Trevor Lawrence is OUT for Week 14 ❌

We hope this email finds you this morning with all of the players you placed your waiver claims on on your roster.

What’s in store:

• Trevor Lawrence avoided major injury. 😅 Phew. He’ll still be out a while, though.

• Oh, and Christian Kirk - he’s probably out for the season. It’s not guaranteed, but the Jaguars will be without two of their best players after Monday Night.

• QB/RB matchups to target and avoid this week. Zach brings you a few nuggets from his notebook ahead of Week 14.

• Michael Pittman Jr. is absolutely crushing it this year. 💪🏻 He hasn’t blown the doors off of any game, but he’s been everything he was drafted to be and more.

• Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence not ruled out for Week 14 with high ankle sprain; indication is that long-term injury has been avoided

  • Good news? Absolutely. But is Trevor Lawrence playing this week an outcome you should be banking on with potentially your fantasy season on the line? Probably not. High ankle sprains tend to be finicky, but they overwhelmingly result in players missing at least one game - and Lawrence has a short turnaround this week going from a Monday night game to a Sunday afternoon kickoff against a tough Cleveland defense in Week 14. Lawrence thankfully appears to have avoided a long-term injury at this point and it’s possible that he’s back and at 100% for Jacksonville’s playoff run in January, but that might not be the case for your fantasy football playoff run. Fantasy managers should absolutely find a potential replacement for Lawrence for the near future (*cough cough* Jake Browning *cough*) while also paying close attention to Lawrence’s status throughout the week. If C.J. Beathard has to draw the start on Sunday, the entire Jaguars offense would be downgraded significantly.

• Jaguars WR Christian Kirk likely done for season after suffering core injury in Week 13 vs Bengals

  • While it remains to be seen for certain that Kirk will miss the rest of 2023, things are certainly trending that way with the belief being that Kirk will need surgery to address the injury. Kirk was hurt on the first drive of the game after reeling in a 26-yard reception and exited the game without returning. In Kirk’s place, WR Parker Washington stepped up to the plate and was able to deliver a respectable 6/61/1 line against the Bengals secondary, out-producing teammates Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones. With Kirk out for the foreseeable future and potentially the rest of the way, Evan Engram and Ridley should be part of a tighter target distribution at the top while Parker Washington will slot in as an intriguing flex play in the coming weeks. However, the upside for all of these receivers has the potential to take a considerable hit given the fact that we could be subjected to multiple games of C.J. Beathard under center in Jacksonville moving forward.

• Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson expected to miss multiple weeks with ankle injury

  • Grab your nearest spoon and get ready for Ezekiel Elliott to eat. Now, this isn’t your average NFL offense he’ll be playing in – it’s a horrific offense – but lucky for us, the Patriots will be forced to have somebody out on the field catching passes and running the ball for 60 minutes on Sunday. Words cannot explain how much of an exclusive volume play Elliott is in New England’s offense this week against the Steelers, but 20+ touches is well within reach for the veteran ball carrier with Rhamondre Stevenson down for Week 14 and beyond and the Patriots’ passing game stuck in neutral. Stevenson’s injury comes as he was finally starting to dominate the backfield snaps in Week 13, but Elliott will likely be a low-RB2/flex play as long as Stevenson is out.

NE @ PIT (-6) 30

PIT: Allowing the 8th-fewest fantasy points to running backs over the last four weeks. Despite the tough matchup, Ezekiel Elliott is squarely in play against the Steelers given that he’s likely to inherit Rhamondre Stevenson’s workhorse role. He saw 22 opportunities last week and the Patriots passing offense is hot ass right now, so he’s got the opportunity to be peppered this week with targets. He’s a floor play low-RB2. 

NE: Allowing the fewest fantasy points to running backs over the last four weeks. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren royally fumbled the best matchup in fantasy football last week and now take on a Patriots defense that’s held their own despite New England's offensive struggles. Warren is still the preferred start but both will be fringe RB2s on the week given the tough matchup, short turnaround, and 30-point total in this one.

CAR @ NO (-5.5) 37.5

CAR: Allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. This stat is no fluke even with the Panthers having the worst record in football - they’ve kept Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud in check over the past six weeks. Regardless of whether it’s Carr or Winston under center for New Orleans, neither are likely to find a whole lot of fantasy success against a sneaky-stingy Panthers defense. 

