Target THIS Chiefs RB 🎯

On this fine Tuesday after the 4th of July, we look forward the the passing of eight more fine Tuesdays to lead us into the first week of NFL action.

What’s in store:

• Which Rookie QB Might Not be Starting in Week 1? 🚨 The first rumblings of a newly-drafted signal caller riding the bench come Week 1 have arrived.

• Tired of using your premium draft capital on non-premium tight ends? 🙄 Us too. Ditch the dirt-poor ROI and aim for an inexpensive alternative TE with just as much upside.

• Target this RB, but avoid that one. Zach brings you the first iteration of his one target, one avoid segment featuring two AFC running backs.

• Josh Allen is pumping the brakes in the run game, and you should do the same in your drafts: Could the stud quarterback for Buffalo possibly be OVERVALUED in 2023?

• Anthony Richardson Might Not Be the Colts’ Week 1 Starter?

  • Colts owner Jim Irsay once again hinted that Anthony Richardson might not be the starter in Indy come Week 1, saying that Gardner Minshew “could play better early on”. While this isn’t necessarily a reason to panic about Richardson’s fantasy prospects in 2023, it certainly raises questions about his true ceiling for the season. Richardson’s alien athleticism can only save his production if he’s on the field, and if it’s true that we could see Minshew under center to open the season and potentially for a few weeks after that, there’s a chance we could see Richardson slide down the QB rankings a bit. The silver lining, though, if Minshew ends up carrying the starting job into a through training camp: Richardson’s price could become much more affordable for those looking to shoot for upside in 2QB leagues.

• Javonte Williams is back, baby!

  • Or so he seems to be: Williams spoke to reporters Sunday that “the plan” is for him to be cleared for training camp ahead of the 2023 season. A clearance from the Broncos for training camp would complete a lightning-quick comeback from his ACL tear last October, but as we know with these types of injuries, optimistic statements like these tend to come well before the actual return of the player. Regardless, this is great news and offers hope that Williams could be ready for Week 1, and is exactly what you want to hear if you were able to cash in on Williams’ deflated ADP. New veteran addition RB Samaje Perine’s outlook becomes murkier with the threat of Williams’ return looming, but he shouldn’t be entirely overlooked in the event that the Broncos ease Williams back into a full workload (which they probably will).

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE11, 11th Round Underdog ADP) ⚔️

• As a rookie, Okonkwo led all tight ends in the NFL in yards/route run. Next up was Kelce, Andrews, and Kittle. Has a lot of promise, and will be running way more routes this year now that Austin Hooper is in Vegas.

Juwan Johnson (TE21, 14th Round) ⚜️

• Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews were the only TEs who had more Top-5 finishes than Juwan Johnson last year. Derek Carr and Johnson have built a clear rapport, according to OTA reports. Juwan is an athletic freak and was a former WR.

Mike Gesicki (TE23, 15th Round) 🇺🇸

• Gesicki took a big step back in Mike McDaniel’s offense, but he’s now in an offense that seems to be featuring the 2-TE set with him as the primary pass catcher. As of now, the competition for that title is completely wide open.

Luke Musgrave (TE26, 16th Round) 🧀

• Rookie TEs usually don’t make a huge impact in Year 1, but you don’t have to spend up like you would with Dalton Kincaid (TE11) or Sam Laporta (TE20). Musgrave seems to already be in full-go mode as a starter in OTAs, which is a great sign that he’s more integrated than any other rookie TE at this point.

Jake Ferguson (TE29, 17th Round) ⭐️

• This price is just ridiculous. I wouldn’t expect Luke Schoonmacher to make a huge impact in Year 1 as a rookie. Ferguson could be the steal at the tight end position, as there’s still a very good chance he’s the primary tight end for Dak Prescott. He had the 6th highest yards/route run among qualifying TEs last year.

One player to target: RB Isiah Pacheco

Target him as your: Ideal Flex

• The Chiefs’ 7th-round RB spun his tires a bit to open the 2022 season, but eventually gained traction both on the stat sheet and with the coaching staff en route to a very promising finish to it.

• Pacheco ramped up from just 7.5 rush attempts per game between Weeks 1 and 11 of last year to 12.3 attempts per game in the playoffs, almost doubling his workload in the ground game from September to February. And it wasn’t just the increased workload that has me excited about his prospects or 2023 – it’s what he ultimately did with that extra work.

• With a larger workload, Pacheco actually became even more efficient as a runner. His 5.1 yards per carry bumped up to 5.3 in the playoffs, and his yards after contact per attempt skyrocketed up from an already impressive 3.17 on 75 attempts between weeks 1 and 11 to 3.86 in the playoffs. For context, 3.86 yards after contact per attempt would have been 2nd in the NFL in the regular season in 2022 behind only Breece Hall (4.17).

