both Charbonnet and Walker simply because they’ll be vulturing any additional work added to their plates from each other at the end of the day. After regressing a bit on the offensive side of the ball in 2023, Seattle’s offense in 2024 will be one to watch – especially with the turnover at almost every coaching position following the removal of Pete Carroll.

• Ravens WR Zay Flowers has police investigation into reported domestic incident suspended, faces no charges

  • The incident landed in the headlines a little over two weeks ago, but the investigation has since been suspended as of this past Tuesday. With no football on the schedule for the next six months (😢), we’d be getting ahead of ourselves to speculate as to whether or not Flowers could be handed a suspension or punishment of any kind at this point. However, the Ravens first round wide receiver from this past year’s draft reportedly faces no charges at this time, which should set him up to roll into the offseason scot-free. Flowers had an up and down rookie year in the Ravens passing offense, at times disappearing early in the season (11.4 PPR points per game from Weeks 1-10) – but he was able to turn things around for the stretch run (15.8 PPR points per game from Week 11-18). With Odell Beckham Jr. set to be a free agent, Flowers could be in for an expanded role in 2024 if the Ravens don’t add any big names via free agency/the draft. The bottom line: fantasy managers need not worry about the investigation at this point in the offseason.

Be careful with the narrative you place on players for fantasy. It could hurt you. Here are a few you might remember…

Remember when Evan Engram couldn’t catch?

He had the most receptions of any TE this season, and the 2nd most among all TEs over the last two seasons behind Travis Kelce.

Remember when Christian McCaffrey was injury prone?

He was the fantasy RB2 amidst a mid-season trade in 2022, and the overall RB1 in 2023.

Remember when AJ Brown was injury prone?

He played 33 of 34 games in his last two regular seasons, and was a Top-10 fantasy WR during that span.

Remember when Lamar Jackson wasn’t good enough in the passing game to be a fantasy star?

As soon as he was handed the keys, overall fantasy QB1 in 2019. He was the fantasy QB3 in 2023.

Remember when Keenan Allen was injury prone going into his 2017 season?

In his next 5 seasons, he played in 78 of 81 games. He’s missed some time after his age-30 season, but entering 2017, he’s had a Top-10 finish in 6 of his last 7 seasons.

Remember when Diontae Johnson couldn’t catch? He led the league in drops in 2020.

He had 107 catches the following year - 5th in the NFL that year.

Remember when Jalen Hurts wasn’t good enough in the passing game to be a fantasy star?

He was the overall QB6 in 2021, the overall QB1 in 2022, and the overall QB2 in 2023.

Remember when D’Andre Swift was injury prone?

He racked up 268 touches in 16 of 16 possible games in 2023.

The narrative going into 2024? Anthony Richardson isn’t good enough in the passing game to be a fantasy star.

He showed a lot more than I thought he would in limited playing time last season, and scored the most fantasy points per dropback of any QB last year.

How do you know there’s been a quarterback problem in Atlanta since the twilight of Matt Ryan’s career? The answer is simple: Just watch any of their games over the past four years. The eye test has been atrocious regardless of who’s lined up under center in that time frame, with Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke comprising one of the shoddiest bridge QB platoons the league has seen – but the effects of that poor QB play (and a mind-numbingly bad head coach, we might add) have absolutely decimated the talent the Falcons boast on offense, including that of unicorn TE Kyle Pitts.

Despite the traveling red and black clown show of QBs that graced football fields around the league in 2023, Pitts’ raw utilization data is not only not horrific, but it’s actually tops in the league – his 25% air yards share was the highest and his 18% target share was 9th among all tight ends. Was Arthur Smith actually using him correctly???

Hardly – but that’s a discussion for another day. There was just one issue, though: the QBs could throw the ball in his general direction, but hardly ever on target. Among all tight ends to run at least 200 routes, Kyle Pitts’ 70% catchable target rate ranked dead last. It’s no surprise then that Pitts averaged just 8 PPR points per game in 2023 and never managed to score more than 16 PPR points in a game.

The offseason is often a time where hope is renewed and optimism is at an all-time-high across the league – but unless the Falcons upgrade at quarterback, Kyle Pitts is going to be stuck in purgatory relative to the loft expectations the fantasy community has had for him through his three-year career.