Singletary = Saquon? 🤯

What’s in store:

• Could the Steelers not be finished adding to their offense? The Athletic’s Mark Kaboly says Pittsburgh could add to one position before the regular season kicks off…

• Devin Singletary doing his best Saquon Barkley impression. 🥸 He’s reportedly been as advertised in camp so far.

• Vikings continue to ease rookie J.J. McCarthy into action. At this rate, it seems like Sam Darnold will draw the start in Week 1.

• A little trivia to boost your Tuesday! Can you guess the player we’re talking about in this edition of stat of the day?

• The Athletic’s Mark Kaboly believes that the Steelers will look to add a ‘legit No. 2 WR’ prior to the start of the 2024 season

  • Does this mean that the Steelers view and are treating WR George Pickens as the official No. 1 receiver moving forward? Given the current state of the roster, that is likely the case. However, any significant addition to the WR room, as Kaboly speculates could happen, would have the potential to rattle Pickens from his post atop the depth chart depending on the notoriety of the pass catcher Pittsburgh brings in. Rumors have swirled in recent weeks about a potential acquisition of 49ers star Brandon Aiyuk via trade, who would almost assuredly wrestle away the biggest slide of the target share pie in 2024. However, the Steelers could be looking to make an inexpensive addition to the room that doesn’t involve sacrificing future draft capital – in which case, Pickens’ grip on the No. 1 spot would likely remain tight. WRs Hunter Renfrow, Michael Thomas, and Russell Gage rank among the most notable pass catchers available via free agency, all of whom would have minimal effect on the workload Pickens receives in 2024. The current battle for the No. 2 spot in Pittsburgh’s offense features veteran WR Van Jefferson and rookie third-rounder Roman Wilson, who will both likely be relegated to the third option at best in Arthur Smith’s TE-friendly offensive scheme. Barring a blockbuster move, any addition to the Steelers WR room is likely to be ancillary.

• Giants RB Devin Singletary impressing early in Giants camp, HC Brian Daboll says; ‘knows the offense inside and out’

  • Singletary also compared his playmaking ability on Monday to Saquon Barkley, who’s shoes he will attempt to fill in a toothless Giants offense in 2024. It would be disingenuous to cast off what was largely a productive 2023 season in Houston that saw him amass over 1000 yards from scrimmage, but Singletary wasn’t notably efficient in any category and faces a significant downgrade in the talent around him. The Giants offensive line in 2023 graded out as PFF’s third-worst run blocking unit in the NFL, which will make Singletary’s mission to prove that he can be mentioned in the same sentence as Barkley that much more difficult. The good news for Singletary: the competition for the lead role is relatively low-profile besides 5th-round pick and potential sleeper Tyrone Tracy out of Purdue. Daboll and Singletary have familiarity with each other from their time in Buffalo (2019-2021), making it likely that Singletary gets the first crack at work through training camp and into the early regular season. He’s the current RB32 in Underdog best ball drafts, making him a relatively low-risk swing at value in the late-9th/early-10th round.

• Vikings want to ‘take things slow’, with rookie first-round QB J.J. McCarthy, per the Athletic’s Alec Lewis

  • This report is consistent with what we’ve heard over the past month since Minnesota selected the former Michigan QB in the first round of April’s draft. At this point, it seems like it’ll take an injury or a complete breakdown in camp from Sam Darnold to thrust McCarthy into the starting role for the Vikings, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for McCarthy’s long-term prospects (look no further than the Packers’ draft-and-develop strategy since the days of Favre). However, that means in the short term that journeyman QB Sam Darnold will be the quarterback to target for 2024. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be drafting Darnold at all in 1QB formats, but he’ll be worth a look in 2QB and superflex formats thanks to an excellent supporting cast that features the recently extended Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, and eventually T.J. Hockenson, who’s coming off of a torn ACL. Despite operating with backup quarterbacks under center for the better half of the 2023 season, HC Kevin O’Connell still deployed an offense that passed the ball at the 3rd-highest rate last year. That suggests that he’ll maintain that pass-heavy gameplan despite a less than ideal QB situation, which could allow Darnold to have some sneaky streaming valye in 2024.

