Tee Higgins officially franchise tagged! 🏷️

The NFL combine officially takes place this week – but some of the top prospects won’t be participating in full or at all. Stay tuned for their Pro Days, which aren’t until (cries a little inside) late March. 😵‍💫

What’s in store:

• Tee Higgins becomes the first player of 2024 to be tagged. Hardly unexpected, but Bengals fans can rest easy - for now.

• There are… a lot of free agent running backs this year. That is, big name ball carriers hitting the open market.

• Drafting rookie quarterbacks in dynasty with Faraz. With a twist - we’re focusing on QBs not named Caleb Williams.

• Derrick Henry isn’t slowing down 🚂. He’s still one of the league’s best at 30 years old, and he could have a brand new home in a few weeks.

• Bengals WR Tee Higgins officially franchise tagged ahead of free agency, set to remain in Cincinnati

  • This was the expectation after reports surfaced over the weekend that the Bengals had informed Higgins that they intended to franchise tag him, but the move is now official. With Higgins tagged, Cincinnati will have additional time to negotiate a potential long-term deal with the former second-round pick in 2020. Should they be unable to find common ground, Higgins would then be slated to play out the 2024 season on the tag, which currently sits just north of $21 million. At this point, the expectation should be that Higgins returns for his fifth season with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and the Bengals barring unforeseen circumstances. Higgins spent a good chunk of the 2023 season off the field while he dealt with a handful of injuries, which led him to his worst single-season finish of his career as the PPR WR51. As long as he can stay healthy, fantasy managers can expect a return to form as Cincy’s WR2 – although the potential addition of another offensive weapon via free agency/the draft could complicate things (looking at you, Brock Bowers).

• Top free agent-to-be running backs will not receive franchise tags, set to hit open market in 2024

  • Specifically: Cowboys RB Tony Pollard, Chargers RB Austin Ekeler, Raiders RB Josh Jacobs, Giants RB Saquon Barkley, and Titans RB Derrick Henry will not receive their teams’ respective franchise tags in 2024. After all of the drama that unfolded regarding the running back market last offseason, this report indicates that we could be looking at a cut-and-dry start to the new league year come March 13th. A brief analysis on each of the names mentioned above:

    • Cowboys RB Tony Pollard: This was the expected resolution for Pollard after he failed to meet the lofty expectations both the fantasy community and the Cowboys organization had for him in his first year sans Elliott. While he was perfectly serviceable – 1300 scrimmage yards are nothing to sneeze at – Pollard’s efficiency took a noticeable dip in 2023 after he was touted for that exact reason as a potential RB1 candidate. Granted, he was coming off of a brutal ankle injury he sustained in the divisional round in 2022 – but with Dallas already strapped for cash with Dak Prescott’s contract situation staring them in the face, Pollard is the sensible option to let walk in free agency after a net-neutral year.

    • Chargers RB Austin Ekeler: Ekeler fell of a cliff in 2023 after being drafted as one of the top overall players heading into the season, leading to his official label as Upper Hand Fantasy’s ‘bust of the year.’ He’ll be 29 in March, putting him past the optimal age threshold for running backs on the heels of a season where he couldn’t beat the Mike Tolbert allegations. Where he winds up for the 2024 season remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: his fantasy days as a workhorse appear to be behind him, as he is definitely not defying Father Time as fellow free agent RB Derrick Henry is.

    • Raiders RB Josh Jacobs: After exploding onto the fantasy scene as a real, dependable RB1 in 2022, Jacobs followed that season with a dud in 2023. Amid the offensive dysfunction in Las Vegas, Jacobs posted just 2.35 yards after contact per attempt (last among qualifying RBs) and 0.15 missed tackles forced per attempt. With the Raiders allowing him to hit the open market, there’s a very good chance we see Josh Jacobs in a new uniform in 2024. After an inefficient outing in 2023, though, Jacobs may have a harder time finding a landing spot than others in a stacked RB class.

