Time to Sell Kenneth Walker? 💰

What better time than tonight for Jahmyr Gibbs to level up as a fantasy asset against a division rival?

… Just trying to speak this one into existence, guys. Carry on with your reading.

What’s in store:

• Anthony Richardson is primed for a return in Week 4! 🐴 He’ll be a welcome addition to fantasy rosters in all formats after two very strong performances to begin his career.

• Is this the best time to buy Jonathan Taylor? Faraz explains why it might be a good idea to target the Colts’ top ball carrier.

• SELL Kenneth Walker? After that performance? Hear Faraz out on this one… keep reading to see why!

• Hope you didn’t draft and of the Chiefs wide receivers… Not even Patrick Mahomes can remedy this big problem in Kansas City.

• Colts QB Anthony Richarson practices Wednesday, should be good to go for Week 4 barring any setbacks

  • This is excellent news for the rookie quarterback and his fantasy managers alike. Richardson is averaging 19 points per game through essentially five quarters of play, as he was on his way to a monstrous fantasy day in Week 2 after he ran in two touchdowns but was then injured partway through the first half. That’s via three rushing touchdowns in two games, but he’s also proven that he can get the ball to his best receivers in the receiving game, as well (Michael Pittman is far exceeding expectations because of this). Richardson has the look of a matchup-proof fantasy QB1 when he’s healthy despite dealing with injuries through the first three weeks of the season, and he should be back in fantasy lineups this week against the Rams.

• Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle set to clear the concussion protocol and practice in full on Thursday

  • After missing the nuclear explosion that was the Dolphins Week 3 matchup against the Broncos, Waddle looks to make his return to an offense that is suddenly stacked with high-profile fantasy competition. When he’s been on the field this season, Waddle has seen very lukewarm fantasy production, reeling in just four passes in each game with no touchdowns. That’s likely to change at some point in the near future, but the competition for targets from Tyreek Hill will ultimately place a limit on the heights Waddle can achieve. It’s also worth noting that the running backs have been quite involved as of late in the Dolphins’ offensive game plan, which could prevent the high volume in the passing game that would help boost Waddle’s weekly floor from becoming a reality.

• Ravens RB Gus Edwards likely avoids concussion, practices Wednesday; RB Justice Hill misses practice

  • With Justice Hill missing last week’s game and Gus Edwards being banged up towards the end of it, the Ravens backfield became an amalgamation of veteran practice squad callups when Kenyan Drake and Melvin Gordon III took over. Neither of Drake or Gordon should be started this week, and Justice Hill is still the running back to have rostered in the long run. But with Hill missing practice, it looks like Gus Edwards could get another crack as the top RB in the Ravens’ backfield this week. Even as the lead back, the Ravens are heading into a tough matchup against the Browns, so tempering expectations for Gus Edwards as a flex option would be wise.

BUY RB Jonathan Taylor, IND

• I want to start with one of my favorite buys this week, and that’s Jonathan Taylor. I’m not sure the concern that JT does not want to be a Colt anymore is there at the moment. I can’t believe I’m putting this much stock in an IG story, but the fact that he posted him working out in the Colts facility with the Colts logo clearly displayed and him captioning it with ‘Loading’ kinda tells me that he just wants to play and he’s going to play this season out. He should be back in Week 5, he’ll take this backfield over.

• Zack Moss - a RB who has never been fantasy relevant for his 3-year career prior to this season - has been awesome for fantasy, averaging the 5th most expected fantasy points/game based on his opportunity. Deon Jackson would’ve ranked 6th per game in expected fantasy points/game based on his Week 1 opportunity with Richardson, and now JT is only going to take things to another level when he’s back. Then you consider that Moss has had the 8th most yards before contact/attempt among the 37 RBs who’ve had at least 25 carries so far this year, which means Taylor will enjoy a similar luxury.

• With Anthony Richardson in Week 1, the Colts played at the 3rd fastest pace. This is an underrated aspect for fantasy - more plays mean more fantasy points. Deon Jackson also had a 17% target share in Week 1 according to Fantasy Life Utilization. Fast paced offense, Anthony Richardson looking better than I thought he would early, him willing to check it down if he has to - all reasons why I’m back in.

BUY WR Jakobi Meyers, LV

• I have a WR I want to buy, and I’m kinda buying high on him - and that’s Jakobi Meyers. Jimmy G is in the concussion protocol, so maybe we wait a week, but he should be on your radar. He’s WR5 in fantasy points/game right now, but he’s also WR6 in expected fantasy points, so he’s not necessarily overproducing on the opportunity - he’s doing what good players do with the opportunity they’re given.