CAR: Allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to RBs this season. Alvin Kamara will likely continue to be a big part of what the Saints want to do in the passing game, and the matchup is just about as good as it gets. Kamara has 4 or more catches and has finished as a fantasy RB1 in all but two of his nine starts this season, and this one should be no different. He’s a high RB1 in Week 14.

NO: Allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to RBs over the last four weeks. Chuba Hubbard has been the clear lead back since Miles Sanders went down with injury earlier this season, and he’s scored three touchdowns in the past two weeks. As long as the Saints don’t run away with this one, Hubbard will be squarely in the mid-low RB2 conversation this week.

HOU (-5.5) @ NYJ 33 WEATHER

NYJ: Allowing the 5th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season; 7th-fewest over past four games. Rain and wind could be a problem at MetLife and make life abnormally difficult for Stroud and the Texans passing game. You have to leave Stroud in your lineup at this point given the way he’s been playing, but definitely temper expectations. Normally the matchup wouldn’t be too much of an issue, but the Jets defense in the rain does not smell like fantasy points to me.

NYJ: Allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs over the past four games; 7th-most season long. Considering the weather as mentioned before, this could be a big game for Singletary and Pierce. If the wind and rain are as bad as they’re saying they’re going to be, both RBs could be in line for 15+ touches.

HOU: Allowing the 6th-fewest fantasy points to RBs over the past four weeks. The Jets might have no choice but to run the ball profusely in this one given their situation at quarterback and the anticipated weather. Breece Hall has been quiet these past few weeks but not unstartable, and will likely get his volume again. He’s a solid RB2 against the Falcons.

PHI @ DAL (-3) 53

PHI: Allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and over the past four weeks. Prescott continues to be served excellent matchups on a silver platter - he’s thrown for three touchdowns in each of his past two games against Philadelphia at home and enters on a streak of six straight games of 2+ passing touchdowns. Prescott finished as the QB2 back in Week 9 against the Eagles, and he’s got a shot as the overall QB1 on the week again.

PHI: Allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. The Eagles are vulnerable on the back end and the Cowboys would be wise to let Dak Prescott take the reins in this game. Pollard has scored in three straight contests and could very well do so again with the way Dallas’ offense is playing; they’re averaging 44.5 points per game at home over their past four with 40+ points in each of those games. He’s worth a look as a low-RB1 this week even in the tough matchup.

DAL: Allowing the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to RBs this season; 4th-fewest over past four weeks. The Eagles weren’t able to get anything going against Dallas a few weeks ago in Philly, and we’re still waiting to hear about D’Andre Swift’s status. He’ll be a mid-low RB2 at best if he plays, and Gainwell would be a mid-RB3 if he got the start and Swift couldn’t go.

The spotlight this week has been on one of the most under-appreciated wide receivers in the NFL in Buccaneers WR Mike Evans, who just eclipsed the 1000-yard threshold for the tenth time in his ten seasons in the league. He’s earned his flowers and he’s getting them from the fantasy football and NFL community at large, but here at Upper Hand, we’d like to shed light on another under-appreciated pass catcher who’s also played exceptionally well as of late despite backup QB play and plenty of target competition: Michael Pittman Jr.

Pittman has been not only one of the most consistent fantasy producers at the wide receiver position in 2023, but he’s also been one of the most productive - especially over the past six weeks. Since Week 8, Michael Pittman Jr. is averaging 19.4 PPR points per game - good for the WR8 in that span - and leads the NFL in target share in that same time frame (33.1%). He’s also third in the NFL in total receptions since Week 8, and has scored no fewer than 14.4 PPR points in a game since Week 5.

But it’s not as if this six game stretch as of late has inflated Pittman’s season-long stats or tainted his season-long dependability; Pittman has finished as a top-16 WR in eight of his twelve games on the year, including seven straight times since Week 6. He’s also caught at least 8 passes in nine of his twelve games on the year, and has at least 10 targets in eight of them. That’s resulted in just one game under 10 PPR points on the year in Week 4 and the second-highest Upper Hand Fantasy consistency rating of any wide receiver this season, trailing just Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown.