The Next Breakout Fantasy QB Is... 🤔

• Chargers TEs coach Andy Bischoff lauds rookie TE Oronde Gadsden, compares him to former Raiders TE Darren Waller

  • The drumbeat for Oronde Gadsden, a fifth-round pick in last April’s draft, continues to get louder as he stacks strong days in minicamp leading up to official Chargers training camp later in July. LA has largely relied on a by-committee approach to the TE position since the departure of Hunter Henry, a sentiment that rang true in JC Jim Harbaugh’s first year as the team’s head coach. The platoon of Hayden Hurst, Stone Smartt, and Will Dissly wasn’t a failed operation by any means, but certainly didn’t exceed expectations in any way – both in real life and in fantasy. Now, Gadsden is seemingly making his case to lead the Chargers’ tight ends as a rookie going into 2025, but he’ll have to cut through both the aforementioned Dissly and FA acquisition Tyler Conklin. Not unbeatable competition, to be sure, but both Conklin and Dissly have records of being reliable and serviceable players for the teams, even if it doesn’t show up in the box score. As the TE3 on the depth chart, Gadsden still has a long way to go in terms of earning enough snaps to be considered as an option at the TE position in fantasy. However, getting himself compared to Darren Waller by his coach is a good start to seeing the field, and he could without a doubt challenge for some starting snaps or a fantasy-relevant role in the Chargers’ passing game.

• Jets WR Josh Reynolds is reportedly the ‘clear cut favorite’ to assume the role of New York’s WR2 behind Garrett Wilson, per Rich Cimini

  • With Aaron Rodgers out of town and off to greener pastures in Pittsburgh, Allen Lazard’s ‘become the team’s WR2 free’ card has started declining when Lazard swipes it going into 2025. Perhaps it’ll work better out in Western PA in 2025 if Lazard would happen to make his way out there. That’s reportedly because that role in the Jets offense is likely to be assumed by former Jaguars WR Josh Reynolds, who joined the team via free agency earlier this offseason. Reynolds is just a year removed from his most productive season in his NFL career in 2023, when he caught 40 passes for just over 600 yards and five touchdowns with Detroit. On most other teams, Reynolds would likely be fighting for a WR3 or 4 spot – but as we’ve come to learn, the Jets aren’t most other teams. With the departure of Davante Adams at the conclusion of the 2024 season, a gaping hole in the depth chart was left behind at the WR2 spot behind Garrett Wilson. With the Jets making no major investment at the position via the draft, the door was left open for Lazard, Reynolds, and rookie WR Arian Smith to duke it out for the rights to claim the WR2 job. At this point, it sounds like the job is Reynolds’ to lose, and he’ll be tasked with building a rapport with newly minted Jets QB Justin Fields. Just exactly what Fields is able to offer in the passing game remains to be seen – he’s been serviceable in supporting fantasy WR1s before (think D.J. Moore), but the biggest question for Reynolds will be whether or not he can separate himself from the rest of the pack in the WR room, as well as rookie TE Mason Taylor.

Drake Maye/Patriots Passing Game Preview

Drake Maye, in an offense without high level weapons and in an unproven offensive scheme, averaged 18.7 fantasy points in his 9 healthy starts - that was on pace to be the overall QB9 in fantasy. He was 13th among all qualifying QBs in accuracy and 11th in catchable ball rate. He was a rookie.

On top of that, he gave you 37 rushing yards per game last year – without any designed rushes built into the offense for him. This cannot be overstated. Alex Van Pelt gave this man a 3% designed rush rate! How he saw what Maye was able to do in North Carolina with his legs when he scrambled last year and didn’t give him more designed rushes is beyond me…. 3%? He gave you 37 rushing yards per game regardless - and you know what? Only Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels had more rushing yards per game than Drake Maye last year, and all of them were above a 18% designed rush rate. That’s the delta you should expect to see this year.

Why should we expect it? Because Cam Newton was coached by Josh McDaniels in 2020 - he gave him a whopping 26% designed run rate that year, which was easily #1 in the NFL among QBs - more than Lamar, more than Josh Allen. McDaniels is going to unlock that part of Maye’s game - period.

And then you look at the receiving core - Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams on the outside, Demario Douglas hopefully taking that slot role, which has been a big part of McDaniels’ schemes over the years - there’s even more reason to be optimistic. Targeting that slot WR - and Drake Maye actually was already locking in to Douglas last year in his starts; 23% target share, 24% targets per route run – is a staple of the McDaniels system. Douglas could be a high floor flex guy in PPR.

Now, I do think Stefon Diggs is going to be the alpha target earner here - he’s already participating in minicamp, and I know it’s tough to trust a 31 year old WR coming off a torn ACL… but because it’s a clean ACL tear and he’s already back, with a couple of months before Week 1, I think I’m MORE than happy to draft him at his ridiculously low ADP of WR44. Yes, he’s had some offseason drama, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to affect his status with the team at this point.

25% targets per route run last year for Diggs when he was competing with Nico Collins - that ranked 21 of 91 qualifying WRs. 1.97 YPRR, ranked 32 of 91 WRs, 7th in 1st downs per route run among 91 WRs - 22nd in fantasy points/route run. Like, he was pretty good last year - he’s not in his prime, but McDaniels will find a way to use him and get the most out of him and I would be very surprised if he’s not the clear alpha WR there earning a 25%+ target share this year. He’s going way too low in drafts - 7th round is kinda ridiculous.

I do think Kyle Williams is an intriguing rookie - I’ll be taking my shots on him as the WR58 off the board - he’s someone who is a good route runner, has a good release package, can separate against man coverage, and could play the X receiver role on this offense is asked to. We’ll see if he beats out guys like Kendrick Bourne, but if he does, he can make a fantasy impact as soon as Year 1, and can be the WR2 in terms of target share on this team. Apparently he’s already making noise in OTAs and minicamp.