Target These 2 Sleeper RBs 😴

We are officially just one month away from the first regular season game of the 2023 season kicking off. 😈

What’s in store:

• The Josh Jacobs plot thickens… And two potential suitors for him if he becomes available may surprise you 👀

• Target these – yawns – sleeper running backs. 😴 Don’t pass up on these talents and get caught sleeping on draft day.

• Will D.J. Moore be the receiver we want him to be in 2023? The training camp hype is real, but he’ll have to clear some glaring obstacles.

• Can Mark Andrews challenge Kelce again as the overall TE1? It’s a better passing environment, but Tyler isn’t sure that’s enough to put Andrews in Kelce’s tier.

• Panthers QB Bryce Young to make his NFL debut in Preseason Week 1

  • This year’s number 1 overall pick will certainly be a player to watch as the main slate of games for the 2023 preseason kicks off. Young has already been named the starter for the regular season by HC Frank Reich, but both the Panthers coaching staff and prospective fantasy managers alike will be treated to a first look at the former Alabama star in the Panthers offense. There’s a good chance he’ll see more than one game of action this preseason, so the Panthers will likely limit his snaps in the opener to no more than a half of action. Young is unlikely to breach fantasy QB1 territory in his rookie year, but he could sneak into the low-to-mid QB2 conversation if he can sustain a solid level of play during the regular season and avoid being replaced by the likes of Andy Dalton.

• Two AFC West rivals waiting to pounce on Josh Jacobs if Raiders allow him to hit free agency

  • With progress towards a new contract for Josh Jacobs stuck in neutral, rumors have swirled about all options potentially being on the table for the Raiders as the regular season draws nearer. The Raiders could rescind Jacobs’ franchise tag and allow him to hit the open market – a move that would send shockwaves through the fantasy landscape. The Chiefs and Broncos reportedly are lying in wait to see how the situation is resolved with interest in adding Jacobs should the Raiders go in a different direction than last year’s rushing leader.

• T.J. Hockenson does not participate in practice Saturday, reason remains undisclosed

  • The Vikings TE is currently slated to play out the fifth-year option of his rookie deal, leading to speculation that his non-participation in camp this weekend could be contract related. However, no reports have emerged as of the writing of this newsletter to explain Hockenson’s absence from practice, so it remains a possibility as well that he could be dealing an injury. Regardless, Hockenson missing practice is never a good thing, but it’s also nothing to be overly concerned about at this moment in time. Fantasy managers can move forward with the expectation that he will be available and ready by the time Week 1 rolls around, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep a finger on the pulse of the situation until it is resolved.

D’Andre Swift - RB24, 77.7 (7th Round)

• The word out of camp is that they’re using the RBs a lot in the receiving game, specifically Swift. This is not something they did last year, but their HC Nick Sirianni said that their offense is based off of the skill and the players that you have… and Rashaad Penny is saying that he’s never seen this many route trees for the RBs.

• I think it’s happening… and I think people are sleeping on Swift’s upside in this offense. They think he won’t be targeted because Jalen Hurts is a scrambler – I think that’s true to a degree when it comes to dump offs, but RBs like Swift are scripted into the game like Christian McCaffrey, like Austin Ekeler, like Alvin Kamara. Cam Newton targeted CMC, and he was a rushing QB. That’s because it was scripted into the game - like we might see here in Philly.

• Among all RBs who had 50 or more targets last year, Swift was 3rd only behind McCaffrey and Kamara in yards/route run. Ekeler was 4th. He was top-5 in yards/reception, and 2nd in yards after the catch/reception.

• Swift has RB1 upside, straight up… is he a risky pick? Yes. Does he have a large range of outcomes? You bet. But he can also be a league winner if he hits, and the Eagles are capable of setting him up to do just that.

Khalil Herbert - RB39, 117.3 (10th Round)

• I talked about Roschon Johnson being a good late round pick, but I think if I had to choose one RB on the Bears offense to target, it’s Khalil Herbert. Why?

• Because he already proved that he’s a good RB, and he has the upper hand (😏) right now so far in camp as the Bears RB1.

• Here’s how good Herbert was last year… 2nd among all qualifying RBs in yards after contact/attempt, Tony Pollard was #1. You know who was 2nd last year? Tony Pollard.

• Forced missed tackles/attempt? He was 3rd in that category, right behind Nick Chubb and right ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson. He had a run for more than 10 yards on 17% of his attempts, which was #1 in the NFL. The other two in the top-3? Tony Pollard and Nick Chubb.

• He was #1 among all RBs in yards/carry in zone run concepts, and that’s what the Bears do right now - they’re a zone run team. There’s clear upside here - the numbers show it - and if you’re not betting on that, what are you doing?

