- Upper Hand Fantasy Newsletter
- Posts
- Travis Etienne is in a bit of a slump...
Travis Etienne is in a bit of a slump...
Plus, Tyler delivers his top waiver wire targets – and Devon Achane SHOULD be playing this week 🐬
And just like that, we’re back to bye weeks being a thing. There shouldn’t be byes this late in the season imo.
What’s in store:
The outlook for Kenneth Walker this week is oBLEAK. Get it? Oblique? Either way, he missed practice Monday, which isn’t a good sign.
The return of Devon Achane: Take 2. Hopefully the rookie running back can avoid immediate game-ending injury this time around against the Commanders.
Waiver Wire Targets: Week 13. You know the drill.
There’s just something about bye weeks that can change the trajectory of a player’s season. Travis Etienne is the latest case of a bye week negatively affecting a player’s production.
Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III misses practice on Monday, status in doubt for Thursday night vs Cowboys
Walker missed Seattle’s Thanksgiving tilt against the division rival 49ers last Thursday and now starts the week off on the wrong foot heading into their second Thursday matchup in a row at Dallas. Walker has a history of core injuries, so it will be imperative for him to get onto the practice field today or tomorrow for there to be any chance of him playing this week. If Walker should miss a second week with his oblique injury, rookie RB Zach Charbonnet would likely reprise his role from last week as the Seahawks’ lead running back. The production wasn’t there last week in a blowout loss to the 49ers, and another tall task stands ahead of Charbonnet this week against Dallas, who are allowing the 6th-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season. Charbonnet would profile as a high-RB3 in that matchup with some upside.
Dolphins RB Devon Achane trending towards playing in Week 13 against Commanders
Let’s be honest – we all knew we were kidding ourselves when we were hoping Achane would be ready to go last week against the Jets on Black Friday. The good news for Achane is that he seems to be on track to start heading into a Week 13 matchup against the Commanders, with Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel reporting that Achane hasn’t suffered any setbacks in his recovery from the aggravation he suffered in Week 11. If Achane is able to go, he should absolutely be in lineups this week against a middle-of-the-pack Washington defense against running backs. Fantasy managers should pay attention to any reports on Achane between now and Sunday to confirm that Achane will be playing, but all signs seem to be pointing to the electric rookie ball carrier taking the field once again in Week 13.
Ravens OC Todd Monken says that the team is getting ‘more comfortable’ with playing rookie RB Keaton Mitchell
The faster Baltimore gets comfortable giving Keaton Mitchell the ball, the faster we can get comfortable with putting him in our fantasy lineups. Mitchell led the Ravens backfield in opportunities, rushing yards, and receiving yards this past weekend against the Chargers, but failed to find the end zone. The good news for Mitchell: the Gus Bus has finally slowed down. Gus Edwards failed to score a touchdown for the first time in over a month (Week 6), and with Mitchell clearly displaying the best burst of any of the Ravens running backs, the runway could be clearing for Mitchell to take off in the Ravens backfield. Fantasy managers should continue stashing him over the bye week in hopes of him becoming a legit fantasy asset before the season’s end.
Buckle up - it’s the home stretch of the fantasy regular season. And as has been the case all year, it’s never a bad time to add to your team off of waivers! Here are Tyler’s top priority targets for Week 13.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR - Baltimore Ravens)
It was a limited workload (5 targets, 3 catches for 34 yards) in Week 12 for Beckham, in large part due to a negative game script that saw Baltimore leading for nearly three full quarters and leading by two scores for a majority of the second half. Prior to the low-scoring affair on Sunday Night Football, Beckham had gone for double-digit points in three straight games and four times in five weeks.
The reason why he's above the likes of Reed, Samuel, Dortch, Hyatt, and company (your choice on how desperately you need TE with Freiermuth) is his playoff relevancy. He's been solid thus far despite very few WR-friendly game scripts but will get his share of potential high-volume games to end the year, drawing the 7th-easiest playoff schedule but one that offers even more appealing opportunities from a game script standpoint. Against Jacksonville, San Francisco, and Miami, Baltimore likely won't be putting games away early like they have so far this year, adding to Beckham's potential.
