They're getting the band back together ⚡️

Make sure check out the Upper Hand Fantasy Discord channel at 12 p.m. ET later today! Faraz will be dropping his top-5 RB prospects ahead of next week’s draft. Share your thoughts on Faraz’s rankings or your own top-5 with the rest of the Upper Hand community!

What’s in store:

• They’re getting the band back together in LA ⚡️. J.K. Dobbins is officially a Charger, and we’re getting even more Baltimore vibes from their backfield.

• Justin Jefferson and Courtland Sutton absent at voluntary workouts. It’s still early, but they’re situations to monitor.

• The Bills need to draft THIS wide receiver to replace Stefon Diggs. Good news, Bills fans: you might not have to trade up to get him, either.

• The Rookie Draft Kit has been updated! New RB ratings, updated targets and avoids, fresh rankings, and more await!

• Former Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins signs with Chargers on one-year deal

  • They’re getting the band back together in LA. Dobbins joins his former teammate and running back Gus Edwards along with offensive coordinator Greg Roman to complete a full transplant of the Ravens backfield to the Chargers. Since becoming the team’s head coach, Jim Harbaugh has purged the offense of its veteran receiving weapons (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams) as he begins to lay the groundwork of what will presumably be a more run-focused unit in 2024. Despite the fact that he’s very talented and still plenty young, his injury history is a major cause for concern both in real life and for fantasy purposes. It’s clear that the Chargers are simply taking a zero-risk flyer on a running back with experience in Greg Roman’s scheme, and fantasy managers shouldn’t expect him to handle the bulk of the load in any capacity as long as Gus Edwards is healthy. There’s also the potential for the Chargers to draft a running back next week, which would add more layers of complication to a backfield that’s already likely to be run by committee. Keep an eye out for Michigan’s Blake Corum to find his way into his old college HC’s backfield, which would bottom out Dobbins’ prospects should the former Wolverine ultimately follow the cookie crumbs to LA.

• Vikings WR Justin Jefferson officially absent from voluntary workouts as long-term deal is negotiated

  • As is the case with Ceedee Lamb and others (as you’re about to hear about in the next item), holding out of voluntary workouts isn’t terribly consequential from a fantasy football perspective. But these situations are worth monitoring, especially when the player in question is arguably the best wide receiver in the league, both in real life and in fantasy land. The good news in this specific case is that things aren’t believed to be at a standstill between Jefferson and the Vikings brass, and Jefferson has reportedly maintained positive relationships with everyone in the Vikings building. At this point, its a matter of when and not if for Jefferson’s extension to come to the surface – and given that there don’t seem to be any noticeable signs of tension about Kirk Cousins’ departure via free agency, it would be a surprise to see Jefferson don any colors besides the purple and gold in 2024. Whether it’s Sam Darnold or a rookie suiting up under center for Minnesota this year, Jefferson will remain as a surefire WR1, especially with TE T.J. Hockenson likely to miss some time early.

• Broncos WR Courtland Sutton absent from voluntary Broncos workouts as he enters final year of deal

  • While he has less leverage to exert in negotiations from his on-field performance than Justin Jefferson or Ceedee Lamb, Sutton is pretty much the last man standing in a depleted Broncos receiving room. Cursed by poor quarterback play and a rollercoaster two-season stretch with Russell Wilson at the helm, he’s largely made the most of the losing hands he’s been dealt over the past few years; however, he’s failed to put everything together in a single season yet in his six year career, which could ultimately prevent him from cashing in on a long-term extension with the Broncos. Despite the rocky overall performance from Denver’s offense, Sutton was able to post ten touchdowns in 2023. That success should set him up to earn at least a somewhat lucrative short-term deal, and more importantly, an opportunity to showcase that he’s worth a long-term extension. The only issue? Denver is most likely hitting a hard reset at quarterback once again, setting up Sutton’s hopes of cashing in next offseason to hinge on the arm of a rookie signal caller. It’s a less than ideal situation for Sutton, but with minimal competition in terms of pass catchers in the Broncos’ offense, Sutton will have a chance to contribute to fantasy teams in 2024 similarly to the way he did in 2023. Let’s just hope touchdown regression doesn’t hit him all too hard.

Landing with the Bills after they traded away Stefon Diggs, paired with Josh Allen would propel any rookie’s fantasy value immediately. I do think Khalil Shakir is a solid slot WR - I just don’t think he proved that he can earn targets just yet with two years already under his belt. I also think Curtis Samuel is a very good flanker WR; he’s been underutilized, and the fact that he can reunite with offensive coordinator Joe Brady who he had his best year under is a good thing. But there is still a clear vacancy for the true WR1 spot on this offense.

Now, the Bills have pick 28 at the end of the first round and pick 60 at the end of the 2nd, without any 3rd round pick. At the end of the first, I doubt Brian Thomas Jr, will be there, so the potential WRs in that range can be AD Mitchell, Keon Coleman, Troy Franklin, and Xavier Worthy. And then you have Ladd McConkey if they want to trade down a few picks into the second round.

But if they stick to picking a WR at 28 who want to trade up just a bit, I want to eliminate Troy Franklin and Worthy off the bat, because I think their skillsets are similar to what Curtis Samuel brings to the table. Can they be a better version of what Curtis Samuel brings to the table as that Z receiver with more speed? Sure, maybe. But I think they want to bring in what they’re missing, and that’s that X receiver mold. That brings us to AD Mitchell and Keon Coleman - and I think AD Mitchell is the guy who I think would absolutely go off if he lands in Buffalo. I also like him as a prospect, he’s a good separator and route runner, and might need a little development, but Keon Coleman is someone I think needs even more development, isn’t a separator right now, and someone who really depends on his hands and ridiculous ball skills in contested situations. Unless you want another Gabe Davis.

If the Bills want to reach for McConkey, I have no problems with it - I do think he’s a first round WR even though he’s being projected to go early 2nd - can he have some issues playing the X receiver role, maybe, but I don’t necessarily think he needs to stick in that role all game long - he has enough route running and separation ability to be very productive in this offense, and I’d be all over him if he ends up with Josh l

Wright had an extremely efficient 2023 season, averaging a ridiculous class-leading 7.4 yards/carry, which went along with his class-leading 4.35 yards after contact/attempt. The latter number fell into the 96th-percentile among 876 qualifying FCS RB seasons since 2014. His 0.32 missed tackles forced/attempt was also one of the best over the last 10 years (93rd-percentile). His career numbers came in at 88th-percentile among Power 5 RBs since 2014 for YAC/att and 84th-pecentile for MTF/att.

His 1.33 yards/route run ranked 4th in this class in 2023, but I’m very curious as to what level of pass catcher he’ll be at the next level. He wasn’t asked to run any complex routes, and his 2023 efficiency didn’t match his career efficiency, but it’s worth noting that he was only targeted 9 times total over his previous two seasons… but it’s also worth noting that he ran 152 routes, so a 6% TPRR isn’t ideal - and that led to his dismal career 0.66 yards/route run. My guess is that his 2023 number is more in line with what he’s capable of.

It’s worth noting that he ran through a ridiculous amount of light boxes, more than any other RB in this class. His offensive line also provided some of the most yards before contact among any RB in this class. That can cloud a lot of his production, and he might have to adjust at the next level before he can show what he’s truly capable of. This is the main red flag for Wright.

Wright’s one of the most explosive and athletic RBs in this class, and he has the right feel for when to use power and when to be elusive. His 4.38 40 time at the NFL Combine tells you what you need to know in terms of his game breaking speed. Combine that with a solid build, some pass catching and pass blocking chops, you got yourself a high upside potential three-down back.