Sam Howell Could Break Fantasy 💥

Another day, another fantasy star going down. Don’t look now, but Cooper Kupp has had three different injuries/setbacks in less than a year…

What’s in store:

• Cooper Kupp suffers a setback in his recovery 😬  Who’s going to be catching passes in LA if he can’t suit up?

• Can Sam Howell burst onto the fantasy QB1 scene? He’s got a big believer in Faraz.

• Could Tony Pollard REALLY be the overall RB1? Is it a real possibility, or is it just more jedi mind tricks from the in-house Cowboys fan?

• The final verdict on the Jaguars backfield. Tyler delivers his ruling on Travis Etienne’s role in the offense.

• Rams WR Cooper Kupp suffers setback in recovery from hamstring injury, listed as “day-to-day”

  • Translation: He’s probably week-to-week. Kupp is shaping up to be a landmine in the first round if he doesn’t get right. There are several upside players I’d take over Kupp at this point, but if you already started your draft with Kupp, I’d sit tight and maybe pray a little. I’d think Kupp is at considerable risk to miss Week 1. Let’s hope this doesn’t turn into a Keenan Allen situation. The earliest I’d consider drafting Kupp at this point is the 2-3 turn. -Faraz

• Saints RB Kendre Miller suffers hamstring injury, status remains unknown for Week 1

  • After clearing the first hurdle thrown at him this offseason in the form of a knee sprain, Miller now faces the tall task of getting right with a hamstring injury just 10 days away from Week 1. With Kamara suspended for the first three games of the season, Miller had a golden opportunity to establish himself in the Saints backfield ahead of free agent addition Jamaal Williams. Instead, it looks like it will be the Jamaal Williams show in New Orleans in Week 1, barring a second freak comeback from injury by Miller. Even if Miller would be ready to suit up two Sundays from now, it’s hard to imagine him handling a full workload – especially not in the amount he would have received if he were to go into the season 100% healthy.

• Chiefs WRs Justyn Ross and Rashee Rice to begin the season as “package players” with potential to become every down WRs down the stretch

  • Despite solid off-seasons and preseasons by both Chiefs WRs, this has been the expectation for them heading into 2023. However, it’s encouraging to hear that there is a path to more playing time for both players in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, making them both worth keeping a close eye on late in drafts and on waivers, depending on league size and format. The Chiefs WR room, while crowded, does not have a clear No. 1 entering 2023 – that spot could be up for grabs, and whoever wins that role could return serious value.

• Dolphins RB Jeff Wilson Jr. lands on injured reserve to open the season, will miss at least four games

  • That escalated quickly. With no prior reports indicating any type of injury for Wilson, the Dolphins surprised the fantasy world by taking the presumed top runner in their backfield and shelving him for the beginning of 2023. HC Mike McDaniel didn’t exactly inspire confidence in Wilson’s return any time soon this season, either, saying that he “wouldn’t be surprised” to see Wilson return this season. At this point, the damage is done in the Dolphins backfield, and fantasy managers should turn their attention to Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane as potential values now at already deflated draft prices. For those who have already drafted Wilson, he can be stashed on injured reserve, but should not take priority over bigger names.

• Sam Howell, QB - Washington Commanders

  • Look back at what Howell did at North Carolina before he lost his weapons, and what he was forced to do? Run the ball. He has that sneaky rushing ability - that’s going to help. He has the talent, and we had a glimpse of it at the end of last year. We also got a glimpse of it this preseason, and I’ve been very intrigued since Eric Bienemy came over to help him take that next step in his 2nd year.

  • He was drafted way too late in the NFL Draft, and I think he has the weapons to elevate him when he needs it. Terry McLaurin has the turf toe - that’s not great, and I have a little bit more hesitation for Howell because of that, but apparently, McLaurin can be fine a few weeks into the season. He has Jahan Dotson, who seems to be blooming into a potential high-end WR, and we can’t forget about Curtis Samuel, who’s also a legit weapon in the slot. He’s also got Antonio Gibson out of the backfield, and Bienemy’s system is going to help him.

  • This is a long shot obviously, and I could’ve gone with someone like Lamar Jackson, who I love this year, but I wanted to go with someone who I think can make a big leap, and at the end of the year, could potentially be a fringe QB1 fantasy option.

• Pat Freiermuth, TE - Pittsburgh Steelers

  • I look for a few things for a TE breakout, and one of those things is a player that’s making progress throughout their career… Freiermuth’s going into this third year, which is when we tend to look for these breakouts for TEs.