I'd be FAR more comfortable with Beckham in my lineup (especially with that schedule) than any other WR on waivers. With his role in the Ravens' offense, especially in the absence of Mark Andrews, Beckham appears to be a WR3/FLEX option going forward.
Jayden Reed (WR - Green Bay Packers)
Three straight weeks with a TD and his fifth time in six games with 11+ points. The rookie 2nd rounder is quickly becoming a focal point in the Packers' rising offense, leading Green Bay in targets for a third consecutive week in a 4-34-1 performance on 8 targets (16 additional yards on the ground). He's becoming more involved as the season progresses and is showing why he was a highly-touted prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Curtis Samuel (WR - Washington Commanders)
After returning from injury in Week 10 (limited role) and being ejected early in Week 11, Curtis Samuel returned to his typical self that we had seen earlier in the season, drawing a team-high 12 targets for 9 catches and 100 yards (19.0 points). We saw Samuel post 14+ points in three straight games earlier this year and go for 4+ catches in five straight; it's looking more like we'll see that type of volume for Samuel down the stretch here as Washington continues to play from behind with Sam Howell ranking among the league's top passers in attempts and yardage.
Pat Freiermuth (TE - Pittsburgh Steelers)
Welcome back, Pat Freiermuth! We had seen Freiermuth in a more typical role early in the season (7+ points in 2 of his first 3 games; only game under 7 points vs Cleveland, fewest PPG to TEs) before a Week 4 injury that kept him sidelined until Week 11, where he was still limited. In Week 12, we saw Freiermuth in his purest form now a week excluded from his hamstring injury and out of a Matt Canada offense, leading to an absurd 9-catch, 120-yard (21 points) performance on a team-high 11 targets.
I'm not expecting that type of production or volume on a weekly basis, but a more effective and pass-friendly Steelers' offense certainly offers top-5 upside for Freiermuth after what we had seen from him in the past (TE7 in 2022, TE13 as a rookie in 2021).
Greg Dortch (WR - Arizona Cardinals)
Dortch was a waiver wire gem at points last year and it's looking like he may be that again this year. In his last 2 games, he's stood out as Murray's definitive WR2 behind Marquise Brown with Michael Wilson out the last two games, totaling 17 targets, 103 yards, and a TD with 11+ points in each game. He's not going to be a high-efficiency guy, but that's not what you're expecting out of him.
Once Wilson returns (likely Week 15), it becomes a toss-up on who commands the secondary target share at WR with Wilson having been the WR2 prior to Murray's return but Dortch having an extensive history of being a go-to guy of Murray. At least until Wilson returns, Dortch appears a WR3/FLEX and likely to command a solid 8+ points as a volume play. He's a preferred short-term option but the upside is definitely there in a PPR format upon Wilson's return (though the security in role may not be).
One of the biggest and most pleasant surprises of the first half of the fantasy football season was Jaguars RB Travis Etienne. Since the draft and the throughout the offseason, there was speculation about what Etienne’s true workload would be in 2023 given the team’s acquisition of Tank Bigsby via the draft in the third round - however, through the first eight weeks of the season, Etienne laid that speculation to rest with an 80% snap share and 20.4 PPR points per game on average. As of late, though, Etienne has struggled a bit to return to his pre-bye week form.
Since Jacksonville’s Week 9 bye, Travis Etienne just hasn’t been the same running back he was in the first 8 games of the year.
Over the past three weeks, Etienne is averaging just a 55% snap share and 9.3 PPR fantasy points per game - a very significant downgrade in utilization compared to his first eight games of the year. He’s also failed to reach the end zone in any of his three games post-bye after scoring at least one touchdown in each of the four games before the bye.
It’s worth noting that Etienne was dealing with a chest injury during the game this past week against the Texans, which led to D’Ernest Johnson getting some additional run in the ground game compared to usual. But Etienne’s overall usage remains down over the past three games, and with tough matchups on tap against Cleveland and Baltimore in Weeks 14 and 15 (the Jags take on the Bengals in Week 13), fantasy managers might be forced to eat their vegetables with Travis Etienne in their starting lineups a la Josh Jacobs earlier in the season