Trade Targets for Contenders 🏆

Nothing like having your starting tight end for the week go down on the first drive of the game. 🫠

What’s in store:

• Updates on a few NFC North running backs. Spoiler alert – one is trending down, while another is trending up.

• Dameon Pierce continues to miss practices. 🤕 It could be yet another week of the Devin Singletary show in Houston.

• Sitting pretty? Don’t get complacent. Tyler delivers two trade targets at each position for teams looking to solidify their rosters heading into the playoffs.

• Derrick Henry’s season has been… interesting, to say the least. If there’s one thing he’s embodied in 2023, it’s been consistency – but not in the stat that immediately comes to mind…

• Vikings RB Alexander Mattison limited in practice Thursday, faces uphill battle to start Sunday vs. Broncos

  • While it’s happened before this season, the odds of Mattison completing a one-week turnaround in the NFL’s concussion protocol are much lower than the odds of him being forced to miss a game. Even so, Mattison wasn’t an effective fantasy producer even when he was on the field and healthy, and he was strictly a volume-based play in starting lineups. Assuming Mattison doesn’t suit up this weekend, it’ll be the Ty Chandler show in Minnesota against the Broncos. Chandler averaged just 3.0 yards per carry last week on 15 attempts, but was able to salvage the day with a touchdown to finish as a serviceable RB3. The Broncos are currently allowing the most fantasy points to running backs on the season, but they’ve stiffened up as of late in wins against the Chiefs and Bills. Chandler should be in flex consideration for the week with the keys to the backfield being his in Week 11.

• Bears RB Khalil Herbert trending towards activation, has realistic shot to play Sunday vs. Lions

  • In other AFC North running back news, Khalil Herbert is officially practicing in full as he awaits his activation from injured reserve. While the Bears are technically able to hold Herbert out for one more week, all signs have been pointing in practice to Herbert taking the field once again this Sunday against the Lions. Fellow RB D’Onta Foreman is also dealing with a minor ankle injury, which could help tip the volume scales in Herbert’s favor should he be ready to go in Week 11. As strong as Herbert looked early in the season (he handled 72% of snaps in Weeks 4-5), it’s clear that D’Onta Foreman - who was largely an afterthought earlier this season - has played himself into a split for work with Herbert moving forward. Assuming that both running backs are good to go against Detroit, they’ll rank very closely to each other as back-end RB3s in a tough divisional matchup.

• Texans RB Dameon Pierce continues to miss practices with ankle injury, absent on Thursday

  • The Devin Singletary train chugs right along. Pierce, who’s missed the past two weeks of action and is now in danger of missing a third, had topped 50 rush yards just twice in seven starts this season and failed to finish inside the top-12 on any occasion. That’s opened the door for Devin Singletary, who capitalized on his opportunity by toting the rock 30 times for 150 yards and a touchdown last week against the Bengals. Given that Pierce has yet to log even a limited practice over the past two weeks, it would follow that fantasy managers should expect to be without his services once again in Week 11. Devin Singletary could make some noise as an RB3 once again this week with an expanded role for the second week in a row, and it seems as though even once Pierce returns this could remain a true backfield by committee for the rest of the season.

Quarterbacks

1. Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) - The playoff schedule is amazing, facing the 4th-easiest SOS, and getting an elite QB1 (2nd in points, 1st in PPG) who plays three above-average matchups in the playoffs, including Arizona in the championship, is never a bad option. Hurts is my favorite candidate to be the MVP of the fantasy playoffs.

2. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) - Even despite his worst season since 2019, Allen still somehow stands among the fantasy elites, ranking as the QB1 in points and the QB2 in PPG through the first ten weeks of the season. He still has his bye week to go (Week 13), so if you're already in a locked-up playoff spot, you can use that as additional trade leverage. With the schedule of Dallas, Los Angeles (Chargers), and New England (13th-easiest SOS), and Buffalo likely fighting for their playoff spot, Allen is my 2nd priority (if going for an elite QB) if I miss on Hurts.

