Super Wild Card Weekend Pick'Ems! 🐶

If you thought that only being able to play DFS was bad, just wait until there’s no football at all for six months straight. 🤧

What’s in store:

• Sam LaPorta has a shot to play this weekend?? 🤯. Just days after having an ‘outside shot’ to go, he’s back at practice.

• The NFL’s coaching carousel is spinning out of control 🫨. Watch Arthur Smith get another head coaching job… lol.

• Zach’s favorite Underdog Pickem’s: playoff edition. See which picks he’s looking at for Super Wild Card weekend.

• This just in: shootout confirmed in Detroit between the Rams and Lions. See why there’s a high chance of points on Sunday night.

• Lions TE Sam LaPorta practices on Thursday, has chance to defy the odds and suit up in this weekend’s super wild card game vs Rams

  • This qualifies as surprising news, especially considering HC Dan Campbell’s non-glowing analysis of where LaPorta was at in terms of his recovery just a few days ago. The fact that LaPorta is practicing - especially on a Thursday - is very encouraging for his availability in Sunday night’s matchup against the Rams, but fantasy managers should stay tuned to any and all updates out of Detroit this weekend regarding the sensational rookie’s status. If he’s able to go, LaPorta very well may take on a full workload in an offense that would much rather have his services available than be without them. Had LaPorta missed practice all week and carried a designation into the game, thew would be reason for concern regarding the workload he would get in the game – but seeing as he’s already practicing, if he’s able to ultimately go on Sunday, fantasy managers would be able to roster him in DFS tourneys and other contests relatively comfortably.

• NFL’s coaching carousel goes ballistic in first week of offseason for non-playoff teams

  • Over the course of the past 96 or so hours, Commanders HC Ron Rivera, Falcons HC Arthur Smith, Patriots HC Bill Belichick, Seahawks HC Pete Carroll, and Titans HC Mike Vrabel have all been relieved of their jobs – kicking off an offseason of what projects to be chock-full of turnover at key coaching positions, head coaching jobs and coordinator positions included. Of the most notable openings are the Falcons, Commanders, and Seahawks, with Smith, Rivera, and Carroll all leaving behind respectively strong offenses ready to compete in 2024. As for the Patriots and Titans, their offenses remain very much WIPs and will probably require the help of an offensive guru to get their ships back on course for 2024. That being said, the most surprising firing of the offseason so far has to be that of Mike Vrabel, whom the Titans opted to fire instead of trade simply because the trade process would have been ‘too complicated’ in their eyes. If the Titans want to begin their rebuild from scratch and make the firing of Vrabel truly worth it, they will likely pursue a heavily offensive-minded coach this offseason to revamp their attack. Expect coaching positions to begin to fill soon as interviews are underway as you read this newsletter.

• Eagles QB Jalen Hurts practices Thursday, WR A.J. Brown not spotted

  • The Eagles are sputtering into the playoffs missing a few feathers, but it looks like the head of the whole operation - Jalen Hurts - should be good to go for the final matchup of super wild card weekend when they take on the Bucs in Tampa Bay. As for A.J. Brown, the picture isn’t as rosy at this current juncture - he wasn’t spotted at practice on Thursday as he tends to a knee injury. It’s just Philadelphia’s first practice of the week, so there’s no reason to panic just yet if you planned on drafting any of the Eagles’ playmakers for your DFS contests this weekend – but close attention should be paid to the status of A.J. Brown. If the star receiver would be unable to suit up against the Bucs, Jalen Hurts’ value would likely suffer as a result. Despite the lull the Eagles are currently riding out, Hurts has continued to be effective as a fantasy quarterback, rushing for 171 yards and three touchdowns over the Eagles’ 1-5 stretch to buoy his otherwise meager passing production. He should be drafted and started according to the regularly scheduled programming if he plays - and it seems like he’s trending that way.

Joe Flacco HIGHER than 36.5 pass attempts

• The Browns are dropping Joe Flacco back to pass at the eight-highest rate in the NFL according to Fantasy Life dot com’s utilization report, and he’s had 42 or more pass attempts in all of the games he’s started since Week 13 besides Week 17, when he threw for 296 of his 309 yards against the Jets in the first half. Remember when Flacco was sitting on the bench falling asleep in the second half? Yeah, that’s why Flacco didn’t hit the 40-attempt threshold that week, and he took week 18 off.

• They’re going to get right back to him slinging it all over the yard against the Texans, and I have to imagine that there’s no touchdown prop to take the over on because he’s just been a touchdown machine since he was named starter – he has at least two touchdown passes in five straight starts. Of all the picks that we’re going to be talking about, this one feels the most automatic. 

C.J. Stroud LOWER than 245.5 pass yards

• Let’s preface this by saying that I love C.J. Stroud, and I know it’s going to be unpopular to take the lower on any of his picks and it’ll probably be even less fun rooting against him having a big day. But Stroud has played five games against teams inside the top-10 for fewest passing yards allowed this season, and in four of those five games, he’s fallen short of the 246 passing yards he’d need this week to break the over on his prop. He had 91 yards against the Jets, 140 yards against the Panthers - who like I’ve been saying all season, do a really good job of keeping quarterbacks quiet in terms of production - 199 yards against the Saints, and 242 yards against the Ravens.

