Thinking about drafting a Bills pass catcher?

Happy day after the fourth of July, everyone – here’s to hoping you’re reading this newsletter without having to worry about working today.

What’s in store:

• James Conner appears primed to retain his role in 2024. Rookie RB Trey Benson apparently hasn’t gained much ground on the veteran ball carrier.

• Sean McVay ‘loves’ Kyren Williams, who will hold onto his lead role. Blake Corum is still only a handcuff, guys.

• Big-name Cowboy spotted in his boots ahead of training camp. 🥾Technically, it’s a singular boot – but it’s less than ideal news regardless.

• Targeting a Bills pass catcher this year? You won’t want to miss Faraz’s complete preview of the Bills receivers…

• Cardinals RB James Conner expected to handle the ‘bulk share’ of the work in Arizona’s backfield, per PHNX Cardinals’ Johnny Venerable

  • The Trey Benson stans may need to stay in the shadows in 2024, after all – especially in the beginning of the season. After a run to end last season that saw him score seven touchdowns in his final five games, Conner seems primed to pick up where he left off in terms of utilization in 2024. He averaged just under 24 opportunities per game in that five-game stretch, shouldering the load without an issue and offering fantasy managers hope that he can continue to be the workhorse for Arizona entering his age 29 season. While the Cardinals did draft Benson relatively high in the third round of April’s draft, there doesn’t seem to be any momentum right now for the former FSU running back when it comes to challenging Conner’s role as the clear No. 1 in the backfield. More reports like this one in the coming weeks will likely widen the gap between the two running backs’ respective ADPs (Benson, the RB30, is just three spots behind Conner, the RB30, as of this newsletter’s writing), but for a running back who was a clear RB1 the last time we saw him on the field and is now playing on a better offense, the price will likely be right for Conner in drafts as long as the price tag remains outside the mid-RB2 range.

• RB Kyren Williams expected to be the Rams starter at running back in 2024, per the OC Register’s Adam Grosbard

  • In another piece of running back news confirming what we’ve been anticipating, it seems like RB Blake Corum isn’t here to outright steal Kyren Williams’ job despite conspiracy theories in the fantasy community suggesting just that. The whispers got louder earlier in the offseason once a report came out that Williams was tending to a foot injury that was likely to sideline him for most of spring OTAs, but the sentiment seems to remain the same heading into the summer that Williams is the guy to lead the Rams backfield. Grosbard made specific note to mention that Sean McVay ‘loves’ Williams while also speculating that the Rams may have drafted Corum as a Kyren Williams ‘clone’ to preserve consistency in the offense should Williams be unable to stay healthy in 2024. Williams missed four games in 2023, which wasn’t disastrous – however, fantasy managers will likely be keeping a close eye on the Rams RB to ensure that he won’t require frequent maintenance in the form of missed games/walked back workloads. Williams should be treated as a very solid RB1 with high-end RB1 upside as we’ve been treating him this offseason, while Corum remains a priority handcuff given Williams’ less than spotless, but still not troublesome injury history.

• Cowboys QB Dak Prescott reportedly spotted in walking boot, dealing with minor foot sprain ahead of training camp

  • It’s not something fantasy managers should be losing any sleep over at this point, but it’s also not nothing. While it’s reportedly unlikely that a foot sprain will affect Prescott’s preparation for the regular season (i.e. he won’t have to miss any time in training camp), fantasy managers shouldn’t completely tune out updates on the situation as the regular season draws nearer. The best case scenario for Prescott is that the whole situation blows over in the next week or two and that he takes the field without any limitations when Cowboys camp starts later this month. The worst case scenario is a potential lingering into the season a la Cooper Kupp in 2023, who fought off injuries of his own while missing parts of training camp and ultimately had his production limited early in the season. Luckily for fantasy managers, the odds remain in favor of the former and not the latter. However, any time missed by Prescott (which is highly unlikely at this point in time) would throw a real wrench in the fantasy prospects of Dallas’ pass catchers, specifically Ceedee Lamb and Jake Ferguson. We’re a long way from hitting the panic button in Prescott’s case, but it’s very presence is enough to bear monitoring the situation in the coming days and weeks.

The Bills offense is built around Josh Allen, but without a true WR1, what’s going to happen? Once Joe Brady took over last year, Stefon Diggs kept an elite 29% target share the rest of the way, even through the playoffs. Dalton Kincaid was up next with 18% target share, which would’ve ranked 8th among TEs last year, and had a 72% route participation, which would’ve ranked 9th among TEs. He finished outside the Top-12s TE in 4 of the 7 regular season games with Brady calling plays, and started to really come back on towards the end of the season and playoffs.