• Oh, and he was suffering from a torn labrum and throughout the playoffs while averaging these eye-popping numbers, too. He’s the RB25 off the board currently on Underdog, which means he’ll have to return very low-end RB2 / high-end RB3 numbers to break even on your investment in him, but as the presumptive lead back on an Andy Reid-coached offense, I absolutely love Pacheco to smash his ADP and potentially enjoy a sophomore fantasy breakout.

One player to avoid: RB Jonathan Taylor

• Avoiding Jonathan Taylor has more to do with the landscape around him than it does with Jonathan Taylor himself, but shelling out a second round pick on a running back in a fundamentally different offense than the one he has excelled in previously is just too rich an investment.

• His efficiency numbers from last season weren’t all that bad: he ranked inside the top-20 among qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles forced. But while those are fine numbers, the Colts offense figures to take on a drastically different look in 2023 than it had in 2022.

• With a rookie QB under center, the Colts offense might spend most of the year in the bottom third of the league with regards to production, which means fewer goal line looks for Taylor – and even then, Anthony Richardson figures to be part of the game plan where the money is made inside the 5.

• • Saquon Barkley: RB6, Mid-2nd Round

  • Tony Pollard: RB7, Late-2nd Round

  • Derrick Henry: RB8, 2-3 Turn

  • Josh Jacobs: RB10, Early-3rd Round

• Pollard has a world more upside than Taylor at a cheaper price, while Nick Chubb has been the definition of a what-you-see-is-what-you-get fantasy running back. Henry is getting older, but at half the price of Taylor, he’s a better value in drafts and Josh Jacobs inexplicably is going later than all of the above.

• Taylor has the greatest risk associated with him of the running backs mentioned here, yet is the most expensive of them all; smelling what I’m cooking?

Allen finished the season as the QB2 in points and likely would have led the position in scoring if not for the suspension of the Buffalo/Cincinnati game at the end of 2022 – and that was a down year for Allen, featuring his lowest points and per-game totals since 2019.

That shows how dominant Allen has been in fantasy over the last several years. Before 2022, he was the first QB to lead the position in scoring for consecutive seasons since Daunte Culpepper did such from 2002-2004. The only significant point of concern with Allen is how heavily his production stems from rushing – not from yards, but TDs. He has yet to go a season in his career without 6+ TDs, which is a positive when that is occurring, but is a dangerous thing to rely on with a QB, especially when Allen has come out to say he eventually will start to run less. By no means is it a guarantee that he takes a step back in terms of redzone rushing utilization, but it will happen at some point.

Beyond that, you can’t ask for much more out of a fantasy QB – production, consistency (year-to-year and week-to-week), and upside. He perhaps may have an even better situation this year with the Bills investing their 1st round pick on another weapon for him, taking TE Dalton Kincaid in the 2023 Draft. Everything is positive for Allen in terms of his actual prospects, but the price will be far too high as one of the premier fantasy QBs in 2023.

QB is by far the deepest (and most easily replaceable) position statistically in fantasy, which makes his price (whether it be in the late-2nd or early-3rd round) far too much to pay for a QB that doesn’t completely separate himself from the rest of the position. I’d recommend passing on Allen for a later (and more price-sensitive) option at the QB position.

Faraz’s Note: The Bills also went ahead and added two punchy goal-line backs in Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. Those two backs, combined with James Cook, could do some damage to Allen’s rushing production by vulturing easy touchdowns at the goal line. A lower reliance on Allen could be in the cards for 2023.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett has registered 100 targets in each of the past four seasons (i.e. every season since Seattle drafted D.K. Metcalf). He’s been one of the most consistent target earners in the NFL, but he was on another level last year when it came to creating receptions (and fantasy points!) from targets.

Among wide receivers with 100+ targets in 2022, Lockett led the league in percent of targets that resulted in a reception (77.1%) and registered the 2nd-lowest drop percent in the NFL (2.3%). And in each of the past five seasons dating back to 2018, Lockett has had AT LEAST 8 TDs. That’s unparalelled consistency. This is excellent news for managers with Lockett rostered in their leagues, as it gives hope that Lockett will not be relegated to being the odd man out with the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Lockett has earned his share against strong competition plenty of years before, and even with the addition of JSN, Lockett figures to be squarely in the WR2 mix come the end of the season. His weekly upside in Seattle’s offense remains largely unchanged, with any of the new Big-3 wideouts being liable to finish inside the Top-12 any given game.