• The only team inside the top-10 for fewest passing yards allowed that he threw for more than 246 yards against? That would be the Falcons - and he only had 249 yards in that game.

• The Browns are top-2 in yards allowed to quarterbacks in the NFL this season behind only the Panthers, and we missed out on Stroud in Week 16 when the Browns went to Houston. Like I said, I love Stroud and what the Texans have going for them, but the Browns defense is lights out and Joe Flacco has the offense just humming. I’m gonna roll with what we’ve seen C.J. Stroud do against tough defenses so far and say that he doesn’t blow the doors off of NRG stadium this weekend.

Mason Rudolph LOWER than 26.5 pass attempts

• Not only has Mason Rudolph eclipsed 26.5 pass attempts in just one of his three starts this season, but the weather in Buffalo is supposed to be absolutely atrocious for throwing the ball and the Steelers have relied on their run game all season to help sneak them into the playoffs. Why would they go away from the run and put the ball in Rudolph’s hands in this game when the object has been to have him throw only when he absolutely has to? And don’t rule out the Steelers pulling out all of the stops if Mason Rudolph struggles in the first half –if it’s close, we could see the Steelers make a QB change like they’ve been doing all season.

• So with the gameplan likely leaning away from Mason Rudolph, the weather tilting its hand a bit at causing the passing game for both teams to be less than optimal, and that looming threat of replacement mid-game from a team that’s backed into a corner before the game even starts, I’m not inclined to take the over on Rudolph’s pass attempts. It certainly hasn’t been the quarterback play that’s gotten them to where they are, and I don’t think they’re keen on relying on that now that they’re in the playoffs.

Puka Nacua HIGHER than 76.5 receiving yards

• Over the last three games, these have been the stat lines of the top receiver facing the Lions’ defense: 

  • Week 18 (Justin Jefferson) 12 catches, 192 yards, 1 TD

  • Week 17 (CeeDee Lamb): 13 catches, 227 yards, 1 TD

  • Week 16 (Justin Jefferson): 6 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD

• So now they have the red hot Rams and Matthew Stafford coming to town, and I don’t trust this defense at all to handle Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Puka’s separating himself from Kupp as the 1A in the offense and he’s gone over his line for this week at 76.5 in four of the past six games - and it would have been five of the last six easily if the Rams had something to play for in Week 18. So essentially that makes it four of his last five games that he’s gone over 76.5 receiving yards, and the Lions/Rams game has the highest projected total this week at 51.5.

• Puka is also averaging the eighth-highest yards per reception this season at 14.2, which is tied with D.J. Moore among all receivers with 100 or more targets. If the game is going to be a shootout like Vegas is projecting – and I know you and I agree that this game has high-scoring written all over it – Puka should have no trouble coming through Sunday night.

Jared Goff HIGHER than 1.5 passing touchdowns

• So we know that Jared Goff is much better at home and indoors than he is anywhere else, and that plays right into his hand this week with his passing touchdown line. Since the Lions’ bye in Week 9, Jared Goff has thrown for 2 or more touchdowns in four straight starts at home, and the Rams have given up the 10th most passing touchdowns this season on defense.

• Again, we can point to the over under on this game being the highest of the week and it should be a reasonably competitive game between these two teams, so two touchdowns feels very well within reach for Goff. He’s also thrown the fourth-most touchdown passes in the NFL since Week 9. It’s all coming together too perfectly it feels like, but things are definitely trending towards this being a pretty safe pick.

Of all of the super wild card matchups going down this weekend, there might not be one with better storylines coming into it than the nightcap on Sunday between the Lions and Rams. Not only is the game expected to be quite competitive (Vegas has the Lions favored by the customary at-home three points), but Matthew Stafford’s return to Detroit in the Lions’ first home playoff game in 30 years is straight out of a story book – and Jared Goff’s first playoff game with Detroit also happens to be against the very team that traded him away. It’s set up to be a high-scoring showdown, and both teams are trending in the right direction to take what looks like an offensive explosion waiting to happen on paper and make it a reality:

The matchup between Detroit and Los Angeles is currently listed as the game with the highest over/under on total points for the weekend at 51.5, with both teams having an implied total over three touchdowns. The Lions have been especially vulnerable on the backend of their defense, while the Rams have also been less than pristine on their own – which has translated into some big games for both teams.

In each of the Lions’ past four home games, the over on total points scored has cashed four straight times dating back to Week 11 against the Bears. And as if that wasn’t enough, in each of the Rams’ last four road games, the over on total points has cashed four straight times, as well. With the Lions hosting the Rams and neither team having it all figured out on the defensive side of the ball, the potent offensive attacks of both teams are poised for a shootout in the opening round of the 2023 playoffs.