Time to Say 'Cee Ya' to Ceedee Lamb? 🐑

Trevor Lawrence has to start tonight so that Al Michaels can finally call a somewhat interesting game. C.J. Beathard against the Saints defense would be a step back for entire game of football.

What’s in store:

• Better days ahead for Bijan Robinson? Faraz has peered into his crystal ball and says we should be buying the stud rookie runner.

• Take advantage of a perfect sell window for Ceedee. Dallas’ offense hasn’t been consistent enough to hold onto Lamb.

• Thursday Night Football preview: Jags vs. Saints! See which picks Faraz likes over on Underdog Fantasy’s higher/lower pick’ems!

• What the 🤬 is going on with tight ends these days? It’s not just you that’s noticing their low production this season - there’s something more at play here.

• Rams RB Kyren Williams’ ankle injury is worse than originally anticipated, expected to be out for multiple weeks

  • Fantastic timing by the Rams to wait until AFTER waivers clear to drop this bomb. After originally having his ankle injury labeled as “not long-term” on Tuesday, fantasy managers were blindsided by what projects to be an extended absence for the newest workhorse running back on the block. In an effort to wait out the storm in his absence, the Rams have taken the quantity over quality approach by making a slew of signings and elevations in the backfield. Royce Freeman, Myles Gaskin, and Darrell Henderson could all potentially be part of a rotation in the Rams backfield behind Zach Evans, which is probably the worst-case scenario for fantasy football. Among all of those ballcarriers, Evans still stands out as the most intriguing add heading into Week 7, but the fact that LA acted fast in building depth behind him suggests they might not want to rely on Evans in a workhorse role. Any managers with Kyren Williams should hold until further notice.

• Cardinals QB Kyler Murray designated to return from IR this week, opening his 21-day practice window

  • Murray could suit up and be ready to go as early as Week 8 against the Ravens if he continues to progress well. Josh Dobbs has played serviceably in relief of Murray despite the Cardinals’ 1-5 record, but it’s clear that a healthy Murray could make a difference to help make the Cardinals competitive once again. If Murray would be able to make his return in Week 8, he would have a tough slate of games to work through in his first action of the 2023 season: back-to-back bottom-4 matchups against Baltimore and Cleveland would make him an uncomfortable start in both. Despite the tough matchups, Murray’s return is obviously good news for the Cardinals’ receiving weapons, with Marquise Brown, Michael Wilson, and Zach Ertz slated to see significant upgrades as soon as he’s back on the field. There’s a chance he doesn’t return fully to form in 2023, but even Murray at 75% is enough to make him a high-end QB2.

• If you’re looking for a high-end RB to buy, Bijan Robinson is the most obvious target for me. I’ve had people hit my comments to ask what to do with Bijan, that Bijan is frustrating them, this and that - so I’m getting a sense that a lot of people aren’t viewing Bijan as a high-end RB. He had a couple of top-10 finishes to start the year, but he was outside the Top-10 in three straight weeks. He still was in the Top-18 though, so it’s not like he’s absolutely killing you, and what you’re seeing over the past few weeks is his absolute floor.

• Outside of Kyren Williams, there is no RB who’s had a higher route participation than Bijan. He’s running a route on 72% of Desmond Ridder’s dropbacks, which is insane. 17% target share is right at the top of the league, right there with Christian McCaffrey. Targets are worth 2.5x more than carries in PPR leagues, and Bijan’s got 5+ targets in 5 of 6 games, and is averaging 5 catches in those games. That’s gonna solidify his floor, and he’s still getting 13 carries/game on top of that! And before you gripe about the fact that he hasn’t scored, those TDs will come - he’s been on the field for 80% of his team’s short yardage snaps.

• I really don’t care that Tyler Allgeier is getting 50% of the rushing attempts for now. Do I want him to be less involved? Of course… but the opportunity Bijan is getting is still consistent with that of a solid RB1, especially in PPR, and the talent with this type of opportunity has the chance to win you your league. He’s 1st in missed tackles forced/attempt among 33 qualifying RB and 4th in rushing yards over expectation, only behind Devon Achane, Breece Hall, and Raheem Mostert. I’m taking advantage of the few modest performances he has on his game log so far.

• I think what happened on Monday night for anyone who has Ceedee Lamb was great - one, he had a solid week for you (hopefully helped you get the dub), but he also provided you with a nice point total for the game log so you can now go shop him. I don’t see any signs that things are getting better for CeeDee - what do I mean?

• He performed by catching all 7 of his targets, but those 7 targets made up only 23% target share - this year, CeeDee has a 22% target share for the season. Last year, he was at 29%. This year, CeeDee is at a 28% air yard share; last year, he was at 35%. Looking at the last 3-year WR1 utilization averages provided by Dwain McFarland over at FantasyLife.com, he was getting WR1 usage last year. This year, his target share and air yards share is indicative of a fantasy WR2.

• It’s very possible he’s still being viewed as someone who can bounce back and get that usage back up - maybe, but check out these target shares for this season: he had that one 35% target share game in Week 2, but otherwise - 17%, 19%, 17%, 19%, and then 23% on Monday night. You’re not going to be able to get many elite games from CeeDee, and someone might think they’re buying a WR1 low, so I’d try and sell him now off of this game - let them feel the same pain you’ve been feeling with CeeDee over the first 6 games of this year.

• I see Christian Kirk’s yardage prop set at 51.5 receiving yards - the Saints have been solid against perimeter WRs, but the slot has been a lot more vulnerable so I like the over there for Kirk.

• Those are the main three I like, you can throw those in yourself, and if you’re new to Underdog and wanna get in on the action, to go underdog fantasy dot com, use code UPPERHAND when you sign up, and you’ll get your first deposit doubled up to $500, you can deposit whatever you want, the minimum is only $10. Not only that, but I gave you three picks - you’ll get a free Derek Carr pick to use as well - all you have to do is use the code UPPERHAND. That’s underdog fantasy dot com, code UPPERHAND.

If you listen to the Upper Hand Fantasy podcast or simply have to have a tight end in your lineup for fantasy football this year, you’ve probably got the feeling that tight ends just aren’t very productive players in 2023. If that’s you, then you would be right - even the best tight ends this year are drastically underperforming compared to data compiled going back to 2020. We’ve documented the average weekly fantasy output of the top fantasy tight end over the first six weeks of each of the past four seasons, and the results indicate that even if you’re starting the best tight end every single week in 2023, you’re scoring historically low fantasy points compared to the past three seasons.

Our research finds that the average TE1 in 2022 through six weeks of the season scored 29.5 PPR points on average - the highest of any of the seasons we covered. Two other seasons - 2021 and 2020 - saw the average TE1s each week average 28.0 and 28.9 points those years, respectively. 2023, though, has seen drastically worse production out of tight ends through six weeks, with the average weekly TE1 scoring just 23.5 points per game.

That difference is incredibly significant compared to the past three seasons, which saw weekly TE1s average between 27.9 and 29.6 points per game (28.5 ppg average). Weekly TE1s in 2023 are scoring 18% fewer points on average than those over the past three seasons, marking a dramatic drop in production from the position so far. Also worth noting: there hasn’t been a single TE to surpass 30 points in any game so far this season. There’s been at least one tight end to have a 30 point performance through the first six weeks of each of the past three seasons.