Two ⭐️ WRs are day-to-day heading into the fantasy playoffs!

Honestly, Tyreek Hill probably delivered a lot of people to the 1 or 2 seed in their playoff brackets. If you’re on bye, you’re sitting pretty while Tyreek Hill works through this ankle injury.

What’s in store:

• Tyreek Hill opens the first week of the fantasy playoffs with a question mark. He’s gotten his fantasy managers this far, but could he leave them hanging when it matters most?

• Justin Herbert is officially out for the year. 😔 Make sure to (Easton) Stick with Keenan Allen in your starting lineup, though.

• Combing through Zach’s initial Week 15 rankings. See which notably matchups you should pay attention to this week.

• It’s Texans week for Derrick Henry. 😈 He has absolutely crushed Houston in his last six games he’s played against them.

• Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill reportedly ‘day-to-day’ with ankle injury per HC Mike McDaniel, status for Sunday in flux

  • It was one of the more confusing sequences we’ve seen this season on Monday night, with Tyreek Hill being tackled awkwardly as he ran out of bounds. He stayed down for a solid 30 seconds, then sprang up and pretty much sprinted to the sideline - only to be held out of the game for the rest of the first half. He then played on a pitch count the rest of the way. It’s officially an ankle injury for Tyreek, who will now have to have his status for this weekend monitored around the clock with the first week of the fantasy playoffs fast approaching. With Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins offense as a unit took a significant step back, so Tua would be downgraded if Hill ultimately wouldn’t be able to suit up for Miami’s game against the Jets this Sunday. We’ll know more about his status later in the week, but fantasy managers don’t need to panic just yet with a full week of practices between now and this weekend.

• Chargers QB Justin Herbert officially ruled out for the rest of 2023 following surgery to his broken finger

  • Given the Chargers’ 5-8 record and the fact that there are only four games remaining in the regular season, it would have made no sense to rush Herbert back into the lineup with the season already out the window. Herbert will now head to injured reserve where he’ll remain for the rest of the year, leaving fantasy managers to fend for themselves on the waiver wire after largely delivering quality performances for most of the season. In Herbert’s absence, QB Easton Stick is slated to get the start for LA in Week 15 and will have to do his best Herbert impression if Keenan Allen is to maintain his status as a fantasy WR1. Regardless of who’s under center, though, Allen should be trusted as a low-WR1 this week and be given the benefit of the doubt to open the fantasy playoffs. Luckily for us, he’s an elite target earner and shouldn’t have trouble getting open and in front of Stick on a regular basis against the Raiders defense.

• Vikings name QB Nick Mullens as starting quarterback for Week 15 vs Bengals, sending the Passtronaut to the bench

  • It was fun while it lasted, but after two abysmal showings in back to back weeks for Dobbs, the Vikings are turning things over to Mullens as we approach Minnesota’s Week 15 matchup against the Bengals. None of the Vikings weapons in the passing game have been startable over the past three weeks with Josh Dobbs under center, but the move to Mullens should inspire at least enough confidence in fantasy managers – or maybe optimism – to consider starting the Vikings pass catchers this week against Cincinnati. On his own, Mullens will be a low-QB2 start against the Bengals at best this week – but will likely find himself in many lineups this week given the rash of QB injuries that have plagued the NFL and fantasy teams alike in 2023.

• The easy 1-2-3 at the top of my quarterback rankings are Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Dak Prescott. Seattle is getting gashed by everyone that plays them – Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, and Sam Howell have all had 20+ fantasy point outings against them in the past five weeks. And now Jalen Hurts gets them coming off just his third career single-digit fantasy performance - he’s averaging 25 points per game in two games coming off single-digit performances. Not to mention that Seattle is a top-12 matchup for fantasy quarterbacks this year - Hurts is easily QB1 for me.

• Dak and Josh Allen play each other this week and there should be a lot of points in this one. Vegas says this should be the highest scoring game of the weekend with an over/under of 50.5 – and I could see a shootout here. Dallas is allowing a full touchdown more per game to opposing offenses on the road compared to at home (opponents average 14 points per game in Dallas vs. 21 points per game when Dallas is visiting). Josh Allen has been hot these past two weeks and it has all the makings of a marquee matchup - which means you start everyone.

• Lamar and Purdy round out the top-5 – both have fantastic matchups against the Jaguars and Cardinals, respectively, and Lamar gets the edge over Purdy because his ceiling is higher. The Ravens are figuring out their passing game at a good time – OBJ and Zay Flowers are the clear top targets and Lamar is hitting them both downfield. Purdy might be the third-safest play of the week though behind Allen and Hurts – Arizona is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and San Francisco is just rolling people right now.

• Things get more complicated down the board… Mahomes is at 6 in a very neutral matchup against the Patriots, followed by Matthew Stafford, Sam Howell, and Justin Fields at 7, 8, and 9. Another game where I smell a shootout, and Vegas again agrees – the Rams/Commanders game has the second-highest total of the week at 49. The Commanders are horrific on the backend and allow the second most fantasy points to wide receivers, and if Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are eating, that means so is Stafford. Stafford also leads the NFL in touchdown passes over the past three weeks with 10, so you can bet your bottom dollar he’ll still hold that after this silver platter of a matchup he’s been served against Washington. 

• It would follow, then, that if the Rams are scoring points, then the Commanders are going to be playing catch-up. I have Sam Howell at 8 – he’s been slinging it all around the yard this season, and I like him to break 300 yards passing this game and toss two scores against a Rams defense that has let up some points to QBs as of late – LA is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs over the past four weeks. And don’t let the bye week make you forget that Sam Howell is averaging just under 20 points per game this season while finishing inside the top-10 at the position six weeks in a row, and eight times in the last nine.

Titans RB Derrick Henry has had a real nose for the end zone over the past three weeks, scoring six touchdowns on the ground in that span compared to just four touchdowns on the ground through his ten games of the year. While the usage and the rushing yards haven’t been there this season like they’ve been over the past few years, he’s hitting his stride in December the same way vintage Henry would have as he heads into a matchup against the Texans in the first week of the fantasy playoffs – one that has been extremely good to him since 2019.

Henry missed both matchups against the Texans in 2021 due to injury – a year where he was on an absolutely ridiculous pace through eight games. But in the six games he’s played against the Texans since 2019, Henry has absolutely annihilated Houston’s defense in each one of them – setting up a very juicy date with the Titans’ division rival in Week 15. You want stats? We’ve got ‘em.

In those six games against the Texans, Derrick Henry is averaging 29.6 PPR fantasy points, 184 rushing yards, and 1.7 touchdowns per game dating back to 2020. That includes three 210+ rush yard, 2 touchdown performances in his last four games against Houston, all of which saw him score in excess of 35 fantasy points on each day. In 2022 alone, Henry averaged 27.4 fantasy points and 173 yards per game to go along with three touchdowns in two dominating fantasy performances against his divisional foe.

Has Henry noticeably slowed down a bit this season? Sure. And it would obviously be ill-advised to base our perception of Henry in 2023 around what we’ve seen from him in years past - but it’s certainly worth mentioning that there’s precedence for a big game from Henry against the Texans in the opening round of the fantasy playoffs, especially with the Texans coming into the game banged up on offense. A positive game script could open the door for a vintage Derrick Henry performance.