    • Giants RB Saquon Barkley: The former Penn State superstar had a very serviceable season on one of the worst offenses in the NFL in 2023, providing hope that there’s still plenty left in the tank for the now 27-year old running back heading into free agency. After last year’s decision making debacle in the big Apple that saw New York take negotiations with Barkley to the wire, it appears that there won’t be any such deliberations this time around with Barkley slated to hit the open market. He’ll have plenty of suitors, but it remains to be seen whether or not he’ll be able to beat the RB market depreciation and land a multi-year deal.

    • Titans RB Derrick Henry: The most curious case of a free agent running back the league has seen in quite some time. Despite turning 30 in January, the Titans runner has showed no true signs of slowing down and is expected to garner interest with the best of them this free agency cycle. Until Henry finally starts to show the effects of age catching up to him, fantasy managers will have no choice but to continue accepting him as an exception to the rule. The Titans and Ravens have been linked as potential trade parters as far back as during the season, but the range of outcomes remains wide open for King Henry’s services in the 2024 season.

1. Jayden Daniels

   I’m going for the upside - we’ll see where he lands, but Daniels who can easily be the next Konami Code… it’s going to be Anthony Richardson this year, and it could be Jayden Daniels very soon… the deep ball accuracy, the playmaking ability - I’m not sure if I care too much about the arm strength although you don’t want balls to be sailing as much, but the fantasy upside is higher than any QB in this draft.

2. Drake Maye

   A lot of the excitement about Maye is about the arm talent, the size - I think when those are the first things we talk about when it comes to a QB, and there are elite WR prospects on the board, in dynasty, even in super flex, I don’t want to pass that up. To me, is there is a higher chance for Marvin Harrison or Malik Nabers to be an elite fantasy contributor than Drake Maye? I think so… and I get the positional advantage QBs bring in super flex, but value wise, there’s still a solid chance those WRs will hold more value Maye. I think Odunze is also right there too. But with Maye, is he going to improve under pressure, is he going to continue to try and do too much at times - he could just very well be a straight up playmaker because of it - but there are enough questions for me to make me going with the elite WR prospects.

3. J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix

   The question is - do we go Bo Nix and Michael Penix over a guy like JJ McCarthy? There’s been a lot of buzz around McCarthy, and Nix and Penix aren’t perfect prospects. I kind of feel like landing spot will be crucial for these guys. I think I’m going JJ McCarthy here - I can see the Falcons going crazy and taking him at 8 or the Vikings taking him at 11. Both are solid situations - the Vikings with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, plus T.J. Hockenson at some point next year, and the Falcons are loaded everywhere but under center.

There’s one big name running back set to become a free agent in a few weeks that’s over 30 years old, and he very well may be the best running back of the bunch. When you consider age as part of the equation, sure – Saquon Barkley might be a better pick. But Derrick Henry continues to spit in the face of the idea that he’s slowing down, and the numbers he put up this past season prove that he’s still one of the best ball carriers to step on the field.

Consider, first, the fact that in his age 28 and 29 seasons (old for a running back), he didn’t miss a single game. He’s been incredibly durable even as he’s moved ‘past his prime’, but it’s not just his availability that is remarkable about his continued fantasy relevance; he was one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL in 2023 and was easily the best of the bunch among all of the free agent running backs from this year’s class.

Among running backs in 2023 with 200 or more carries, Derrick Henry’s 3.32 yards after contact per attempt and 57 missed tackles forced ranked 6th and 4th, respectively. And among those same qualifying running backs according to PFF, Henry ranked second in breakaway runs (rushes that go for 15+ yards) with 16, second to only Christian McCaffrey’s 20. The fantasy community has been calling for the downfall of Derrick Henry for a while now, but the King has shown no signs of falling off and has a chance to vastly improve his situation this offseason by getting away from the up-and-coming Tyjae Spears.