The Texans are stacked at wide receiver 🥱

There are a lot of people out there suggesting that Stefon Diggs made Josh Allen the superstar he is today, but it clearly didn’t matter if Diggs was producing or not for Allen to be a fantasy star. Just saying 🤷‍♂️ I’m just the newsletter writer though.

What’s in store:

• Stefon Diggs is a Texan… for now. 🧐 Houston reworked his contract shortly after moving to acquire him, setting him up for a very intriguing season in 2024.

• The Rashee Rice saga continues to play out. More developments in the case occurred this week, and Rice could reasonably be looking at a punishment from the league.

• Breaking down the fallout from the Diggs deal 📝. From C.J. Stroud, to the Texans pass catchers, to Josh Allen – Faraz goes point for point on everything you need to know.

• It’s another Rookie Draft Kit Preview! See what you’re missing out on if you haven’t picked up your copy yet - and click here to get your hands on yours now!

• Texans slash the final three years off of WR Stefon Diggs’ contract, increase salary this year following trade

  • Translation: the Texans have essentially converted Diggs’ contract to a one-year deal that will afford him the opportunity to hit free agency in 2025. In this scenario, Houston is able to cover its ass in event the second-half slump Diggs got stuck in to close the 2023 season is actually more of a spiral downward than a rough patch, and Diggs will have a chance to play his way into another big-money extension. Whether or not that deal would be with the Texans will be entirely dependent on Diggs’ output in 2024, but it seems like the veteran receiver is happy to have found his way out of Buffalo after what felt likes years of rumors suggesting that a trade was imminent. He’ll head up a receiving corps. that is lightyears ahead of nearly every other room in the league and provide an experienced weapon to the quickly-ascending C.J. Stroud. Regardless of how the 2024 season plays out for Diggs (more on that later in the newsletter – keep reading 😉), the prospect of the 6x-1000 yard receiver hitting the open market at age 31 a year from now should have fantasy managers feeling slightly more intrigued by Diggs’ future than they were a short 24 hours ago.

• Rashee Rice revealed as one of the drivers involved in multi-car accident in Dallas, continues cooperating with authorities

  • Speculation about Rice’s involvement in the incident was confirmed yesterday by his lawyer, and at this point, what lies ahead is out of the Chiefs WR’s hands. While there’s no guarantee that Rice will be disciplined by the league, one can only assume that will be the case given the nature of the issue. We’re likely still a while out from any formal announcement by the NFL regarding any potential suspension as the legal process continues to play out in the coming days and weeks, but we’ll keep you posted on any relevant developments in the case. As outlined in Faraz’s redraft WR rankings this week, Rice is likely to serve as Kansas City’s WR1 in 2024 even with the addition of Marquise Brown to the mix. But with Rice potentially looking at a short suspension to begin the year, Hollywood Brown could have a chance to kick the tires with Patrick Mahomes and get off on the right foot with his new quarterback sooner rather than later. Regardless, Rice is on the wrong side of things at the moment and could see his ADP drop in the near future should any news emerge suggesting that he could have his season shortened via punishment.

Diggs is not the same WR he was a couple of years ago – this was made clear by his struggles down the stretch last season (12.9 PPR points per game from Week 6 on). However, in an offense that proved to scheme WRs open last year, he will thrive even if/as he declines. I have him ranked as a mid WR2 with upside.

C.J. Stroud is the biggest winner of the trade; he has the league’s best WR trio now. He balled as a rookie, and he’s going to ball out even harder as a sophomore. Bobby Slowik staying in Houston as OC will also play a huge factor in Stroud’s second year success. Easy Top 5 fantasy QB.

I know that Diggs has the pedigree of a No. 1 wideout, but I still maintain that Nico is the true 1 in Houston. He’s on the climb compared to Diggs being on the decline, and Tank Dell is coming off a broken fibula. Collins also broke out last year – but the question today is: who should we target?

With Diggs coming in, the targets that were previously tightly distributed between Nico and Tank will now be more widely distributed, unfortunately with Tank likely being the one most negatively affected.

With that being said, this entire offense should be targeted at the right price. Nico will have his big games, Diggs will have his big games - very similar to what we saw last year when Nico and Tank played together. None of these receivers will ever be obsolete as long as they’re healthy and C.J. Stroud is commanding the offense.

Let’s move to Buffalo. Josh Allen is hurting right now. The WR that helped him reach superstar level is gone, and the most effective option available to help replace Diggs is to draft a rookie to come in and be his #1 WR. In other news: Dalton Kincaid is that guy right now.

If the Bills stay put at pick 28, A.D. Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, and Ladd McConkey are all options. Buffalo could also move up for a guy like Brian Thomas, or stick back and go for some of the later round receivers in this deep class using the extra second rounder that picked up in the deal. Among the receivers they have now outside of Kincaid, I’d be betting on Curtis Samuel before Khalil Shakir.

Let’s not get it twisted: I’ve been vocal and a big fan of Shakir since meeting him at the Senior Bowl and watching him land in Buffalo, but this is a great time to sell him in dynasty – take the mid-2nd round rookie pick if you can get it. He could end up as their 4th option after the NFL Draft if the cards end up not being in his favor.

As a final note, one thing that could go understated through all this - James Cook was targeted on 26% of his routes in each of his two playoff games earlier this year. If the Bills get the wrong WR in the draft, Cook could benefit from the misplaced targets created by that situation.

If I’m just looking at the spreadsheet, I’d be out on AD. It’s a good thing I watched, because his tape screams the opposite. First off, his NFL Combine performance has to make you pay attention. His athletic testing couldn’t have been better, and it makes sense, because he moves so fluid for his size.

He runs good routes, and isn’t just a big body - but when he needs to use his body in contested situations, he can do it with his large catch radius. But he doesn’t always do it, which is the main knock on him. More consistency in his route running, and acting like he cares when he knows he’s not getting targeted would be nice. The reason why I care about the latter is because sometimes I couldn’t tell whether he lost a rep or because he wasn’t running at full speed.

It’s also worth noting that Xavier Worthy out-produced Mitchell this year, but I will argue that Mitchell pushed Worthy enough to the point where it was a 1a/1b situation between the two, and Worthy was being used very differently than Mitchell. Worthy was used a lot more in the screen game, closer to the line of scrimmage (10.3 yard aDOT), and Mitchell was their deep guy (16 yard aDOT). I think Mitchell wasn’t used like an NFL team would use him because of the fact that he has short area quickness and other skills not highly utilized.

He can win short, intermediate, or deep. He’s capable of more, and has a very high ceiling. It seems like he’s going to get Round 1 draft capital, which is way more important than the efficiency metrics I’m going to list here: 0.18 career targets/route run - last among WRs in this kit, 1.68 yards/route run - also last… but he did finish his career with a 32% career dominator rating, which ranked 5th among Power 5 WRs in this class.

Mitchell is a spreadsheet bust, but a win on film. I’m leaning towards the film on this one. He’s good, and we should be targeting him in rookie drafts despite the production and analytical nightmare on paper.