During the weeks with Brady, Kincaid’s combination of an 18% target share and 20% air yard share is consistent with the averages of TEs who finish somewhere between the TE4 and the TE6. So, with a little more playing time - which is still a question mark - we’re looking at a potential Top-3 finish from Kincaid. How many routes will Dawson Knox steal from Kincaid? There’s no way to know that for sure at this point, but I do expect Kincaid’s route participation to go up a bit. And without Diggs there, that is very much a possibility, and Kincaid can definitely be the top target earner on this offense as it stands right now.

Now, I do not think he should be drafted above guys like Trey McBride and Mark Andrews, but ahead of Kyle Pitts makes sense. His TE5 price is justified, and the fact that he’s going around WRs like Keenan Allen, Jayden Reed, Calvin Ridley - he’s a perfectly fine pick there when considering other positions.

Now, among the Bills WRs to pick up where Stefon Diggs left off, it’s between Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, and Khalil Shakir. Coleman is the first Bills WR going off the board as WR46, Samuel’s the WR50, and Shakir’s the WR54. The first thing I think of is this - all of these guys can out-perform their ADPs - under Joe Brady, Teddy Bridgewater had three WRs finish in the Top-24, so there is a good chance of hitting on any of them. But keep in mind, one of those top options on the Bills will be Dalton Kincaid… but which WR should we target?

Brandon Beane already said that he projected Coleman to be their X receiver - and because of that projection, I don’t love him in Year 1. I’ve had my concerns with Coleman in terms of separation, so he might take some time to adjust to that role in the NFL - I can see him having some good games, but I don’t think he’ll have a chance to be a consistent option in Year 1 because of the fact that there are other receivers here who can be productive, including Dalton Kincaid and even James Cook. I’m off of his ADP.

Between Samuel and Shakir, it’s close, but I’m betting on Samuel - he’s been productive in the league, he’s a good receiver who can separate, and he’s not beholden to being a slot receiver - he’s a flanker, and he can play outside and get some targets down the field. He can also play inside, he can play X at times, and he can even take handoffs - he’s the most versatile receiver they have. I think Shakir can be a flanker, but if the Bills thought he could play that role, they wouldn’t have paid Samuel all that money to be reunited with his old OC - who by the way was the OC he had his best season with.

Here’s the other thing: whoever the Bills slot WR is, they might not get a whole lot of playing time. The Bills were in 3 WR sets only 60% of the time under Joe Brady last year, so I think Samuel ends up being the guy on the field more with a higher route participation. I can also see MVS coming on the field for some plays and bumping Samuel inside while Shakir is off the field – Shakir had the same target share last year with Joe Brady as Gabe Davis and James Cook, which isn’t great, but he did lead the team in yards/route run and was 2nd only to Kincaid in first downs/route run with Joe Brady.

To me, it comes down to who I think will be on the field more and get targeted more - and I think Samuel edges Shakir out by a hair. If Samuel is off the board, Shakir is perfectly fine consolation prize, because I do like him as a player and I think he can excel out of the slot if given opportunity. Can’t really beat their WR50 and WR54 price tags.

Another Sean McVay disciple gets a crack at OC. Will the talent actually get utilized in Atlanta with new OC Zac Robinson?

One of the biggest changes coming to the offense is 3 WRs on the field in bunch formations, close to the line of scrimmage. Atlanta ran the fewest three-wide receiver sets in the NFL last year. What does that mean for 2024?

For starters, they’ll be a lot more dependent on their WRs blocking in the run game. But we should expect a lot more free releases for those receivers, as well, which is going to benefit Drake London in a huge way. A staple route combination for Rams WRs is a dig route from the outside receiver - combined with either a sail or dagger from the slot. Could Kyle Pitts and Rondale Moore handle that kind of role on the inside?

On the outside in the Rams offense last season, it makes sense that Puka Nacua’s most common route was the dig; he was very successful at it. Drake London happens to also have a high success rate on dig routes. Puka’s three most common routes (dig, slant, curl) also happen to be three routes London had a high success rate with.

IN terms of the run game, it’s anyone’s guess as to whether the Falcons will run gap or a zone run scheme. McVay is known for his success with outside/wide zone, but he pivoted to a gap scheme this season with great success, primarily with duo concepts. Kyren was #1 in duo success rate among all RBs.

The Falcons, on the other hand, were primarily a zone run scheme last year. Bijan had the most attempts of outside zone of any RB last season, which resulted in the 2nd most yards when running that concept. He was also zone-heavy at Texas, too.

McVay’s offenses have tightly revolved around his key guys like Todd Gurley, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua. Let’s hope for a tight distribution between London, Bijan, and Pitts with new OC Zac Robinson at the controls in Atlanta.