• I get that Justin Fields can take a step forward in the passing game, but at the end of the day, this is going to be a run-first offense that’s going to feature a heavy dose of Fields running the ball and handing it off to Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson.

• Justin Fields might have averaged 20 fantasy points per game last year, but he wasn’t doing that by throwing the ball to his receivers! The highest finish by a Bears receiver last year was the WR70, done by Chase Claypool – who wasn’t even with the team until halfway through the year! And Darnell Mooney finished as the WR72.

• I get that this trend of No. 1 WRs going to teams with young quarterbacks to take the next step is real, but can D.J. Moore meet his WR26 ADP if Justin Fields is throwing the ball at the 2nd-lowest rate of any QB with at least 350 dropbacks?

• He averaged just 21 pass attempts per game last year in 15 games, and the guy we’re comparing him to when we talk about him taking the next step, Jalen Hurts, averaged 30 attempts a game last year, and 28 attempts the year before. Even if Fields increased his passing volume by 25% in 2023, he’d still be averaging just 23 attempts per game over a full 17 game season.

• That’s not going to be enough for D.J. Moore to get it done, unfortunately – according to Fantasy Life passing accuracy statistics, Justin Fields had the third-highest bad throw percentage and the 4th lowest on-target pass percentage in the NFL among QBs with 300 or more attempts. So even if there’s volume to be had for Moore, and even if Fields slightly improves his accuracy this offseason, it’s hard to imagine that Moore is going to be earning enough quality targets to produce among the league’s best. Darnell Mooney is still there, and so is Chase Claypool, and Cole Kmet was one of Fields’ favorite red zone targets during the stretch of games where he was on fire.

• I love D.J. Moore as a receiver, I think he’s great, and I love Justin Fields too as a QB – but the bread and butter of this offense is going to be the run game, the bread and butter for Justin Fields is going to be scrambling – the pass attempts are never going to climb to a level where we can get consistent production out of any Bears receiver, even if that receiver is D.J. Moore.

• He could fall into the WR40s range this season, and to have him going as the WR26 as early as the 4th round in some leagues – that would be a titanic bust as your fantasy WR2.

Andrews ended Travis Kelce’s historic run atop the TE position in scoring in 2021, finishing as the top TE in fantasy, and it looked very early on in 2022 that he was going to replicate his previous season’s production. To open up the season, Andrews posted double-digit performances in 5 of his first 6 games, including four 22+ point outings. However, that was the height of his 2022 season as it went downhill in the final two-thirds of the year.

Between mid-season injuries (knee, shoulder) and Lamar Jackson going down to injury shortly after, Andrews was never able to fully recover to his elite-TE1 self, posting double-digit points in just three of his final 9 games. Even with the adversity of poor QB play and missing some time, Andrews ended the year as the TE4 in points (behind Kelce, Hockenson, and Kittle) and finished as the TE3 in PPG.

Fast forward to 2023, and it’s a wildly different situation for Andrews – Lamar Jackson is back at QB, a new pass-oriented offense is in place, and a variety of new receiving weapons (Flowers, Beckham, Bateman) are added this season. It’s a scenario that leaves plenty of potential but also plenty of additional question marks.

I definitively have Andrews as the TE2 off the board, as all expect him to be, but the gap between him and Kelce (TE1) is far greater than between Andrews and a player like Kittle or Hockenson. I don’t envision myself investing the 3rd round price tag it’ll cost to get Andrews this year – I’m either paying the 1st round premium for Kelce or I’m waiting a bit longer for a player like Kittle, Hockenson, Goedert, or a value TE option in the mid-rounds of drafts.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

With Nyheim Hines going down to a freak injury expected to sideline him for all of the 2023 season, James Cook has been receiving plenty of hype as the new 3-down back for Buffalo. Much of that excitement comes from the role he projects to have in the receiving game, but we’re here to throw some more gas on the media fire around Cook – but this is about his potential in the ground game.

Last season among RBs with 75+ attempts, James Cook ranked 2nd in yards per attempt (5.7), behind just Breece Hall; was 1st in breakaway run percentage (48.6%); and was forcing missed tackles at the same rate per attempt (21%) as Tony Pollard. He’s a more than capable runner that has yet to see the opportunity, and that could come in 2023.

With coaches commenting on James Cook as a 3-down back, it’s likely that we see his carries jump significantly higher in 2023 than his meager 89 total in 2022. And if he can keep up the efficiency he’s demonstrated in the run game to complement a heavy dose of work in the receiving game, Cook could return seriously on investment at his current RB29 price tag on Underdog.