• The target distribution in two games with both Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers has been extremely tight. According to the Fantasy Life Utilization Report, In Weeks 1 and 2 when these guys played together, they had a combined 73% target share in each of those weeks - that’s insane, and that’s exactly what you want to see.

• He had a 38% target share in Week 1, 27% in Week 2, and this is not new for Meyers. He’s always been someone who’s demanded a high target share: 22% last year in a dysfunctional offense, 24% in 2021, 23% in 2020… the track record is there, and it looks like he can take a big step forward this year. Obviously, this isn’t something I saw coming, but we know he’s a good player, and he’s being heavily prioritized by the Raiders offense. Even if the offense stinks, this type of target distribution blossoms fantasy points.

SELL RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA

• Kenneth Walker is someone I’m fielding offers for. I want to see what’s out there. He just had a 30 point game, he had 59 yards receiving – that’s not going to happen often, and he’s had 4 TDs in the last 2 games. There were a lot of RB carries available for the Seahawks this week, but his snap share is going down, and Zach Charbonnet’s snap share and opportunity is going up. This was not a close-out situation, this looked like the plan coming into this game.

• Can Kenneth Walker be a RB2 rest of season? Definitely. Can you get more value back than what he might end up turning into? Yes. And this isn’t about Charbonnet now becoming fantasy relevant - it’s more about Charbonnet taking enough away, including 2 carries inside the 5 so far this year. Charbonnet does look good… he almost had a TD in this game after he truck sticked this dude at the 1 yard line. He also has taken over the passing down duties including the 2 minutes snaps as well, so he does an upgrade.

• Walker had 18 carries in this game, but according to Fantasy Life data, his overall rushing share dropped from getting more 70% of the rushing attempts each of the first two weeks to 55% of the rushing attempts in Week 3. One-game sample, but Charbonnet can get worked in even more, especially since he looked pretty good in this game.

• This is not a fire sale by any means - get good value back, like a high-end WR2 - like an Olave or a Devonta Smith. And by the way, his fantasy playoff stretch is brutal and the weeks leading up to the fantasy playoffs is brutal - Starting in Week 12 - 49ers, Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, Titans. Not great.

• We got the Lions and Packers - like I mentioned earlier, it looks like David Montgomery, Christian Watson, and Aaron Jones will play – keep monitoring that, but that’s what it looks like right now.

• Watson and Jones will be in my lineup if they play - Watson as a high-end WR3 and Aaron Jones as a high-end RB2. I think Jordan Love is a Top-10 QB play this week; he’s been getting it done as the QB4 on the year. Throw him in your lineup this week.

• Goff is also a potential streamer in this matchup - decent option, decent matchup. Fantasy Life’s game hub is showing this one with a 45.5 point total with the Lions favored by 1.5, so Vegas is expecting a close game here. Jahmyr Gibbs would be a Top-18 RB play this week, so he should be in lineups.

• I think Romeo Doubs is a solid flex play if Watson plays, and a WR3 play if Watson is out; in that scenario, Jayden Reed is a what the heck flex. Luke Musgrave is a Top-12 TE play for me this week - the Lions have given up the most fantasy points to TEs this season.

• The rookie tight end on the other side of the ball Sam LaPorta is also one of the best tight end plays out there - as of right now, I’m viewing as an every-week starter, no tight end has had more receptions than LaPorta through the first three games of their career. So there’s that… he’s in your lineup.

We know that the Kadarius Toney experiment hasn’t worked out at all in Kansas City, but it’s more than just the issues with the former Giants first rounder. Through three weeks, no Kansas City wide receiver has established themselves as a clear No. 1 in the offense for QB Patrick Mahomes, and that’s reflected in some pretty laughable target share numbers.

No Chiefs wide receiver has registered a target share over 12% (!) this season. An unbelievably low number for any receiver to have in general, 12 % target share on 30 passes is just over three targets per game. The Chiefs have FIVE players at 12% or less, with their alleged No. 1 Kadarius Toney sitting at an extremely problematic 10% share.

We can expect lower target share numbers for the Chiefs offense in general when Travis Kelce is in the lineup, but the problem extends further than that. Kelce has a 22% target share through two games this season, and in the one game where he was out, no Chiefs receiver eclipsed 14% target share either. All of the Chiefs WRs have been borderline unstartable or roster cloggers this season, and there’s no end in sight for any of them.