Running Backs

1. Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons) - After a rough slump, Bijan got back on track in Week 10, controlling the workload in the Falcons' backfield (65% of backfield carries, 61% of backfield touches) and seeing a new redzone role. The reports of an increased role in the second half of the season seem to be coming true for Bijan and it's just in time for a potentially league-winning playoff run. The Falcons draw the 2nd-easiest playoff schedule with each matchup ranking inside the top-10 (CAR, IND, CHI).

2. Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans) - New year, same story: Derrick Henry at the end of the season should be extremely productive. Historically speaking, Henry not only plays his best football at the end of the season but also produces at a 21% higher rate once the calendar hits December. He draws the 6th easiest playoff schedule among RBs, including a matchup against Seattle (6th-most PPG to RBs) and TWO games against Houston, who Henry has historically shredded for 20.8% more PPG than opponents.

Wide Receivers

1. Marquise Brown (Arizona Cardinals) - The second half of the Murray/Brown connection that was lethal last year and saw Brown rank as the WR5 in fantasy as the Cardinals' lead WR with Murray at QB. It wasn't an ideal performance last week in Murray's return for Brown, drawing just 1 catch on 4 targets as he was shadowed by A.J. Terrell and the Falcons' 7th-fewest PPG to WRs. The good news is that discounts his price ahead of an amazing playoff opportunity with the 2nd-easiest playoff schedule, featuring all above-average matchups, two top-8 matchups, and a championship game against the Eagles defense that allows the most (47.5) PPG to opposing WRs. Brown is the ideal WR2/FLEX to have heading into the playoffs.

2. Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints) - Olave has been good, but not great, so far in 2023, posting 9+ points in all but one game but also finally hitting the 17-point threshold for the first time since Week 3. Michael Thomas (knee) is likely to miss some time and the gun-slinger Jameis Winston may be taking over at QB (at least for the short-term, maybe longer based on play) so Olave's prospects are on the rise as the playoffs approach. Even better is the fact that he draws the 5th-easiest playoff schedule, which includes two top-4 matchups against the Giants (3rd) and Buccaneers (4th).

Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) - It's Travis Kelce. He has an above-average playoff schedule (14th) and a top-6 matchup in the championship game (Cincinnati, 6th). I really don't need to spend much time explaining this one... If you have the means, get Kelce as the positional advantage he brings immediately puts you in a favorable spot for a championship run. It also removes the potential for a poor TE performance to near-single-handedly end your season.

2. Sam LaPorta (Detroit Lions) - He's a discount Travis Kelce. The volume is there, the efficiency is there, and the role within the offense is there. LaPorta sits 4th in points and will likely remain around that mark as he draws the 4th-easiest schedule among TEs in the playoffs with all above-average matchups against Denver (2nd-most PPG to TEs), Minnesota, and Dallas. He's a potential league winner.

Despite significant struggles on the offensive side of the ball in Tennessee, RB Derrick Henry has largely been able to overcome them this season even at 29 years of age. The current RB17 in fantasy points per game (14.0) and overall RB12 in total fantasy points scored (125.7), the route that Henry has taken in 2023 hasn’t been like the ones we’ve seen him follow in years past –particularly when it comes to his production in the rushing touchdown department.

In one of the more curious trends to develop this fantasy season, Derrick Henry has scored a touchdown in every other game this season at a perfect rate so far. Those trips to paydirt have come for Henry regardless of matchup and game script, and despite the touchdown fluctuation, Henry has been able to finish as a top-15 weekly running back in six of his nine games played thus far.

Based on the Henrian touchdown calendar, this Sunday’s game against Jacksonville has the veteran ball carrier slated to score his fifth rushing touchdown of the season – and history tells us that there’s a solid possibility of that happening. In 13 career games against the Jaguars, Derrick Henry averaged 105 rush yards and 1.15 rush touchdowns per game – which supports the trend we’re seeing with Henry through nine weeks. It’s one of the more peculiar stats of the season, but certainly one worth paying attention to if you’re considering adding a Derrick Henry anytime TD scorer leg to your parlay.