  • In his first year - 60 catches for 497 yards; 2nd season, 63 catches for 732 yards - nice improvement there. Freiermuth is 6th all-time in receptions among TEs over their first two seasons in the NFL. Some of the names ahead of him? Gronk, George Kittle, Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez.

  • He was only behind Kelce, Andrews, and Kittle in yards/route run last year among qualifying tight ends… and with the way Kenny Pickett is looking, this offense can take a step forward, and Freiermuth can combine his ability, the breakout, and the ascending offense into a potential Top-5 finish this year at the position.

  • I still think there’s a good chance that Freiermuth leads George Pickens in target share with Diontae Johnson being the clear 1 as he did last year.

• Maybe it’s just because I’m the resident Cowboys fan on the podcast, but I’m all in on Tony Pollard for 2023. I’d even venture as far as to say that he’s been underdrafted given his upside, which I think is higher than Saquon Barkley’s and Nick Chubb’s. And he was coming off the board at the top of the second round all offseason!

• The reason why is well documented. Of the top 8 fantasy running backs in fantasy points per game last year, only one of them - Pollard - finished with less than 50% of inside the 5 carries on the season. Pollard saw just 28% – and still scored 9 touchdowns! Only 2 of them were on carries inside the 5.

• Zeke is gone, and he was the only thing standing between Pollard and a goal line role. Even if Pollard’s number jumps to 50% of carries inside the 5, it will still be double what he’s seen in his career. We could see Pollard being delivered to easy touchdowns for the first time in his career.

• And it’s not like Pollard has to be touchdown dependent, either. He’s arguably the premier home run hitter at RB – his 5.22 yards per carry ranked second last year among RBs with 150+ attempts, and he ranked first in runs of 10 and 20+ yards, and 3rd in runs of 30+ yards. He was also first in yards after contact per attempt, which says Pollard is capable of getting it done by going around or through you.

• Plus, he’s more than an asset in the receiving game despite low usage (a result of his low snap share). He was first in yards per reception last season, and despite the fact that he only saw 52% of snaps, he was the RB8 in points per game

• If that number goes anywhere close to 70%, he’s got overall RB1 upside, and that’s something Faraz “boldly predicted” for this season - and it might not really be that bold!

After missing his entire rookie season to a foot injury, Travis Etienne saw a very strong “sophomore season with over 1,400 total yards and 5 TDs, finishing as the RB17 in PPR scoring.

He saw a seamless transition back to football, dominating the Jaguars’ backfield duties, especially after the departure of James Robinson mid-season, drawing 74% of the backfield snaps in 2022 with over 60% of the backfield touches.

Unfortunately, all signs point to Jacksonville wanting to reduce that workload in 2023 (in an attempt to preserve him), drafting Tank Bigsby in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. Bigsby will likely serve as a change-of-pace/backup for Etienne, and his tough playing style will likely command a majority of the short-yardage and goal-line work with the potential to eat into Etienne’s early-down workload.

I absolutely love the potential for Etienne as a player given his versatility and talent, but the opportunity doesn’t appear that it will be there for him to reach his ceiling, at least for fantasy purposes.

Currently going in the late-2nd/3rd round as a low-RB1/high-RB2 (RB12 on ADP and ECR), I am going to pass on Etienne relative to the position. I don’t mind his overall draft price in that late-2nd to early-3rd round range, but him being drafted as a fringe RB1 is very worrisome with a likely reduced workload in 2023.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

With Cooper Kupp going down to injury and – apparently – having trouble making his comeback, fantasy managers will likely be without the best fantasy WR when healthy heading into 2023. Whether you’ve already drafted and now have a Cooper Kupp-sized hole on your roster, or if you were planning to draft him and now have to move him out of your first round targets, the effects of uncertainty with his tender hammy will be felt for weeks to come.

Outside of the last game that he played and was injured in – he scored 2.9 points – the last time Cooper Kupp scored less than 11 PPR points in a game was all the way back in Week 15 of the 2020 regular season. Since then, Kupp has started and finished 31 straight games without dropping below double-digit scoring… that’s almost two whole seasons!

There’s no timetable right now as to how long Kupp could be out – or whether he’ll be out at all – but once he returns, there’s no reason to expect anything less from the 2021 scoring leader than the consistent excellent production we’ve seen from him. On an offense that has just about nobody else at receiver, Kupp can still be a valuable pick in drafts as his ADP will likely slide.