There’s been a lot of talk about George Pickens and how he can potentially thrive with a new QB - he’s even talked about his limitations because of his QB - and now, he doesn’t have to contend with a true target earner like Diontae Johnson.

But is Pickens set to break out as the now #1 WR for Pittsburgh? Maybe. But I think that would be a pretty big assumption. I like to target receivers in dynasty who don’t have to depend on the big play - and that’s really what Pickens’ calling card is. Listen, his first two years in the league - very productive, admittedly in a not so amazing offensive situation - 800 yards as a rookie, 1100 yards in his second year. 

But how much is his situation improving this year? Is Arthur Smith’s offense bring any excitement for the pass game? Not really. He couldn’t find ways to get more talented WRs like AJ Brown and Drake London to have big seasons. And how much of an improvement is Russell Wilson going to be? Justin Fields got the most out of DJ Moore last year, but DJ Moore is a much more talented WR than George Pickens. Pickens is a very good field stretcher, he’s one of the best contested catch WRs in the NFL, and I think he is clearly the best WR on that Steelers offense and will demand a nice target share - maybe even hit that 25% mark in his third year - but on a low-volume pass offense, with a non-ideal QB situation once again, I think you can find the George Pickens stans in your league - because there are those people who think Pickens can be an elite receiver in the NFL - let them have him.

2.25 yards/route run for Pickens last year - that was really good. That ranked 16th among all WRs with 100+ targets. But among the Top-20 WRs in yards/route run, he was the only WR to have less than 0.1 first downs/route - what does that mean? It means that he’s really dependent on those big plays, and that he could be due for a regression, especially after leading the league with 18.1 yards/reception. That’s not a sustainable number at all. He also had the lowest targets/route run rate among those WRs as well - so while Pickens can be a very good receiver, I’m not sure we’re going to see that huge jump that many people might think he can make this year as the Steeler’s #1 WR, and it’s very possible we see yet another boom/bust type of fantasy season as a receiver who’s very dependent on those big plays - give me the WRs who will be getting a lot more opportunity at all levels of the field - I don’t think that’s Pickens’ game, and I think many might think he can turn into that guy.

You can buy Mark Andrews for George Pickens, you can get a 1st next year for Pickens if you aren’t competing, and I’m not opposed to getting guys who have the upside to be target earners underneath on top of having big play ability like Ladd McConkey and Brian Thomas Jr with a little more sprinkled in given Pickens has proved that he already belongs in the NFL. Maybe aim to get a Tee Higgins - or a Rashee Rice + a little more thrown in while his value’s down, you can get Christian Kirk plus a little thrown in - I think there are options to move a guy while his perceived value is a little higher than his actual value at the moment, and anyone who thinks he’s going to be the next superstar WR should be able to give you a nice return.

When you think about target-earning wide receivers over the past six years, a few obvious names come to mind: Davante Adams, the league’s premier target earner in that time frame, has gobbled up just under 1000 targets checking in at 969. Behind him are a few other household names in the fantasy community: Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce have racked up 887, 861, and 838, respectively. Keenan Allen rounds out the top-5 as the only other receiver to check in at 800+ targets with 828, and DeAndre Hopkins lands at 6th with 770. The player at 7th just might surprise you, though…

Before you scroll and look at the answer, put together an answer in your head –or even a simple shortlist of two or three players that you think might be in contention for the 7th-most targets since 2018. Once you have it, go ahead and see who it is.

That’s right, it’s D.J. Moore. The guy who had washed up Cam Newton (twice), Kyle Allen, Teddy BridgeQB, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold, among others, as his quarterbacks for his career. Despite some of the worst QB play around the league (including in 2023 with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent at QB; both passers graded outside PFF’s top-30 signal callers in passing grade), Moore has consistently found a way to get it done, putting up career high numbers in 2023.

Moore’s 25.9% target share (12th) and 42.2% air yards share (5th) both ranked among the league’s best out of 145 receivers to run at least 100 routes in 2023. Those numbers are likely to come down in 2024, with the Bears introducing Keenan Allen (No. 5 on the same list of target earners) and ROme Odunze to the new-look Bears offense. While they’ll likely prevent Moore from earning that same elite 25% target share, Moore’s target earning prowess cannot be discounted either – and it would be a mistake to assume that he will get bullied out of the distribution.